Is an Israeli strike on Iran imminent? (user search)
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  Is an Israeli strike on Iran imminent? (search mode)
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Author Topic: Is an Israeli strike on Iran imminent?  (Read 2653 times)
Mr. Morden
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« on: August 16, 2012, 07:25:13 PM »

Of course Iran is unlikely to attack Israel out of the blue.  But that doesn't mean that MAD is always going to work, or that Iranian nukes wouldn't increase the probability of nuclear weapons eventually being used.  Read Fred Kaplan on this:

http://www.pasadenastarnews.com/opinions/ci_20396836/op-ed-why-israel-may-attack-iran-before

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I believe there was also a ~30 minute or so flight time for the ICBMs between the US and USSR, whereas the flight time between Iran and Israel would be much shorter, so any decision on retaliation to an apparent attack would have to be made in a split second.

That said, I'm not sure there's much that can be done to stop the Iranians from getting nukes if they really want them (as opposed to simply slowing them down).
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Mr. Morden
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Posts: 44,066
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« Reply #1 on: August 17, 2012, 04:56:41 AM »

Morden, India and Pakistan are closer by than Iran and Israel.

Yes, and that's not exactly the safest situation in the world either.

My point is that any pair of nations with nukes who have an antagonistic relationship with each other is something worth worrying about.  You can't assume that because MAD has worked since the 1940s, that it's going to work forever.
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