New Tradesports rankings

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Democratic Rest of Field is up to 3.6 on IEM.  odd.

Hoping for a brokered convention, I guess.

or the scenario opebo outlined in the other thread.

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How can they be so confident Obama will win RI?

the Obama Rhode Island stock collapsed after the Rasmussen poll came out showing Clinton up double digits.

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Al Gore now has a 150% chance of winning the election if nominated.

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the most likely scenario for Gore winning without being nominated involves Obama being assassinated in September or October and Democrats replacing him with Gore on the ballot.

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Clinton and Obama surge in Dem VP market, presumably due to Hillary's comment.

Obama 16.8 (meaning, the market gives him a greater than 50% chance of being VP if he is not nominated for president)
Webb 10.2
Clinton 10.0
Clark 6.5
Richardson 6.2
Gore 5.1
...
Field 40.0

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Intrade (the new name for Tradesports) punters think that Clinton is more electable than Obama. My take is that they are both massively overvalued.

extrapolating the winning individual vs. nomination winner isn't very useful.  Gore has been over 100% to win the general if nominated for a while now.

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Democratic nomination
Obama 73.2
Clinton 26.5
Gore 2.5 (stock is on fire)
Edwards 0.3

Republican nomination
McCain 95.0
Paul 1.9
Giuliani 1.6
Romney 0.8
Huckabee 0.6
Rice 0.4
Gingrich 0.2
Thompson 0.1

Winning party
Democratic 60.2
Republican 41.0
Field 1.0

Winning Individual
Obama 41.4
McCain 39.8
Clinton 18.5
Gore 2.3
Paul 0.7
Bloomberg 0.4
Giuliani 0.2
Romney 0.2
Huckabee 0.1
Edwards 0.1
Field 0.1

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if they were 'lagging indicators' McCain would be favored to win the presidency right now.

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if they were 'lagging indicators' McCain would be favored to win the presidency right now.

Because of the Wright affair?

because he leads Obama and Clinton in nearly every national poll.

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Gore at 3.0 to win the Democratic nomination, btw.

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Democratic nomination
Obama 80.1
Clinton 18.1
Gore 4.0
Edwards 0.2

Republican nomination
McCain 95.0
Giuliani 1.7
Paul 1.5
Romney 1.1
Rice 0.7
Huckabee 0.5
Gingrich 0.3
Thompson 0.2

Winning party
Democratic 59.3
Republican 38.0
Field 0.7

Winning Individual
Obama 47.9
McCain 39.6
Clinton 11.5
Gore 2.5
Paul 0.4
Bloomberg 0.3
Giuliani 0.2
Romney 0.2
Huckabee 0.1
Edwards 0.1
Field 0.1

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Republican nomination
McCain 95.0
Giuliani 1.7
Paul 1.5
Romney 1.1
Rice 0.7
Huckabee 0.5
Gingrich 0.3
Thompson 0.2

Um, why is McCain still below 100.0? Do some assume that he could die of old age prior to the convention or what?

or scandal or assassination or incapacitation.  all of those little probabilities add up to around 5%.

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Democratic nomination
Obama 80.0
Clinton 17.3
Gore 4.8
Edwards 0.2

Republican nomination
McCain 94.1
Giuliani 1.7
Paul 1.5
Romney 1.4
Rice 0.5
Huckabee 0.5
Gingrich 0.3
Thompson 0.2

Winning party
Democratic 59.3
Republican 38.0
Field 0.7

Winning Individual
Obama 47.4
McCain 39.7
Clinton 12.1
Gore 4.5
Paul 0.6
Bloomberg 0.3
Giuliani 0.3
Romney 0.3
Edwards 0.2
Huckabee 0.1
Field 0.1

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Iowa Electronic Markets numbers...



Obama 79.1
Clinton 16.7
Rest of Field 3.6
Edwards 0.1

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hilarious new stock:

NEW.REP.VP.CLINTON

current bid is 0.1 and ask is 3.0.