The "Who is running?" tea leaves thread

[Mr. Morden]

Rand Paul switched his vote for Hagel and the far right is livid; apparently he's the latest to fail the guillotine test. Yesterday he was the savior and now he's Benedict Arnold.

Right, but isn't he in an impossible situation on foreign policy in any case?  The majority of the party is still fairly hawkish, but Paul's base within the party is not, and in fact presumably agrees more with Hagel on foreign policy than the rest of the party.

[Mr. Morden]

Santorum headed to Iowa in April to be the keynote speaker at the annual Iowa Faith and Freedom Coalition Spring Kickoff:

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2013/02/26/2016-watch-its-never-too-early-to-go-to-iowa/

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[Mr. Morden]

Rubio is apparently doing a full court press to lock down as many big dollar Republican donors on Wall Street as he can get, in anticipation of a presumed 2016 presidential campaign:

http://www.politico.com/story/2013/02/marco-rubio-courts-wall-street-88144.html?hp=t1_3

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Here's a picture of Rubio posing with Scharzman and penguins(?):



The article also notes other meetings between Wall Street donors and Rand Paul, Paul Ryan, Bobby Jindal, and (in his capacity at the NRSC, not likely for a presidential campaign of his own) Rob Portman.

Christie is limited in his national fundraising ability because of New Jersey's particularly strict fundraising laws.  However:

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Of course, O'Malley leaves office in January 2015, so he'll be free of any such fundraising limitations by the time he launches his presidential campaign.  Jindal will also be out of office in January 2016, but I guess Christie and Cuomo would have to resign from office if they want to run for president while having unfettered ability to raise money from big banks.  But someone can correct me if I have that wrong?

[Mr. Morden]

Christie does have some big dollar donors of his own, and one billionaire/influential Christie donor says that he's in no danger of losing them over his supposed conservative apostasies:

http://www.nationalreview.com/corner/341695/christie-backers-still-eyeing-2016-robert-costa

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[Mr. Morden]

Cuomo is planning a string of high profile fundraisers over the next six months, including two in Florida.  He insists it's not because of 2016:

http://www.politico.com/story/2013/02/andrew-cuomo-plans-mega-fundraisers-87992.html

[Mr. Morden]

Jeb Bush, Christie, Cruz, Rubio, and Walker will all participate in a fundraising event for the RNC (being held in Florida) over the weekend of March 9-10:

http://www.politico.com/story/2013/02/rnc-event-snags-2016-hopefuls-88267.html?hp=r2

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[Mr. Morden]

Walker says he enjoys the speculation that he might run for prez in 2016, because it means he must be doing a good job as governor:

http://www.chron.com/news/article/Walker-enjoys-talk-of-2016-presidential-run-4318017.php

[Mr. Morden]

Condoleezza Rice on whether she'll ever run for office:

http://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/blog-summaries/285811-rice-dampens-rumors-about-run-for-2016

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[Mr. Morden]

Some news on Schweitzer: That poll of him being ahead in the 2014 Senate race in Montana was posted on his Facebook page, but Schweitzer said it was hist staff who posted it, not him:

http://www.kpax.com/news/poll-schweitzer-would-beat-baucus-in-senate-race/

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Why do you tease us Brian Schweitzer?  He said in the quote above that he would have big news for us in the next week or so, but it's been nearly two weeks, and still nothing.

In any case, I'm guessing that the "big news" is just something like the creation of a PAC.

[Mr. Morden]

Various Wisconsin-based journalists are convinced that Walker is planning to run in 2016 (though I'd still say that he opts out if Ryan runs):

http://host.madison.com/news/local/govt-and-politics/is-scott-walker-preparing-to-run-for-president/article_7d117bfc-7f90-11e2-8812-001a4bcf887a.html

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[Mr. Morden]

Haslam says he's not running:

http://www.wbir.com/news/article/257917/2/Haslam-says-hes-not-considering-running-for-president-in-2016

[Mr. Morden]

Who?

Bill Haslam, governor of Tennessee.

In any case, Jeb Bush is out promoting his new book now, and keeps getting asked about 2016.  His answers tend to be along these lines:

http://www.nationalreview.com/corner/342186/jeb-bush-2016-ive-decided-not-think-about-it-while-andrew-johnson

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[Mr. Morden]

Rand Paul again says that he's "seriously thinking about running", and that his potential campaign would be different from his father's:

http://www.politico.com/story/2013/03/rand-paul-seriously-weighing-2016-bid-88611.html?hp=t1_3

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What would be most likely to convince Paul *not* to run?  His family:

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[Mr. Morden]

O'Malley to South Carolina on March 23:

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2013/03/08/2016-watch-omalley-to-stop-in-south-carolina/

though it's not clear if it's the same event I already mentioned here:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=164982.msg3638771#msg3638771

What's the deal again with Paul's filing deadlines to keep his Senate seat? Isn't it sometime in Feb? I suspect Paul will run to get into the 2015 debates but he will drop out to keep his Senate seat.

But what if he wins IA and becomes the leading anti-Christie? Imagine if he were in the same situation as Santorum, with a mathematical chance but unlikely to win. Does he still drop out or stay in?

Yes, the filing deadline for that Senate seat is in February 2016, and Paul can't legally run for both prez and senate at the same time.  It violates Kentucky law.  (Rubio and Ryan don't have this problem.  Their filing deadlines for their seats are in June 2016, so they could both run for prez at least until the nomination is decided.  Then if they don't win the nomination, run for reelection for their current seats.)

It's true that Paul could just run to get in the debates, and then drop out when the filing deadline for his Senate seat comes up, but the only candidates who really ever do that sort of thing are folks like Tom Tancredo, who are stuck at 1%.  If Paul does nearly as well as his father did in IA and NH in 2012 (~20% or more of the vote and in the top 3), then he'd look absolutely ridiculous if he bailed on his presidential campaign to run for senate.  How the heck would he explain that to the people who worked on his campaign and donated money to him, if he bailed on the presidential campaign when he's still in the mix?  He'd look foolish.

That's why I think he really has to decide one or the other.  Presidential campaign or senate campaign.  Now sure, if he's mired at 10% or so in the polls and does poorly in both Iowa and NH, then he could drop out and run for Senate.  But if he's still in the mix of the top tier, then it's hard to see him skipping out to remain in the Senate.

[Mr. Morden]

Here's the exact quote from Ryan on Fox News Sunday:

http://www.foxnews.com/on-air/fox-news-sunday-chris-wallace/2013/03/10/rep-paul-ryan-previews-his-new-budget-former-gov-jeb-bush-talks-immigration-2016

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[Mr. Morden]

The Hill on the dance between Bush and Rubio regarding which of them will run:

http://thehill.com/blogs/pundits-blog/campaign/287399-jeb-vs-marco-match-up-in-2016-unlikely

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[Mr. Morden]

Walker to Iowa:

http://www.jsonline.com/news/statepolitics/gov-scottt-walker-to-headline-iowa-gop-fundraiser-f395hch-197989751.html

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[Mr. Morden]

Walker getting more overt about being interested in running:

http://www.politico.com/story/2013/03/walker-opens-up-about-white-house-ambitions-88938.html?hp=t1_3

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Keep in mind, unlike, say, Martin O'Malley, Walker still has to win reelection before the 2016 presidential contest.  Not just that, but win reelection in a swing state.  Normally, in such a circumstance, you'd want to downplay any talk of possibly leaving the job you'll be running for next year.  But Walker is instead being more open about his interest in bigger and better things.

[Mr. Morden]

In his CPAC speech, Carson announced that he was retiring from his medical practice in order to consider other "things that could be done".  He spent his speech continually teasing the audience about a potential run for president.  Last week, he also told NPR that he had no desire to run for Congress:

http://www.npr.org/2013/03/11/174016250/dr-ben-carson-healthcare-is-upside-down

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Prez16 also notes that Carson won't definitively describe himself as a Republican, even though his stated political positions would surely label him as a conservative:

http://www.prez16.com/2013/03/does-ben-carson-belong-on-prez16.html

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[Mr. Morden]

http://therun2016.com/omalley-to-israel/

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[Mr. Morden]

Big news on the Paul front is that an anonymous adviser of his says that they've already started having meetings about a 2016 presidential campaign:

http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-250_162-57574780/could-rand-paul-be-the-2016-gop-presidential-nominee/

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Meanwhile in Christie-world, the NJ gov appears to be fundraising like mad, and the speculation is that he wants to run up the score as much as possible in November, so as to show that he's a winner, and wow national donors with his electoral prowess:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-03-18/christie-hoards-cash-as-rout-key-to-2016-white-house-bid.html

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[Mr. Morden]

Rand Paul will headline the May 10 Lincoln Dinner in Cedar Rapids, Iowa, putting him Iowa 13 days before Scott Walker:

http://therun2016.com/rand-paul-headlining-cedar-rapids-dinner/

I've harped on Warren's apparent lack of interest in a presidential run before, but she's finally doing something that's at least consistent with presidential ambition.....writing a book:

http://www.boston.com/politicalintelligence/2013/03/19/elizabeth-warren-shopping-book-proposal-her-experiences-fighting-wall-street-washington/JCt1jBVyBimI6kxdQFFhNO/story.html

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[Mr. Morden]

Carson likes Rand Paul, but says he still might run himself:

http://www.nationalreview.com/corner/343337/ben-carson-2016-i-rand-i-may-run-too-andrew-johnson

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[Mr. Morden]

Boehner answers the question that no one was wondering about, in saying that he has no desire to be president:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2013/03/20/boehner-says-he-has-no-interest-in-being-president/

Meanwhile, Ryan says that he has no plans to follow Paul, Rubio, Santorum, and Walker to Iowa any time soon:

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2013/03/20/ryan-talks-debt-ceiling-2016/

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[Mr. Morden]

Immigration hawks turn to Jindal. I doubt he hammers them on this, just lets it blow up on the tarmac and say "I was always against it."

http://www.weeklystandard.com/blogs/immigration-hawks-turn-their-lonely-eyes-bobby-jindal_708737.html

I've been saying that with so many GOP 2016ers jumping on the comprehensive immigration bandwagon (semantics aside), someone has to emerge to try and grab the support of the nativist wing. Romney did it. They are just begging for someone to pander to them.

Chait compares the prospective 2016 candidates' positioning on immigration to the actions of a cartel:

http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2013/03/gop-candidates-form-pro-immigration-cartel.html

That is, they seem to have collectively agreed that it's important for the party to embrace the "reformist" position, but it only works if, like a cartel, they agree not to undercut each other.

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