Who will win in Hawaii?

[Vega]

You forgot the Independent, former Mayor of Honolulu Mufi Hannemann.

[Vega]

Mufi Hanneman isn't going to win, which is why he wasn't put in the poll.

He's still a major candidate who is polling at above 10% in every poll since he announced his run.

[Vega]

Ige should win, unless Democrat infighting persists.

Less than 1/3 of Democrats voted against Ige. I don't think unity should be a huge issue.

And Abercrombie endorsed Ige

To be honest, I think that if for some reason Ige would call Abercrombie and ask him to come campaign with him, Abercrombie would be there in a heart beat. Though I don't think that would help Ige.

Abercrombie actually went to Ige's election party and enthusiastically endorsed him and gave a speech. So yeah.

[Vega]

Ige, by a smaller than expected but sufficient margin.

Since Aiona leads in the polls, if Ige wins by half a point it won't be smaller than expected.

He lead in one poll (a Hawaii poll, mind you), against Ige.

I'm waiting for someone to poll the race now that Ige won.