New Tradesports rankings

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DEMOCRATS

Nomination
Clinton 57.0
Obama 41.1
Edwards 1.0
Gore 0.9
Richardson 0.1

Nevada
Clinton 61.0
Obama 40.0
Edwards 1.8

South Carolina
Obama 78.0
Clinton 20.0
Edwards 1.3

REPUBLICANS
McCain 38.0
Guiliani 20.5
Romney 20.2
Huckabee 14.6
Paul 2.7
Thompson 2.4
Gingrich 0.6
Rice 0.5
Bloomberg 0.1


Nevada
Romney 94.9
McCain 9.0
Huckabee 2.3 (Field)
Giuliani 1.0
Thompson 0.5


South Carolina
Huckabee 55.0 (Field)
McCain 45.0
Thompson 3.0
Romney 0.1
Giuliani 0.1

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Iowa Electronic Markets



McCain 42.4
Romney 23.0
Giuliani 17.5
Huckabee 16.0
Thompson 3.0
Rest of Field 2.0




Clinton 56.8
Obama 40.5
Edwards 3.1
Rest of Field 0.7

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McCain at 48.0 to win Republican nomination, 82.0 to win SC

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And now McCain surges to 52.0 to win GOP nom.

first GOP transaction above 50 since McCain in early January 2007.

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Dem Nevada market is going a little apesh**t, for whatever reason

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Romney surge to 27.5.  McCain hovering around a coin-flip. 

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IEM

Clinton 63.3
Obama 33.0
Edwards 1.9
Rest of Field 1.0

McCain 48.5
Romney 27.6
Giuliani 15.1
Huckabee 5.4
Rest of Field 1.3
Thompson 0.7

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get out of Sununu now that you're up....  it's not worth the fight...

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Rudy's chances of winning the nomination are now greater than his price to win Florida, which makes absolutely no sense to me...



and Gore > Edwards

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IEM prices last midnight

Clinton 64.3
Obama 33.7
Edwards 1.1
Rest of Field 1.0


McCain 52.5
Romney 30.1
Giuliani 14.3
Huckabee 3.1
Rest of Field 1.4
Thompson 0.3

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IEM last night

McCain 47.6 (-4.9)
Romney 37.7 (+7.6)
Giuliani 9.4 (-4.9)
Huckabee 2.6 (-0.5)
Rest of Field 1.7 (+0.3)
Thompson 0.2 (-0.1)

Clinton 64.0 (-0.3)
Obama 33.7 (nc)
Edwards 1.1 (nc)
Rest of Field 0.8 (-0.2)

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IEM

Clinton 63.8 (-0.2)
Obama 34.8 (+1.1)
Edwards 1.7 (+0.6)
Rest of Field 0.7 (-0.1)


McCain 47.3 (-0.3)
Romney 38.4 (+0.7)
Giuliani 7.7 (-1.7)
Huckabee 3.8 (+1.2)
Rest of Field 1.7 (0)
Thompson 0.3 (+0.1)

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Clinton 60.0 (-3.8 )
Obama 38.5 (+4.9)
Edwards 0.7 (-1.0)
Rest of Field 0.7 (0)




McCain 53.5 (+6.2)
Romney 34.9 (-3.5)
Giuliani 7.9 (+0.2)
Huckabee 2.9 (-0.9)
Rest of Field 1.8 (-0.1)
Thompson 0.4 (+0.1)

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I can't even log on to Intrade right now.  too much action

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Obama has rallied in the past hour to 44.0

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Obama once again the favorite, at 54.8.  crazy few hours on the market

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winning individual

Obama 36.5
McCain 36.1
Clinton 26.5
Gore 1.0
Bloomberg 0.6
Huckabee 0.4
Romney 0.3
Paul 0.3
Giuliani 0.2
Edwards 0.1
Thompson 0.1

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Edwards 0.1 (LOL)
Thompson 0.1 (C'mon)

You can't sell a share for $0, so 0.1 is as low as it gets.

well, they still have a bid.

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Obama is very overvalued

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Obama surge, of course.  hit a record high of 82 a little while ago.


Obama 78.5
Clinton 21.8
Gore 1.3
Edwards 0.2


McCain 95.5
Giuliani 1.3
Paul 1.2
Huckabee 0.9
Romney 0.6
Rice 0.4
Gingrich 0.2
Thompson 0.2

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also, Obama has crossed 50 in winning individual.  Clinton down to 12.

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LOL, Giuliani higher than Huckabee and Paul.

the Rudy stock went a bit batsh**t earlier, with somebody buying out all the offers to 2.0.  the current bid/ask split is 1.3/14.7.

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Ohio

Clinton 52.0
Obama 45.1

Texas

Obama 67.0
Clinton 30.0

Vermont

Obama 92.0
Clinton 10.1

Rhode Island

Obama 80.0
Clinton 25.0

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Rhode Island

Obama 80.0
Clinton 25.0

Buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy

Buy who?

he means Clinton, as RI's demographics favor Clinton, in theory.  but then again - if Worcester County + a few %'s worth of blacks voted on March 4, would Obama win it?  maybe, maybe not.  I wouldn't touch the market.

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Democratic Rest of Field is up to 3.6 on IEM.  odd.