Ohio and Missouri

[© tweed]

Could Virginia be in play?

Only if we pick Warner as VP.

[© tweed]

There's a scenario in which Bush takes CA.  It involves the capture of OBL, establishment of a peaceful stable democracy in Iraq, the DOW at 15,000, and mass conversions to Evangelical Protestantism.

In other words, "not likely."  Bush will take PA, MI, IA, WI, OR, MN, and possibly NJ and IL before he'll take CA.

Bush has a much better chance at Calfornia than you're letting on.  Gore only won California by 12% or so...so a 6% swing gives it to Bush.

[© tweed]

Bush has a much better chance at Calfornia than you're letting on.  Gore only won California by 12% or so...so a 6% swing gives it to Bush.

It doesn't sound like much of a swing, unless you look at it this way: Gore won by 1.3 million votes.  So you're talking about a swing of 650,000 voters.  Yes, there is a stong conservative base in the Golden State, but not nearly as strong as the millions of rabid Bush-haters in SF and LA who will come out in droves to vote for ANY Democrat.  I just don't see any chance for Bush here.

well, it does take alot to swing 1.3 millions voters.