latest Betfair odds

[Mr. Morden]

This is where things stood roughly six months ago, just after Trump launched his exploratory committee:

GOP nomination

Bush 33.9
Walker 21.7
Rubio 17.4
Paul 10.5
Christie 4.0
Huckabee 3.8
Cruz 3.4
Perry 3.4
Carson 2.9
Pence 2.6
Trump 2.5

Winning individual

Clinton 41.5
Bush 17.4
Rubio 8.4
Walker 7.8
Paul 5.3
Warren 5.3
Biden 3.3
Christie 1.9

Kudos to anyone who bought shares of Trump or Carson back then.

[Mr. Morden]

Post-debate update: Fiorina on fire, nearly doubling in the past 24 hours (and *more* than doubling on winning individual).  She’s now up to fourth place.  Meanwhile, Walker’s crash continues.  Rubio back up to second place.

Up: Biden, Rubio, Fiorina
Down: Sanders, Trump, Carson, Walker

Democrats
Clinton 67.6
Biden 18.0
Sanders 15.8

Republicans
Bush 35.8
Rubio 16.8
Trump 13.8
Fiorina 10.5
Carson 7.0
Walker 6.8
Kasich 6.4
Cruz 3.7
Christie 3.4
Huckabee 3.4

Winning Individual
Clinton 40.7
Bush 17.7
Biden 8.8
Sanders 7.5
Trump 7.5
Rubio 6.0
Fiorina 3.8

[Mr. Morden]

Walker crashing even more—now below 6, and tied with Kasich.  Walker was above 20 back in early June.

Bush 35.6
Rubio 16.8
Trump 13.4
Fiorina 10.0
Carson 6.2
Kasich 5.8
Walker 5.8
Christie 4.2
Cruz 3.6
Huckabee 3.4

[Mr. Morden]

Democrats
Clinton 67.6
Biden 18.6
Sanders 14.5

Republicans
Bush 35.6
Rubio 17.4
Trump 14.1
Fiorina 10.0
Walker 6.5
Carson 6.2
Kasich 5.5
Christie 4.2
Huckabee 3.8
Cruz 3.6

Four years ago at about this time on Intrade:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=93015.msg3027700#msg3027700

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Eight years ago at about this time on Intrade:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=50282.msg1299213#msg1299213

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[Mr. Morden]

How in the world can Betfair still be favoring Bush

It's not just Betfair.  Every major bookie still prices Bush as the favorite to win the nomination.

[Mr. Morden]

Christie moves ahead of Kasich.  Meanwhile, Biden approaches 20.

Democrats
Clinton 67.6
Biden 19.3
Sanders 13.8

Republicans
Bush 35.6
Rubio 17.4
Trump 14.1
Fiorina 10.0
Walker 6.5
Carson 5.4
Christie 5.3
Kasich 4.8
Huckabee 3.8
Cruz 3.6

Four years ago at about this time on Intrade:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=93015.msg3029838#msg3029838

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[Mr. Morden]

Since someone else asked me about where I get these #s from, I go to Oddschecker:

http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/us-politics/us-presidential-election-2016/republican-candidate

and I have the “site settings” on the lefthand side of the screen set to “decimal”.  It lists all of the odds from different bookies, but most of those prices are set by bookies, not bettors.  “Betfair Exchange” (as distinct from regular “Betfair”) is near the righthand side, and they have prices set by individuals trading with each other.  Right now, for example, you’ve got Bush at 2.81.  1/2.81 = 0.356, so that translates to a 35.6% chance for Bush.

[Mr. Morden]

Walker drops out, and his share price drops to 0.4.  Updated GOP standings…

Up: Rubio, Fiorina
Down: Walker

Bush 35.5
Rubio 19.0
Trump 14.5
Fiorina 11.1
Carson 5.3
Kasich 4.8
Christie 4.5
Cruz 3.7
Huckabee 3.6
Paul 1.5

[Mr. Morden]

Biden and Rubio both hit 20.

Up: Biden, Rubio
Down: Trump

Democrats
Clinton 68.0
Biden 21.7
Sanders 13.1

Republicans
Bush 35.2
Rubio 20.0
Trump 12.8
Fiorina 10.7
Carson 5.8
Christie 4.8
Kasich 4.8
Cruz 4.2
Huckabee 3.7
Paul 1.5

Four years ago today on Intrade:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=93015.msg3031183#msg3031183

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[Mr. Morden]

Christie back up to 5.0:

Bush 34.5
Rubio 20.8
Trump 12.5
Fiorina 10.0
Carson 5.8
Christie 5.0
Kasich 4.3
Cruz 4.2
Huckabee 3.6
Paul 1.2

Four years ago today, Christie was thinking about running, which actually put him in third place on Intrade.  Fourth place was Palin, who was also only thinking about running:
 
https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=93015.msg3032774#msg3032774

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[Mr. Morden]

Trump losing ground.  Now below 10 and tied with Fiorina for 3rd place.  A month ago, he was at 17.4, and is now at 9.5, meaning a ~45% drop in share price over that time.

Democrats
Clinton 67.6
Biden 23.6
Sanders 12.5

Republicans
Bush 35.2
Rubio 21.7
Fiorina 9.5
Trump 9.5
Carson 6.2
Christie 5.3
Cruz 4.5
Kasich 4.3
Huckabee 3.6
Paul 1.2

Four years ago on Intrade at roughly this time:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=93015.msg3034307#msg3034307

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Eight years ago on Intrade at roughly this time:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=50282.msg1301635#msg1301635

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[Mr. Morden]

More Rubio surging and Bush dropping.  Trump rebounds, and alone in 3rd place again.

Up: Rubio, Trump
Down: Biden, Bush

Democrats
Clinton 67.6
Biden 20.8
Sanders 12.5

Republicans
Bush 32.4
Rubio 24.8
Trump 11.9
Fiorina 8.8
Carson 6.4
Christie 5.0
Cruz 4.3
Kasich 4.0
Huckabee 3.6
Paul 1.4

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=93015.msg3036235#msg3036235

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https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=50282.msg1302993#msg1302993

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[Mr. Morden]

Rubio’s closing the gap on Bush.  Will he be passing Bush for 1st place soon?

Democrats
Clinton 68.0
Biden 20.8
Sanders 12.8

Republicans
Bush 31.8
Rubio 26.6
Trump 11.6
Fiorina 9.1
Carson 6.5
Christie 4.8
Cruz 4.3
Kasich 4.0
Huckabee 3.6
Paul 1.4

Four years ago today on Intrade (when Christie was still toying with running):

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=93015.msg3037074#msg3037074

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Eight years ago at about this time on Intrade:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=50282.msg1304599#msg1304599

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[Mr. Morden]

The gap between Bush and Rubio continues to shrink.  Will Rubio soon retake the lead?  (He was leading just over a year ago, if you remember.)

Up: Clinton, Sanders, Trump
Down: Biden, Bush

Democrats
Clinton 69.0
Biden 19.3
Sanders 13.8

Republicans
Bush 30.5
Rubio 27.3
Trump 13.1
Fiorina 8.4
Carson 7.0
Christie 5.3
Cruz 4.3
Kasich 4.0
Huckabee 3.3
Jindal 1.3
Paul 1.2

Four years ago at about this time on Intrade (just before Christie said he wasn’t running):

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=93015.msg3040320#msg3040320

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Eight years ago at about this time on Intrade:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=50282.msg1306147#msg1306147

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[Mr. Morden]

Here's where things stood about a year ago:

Rubio 16.3
Paul 12.2
Bush 11.9
Christie 10.0
Perry 9.5
Romney 8.4
Cruz 6.0
Ryan 4.5
Walker 4.0
Huckabee 3.3

Remember when everyone was saying how overrated Rubio was?  Well, he's gained ground since then.

[Mr. Morden]

From last year:

How the hell is Rubio consistently ranking so high? I mean c'mon this is money we're talking about.

Even betting on Palin in December of 2010 makes more sense then this.

[Mr. Morden]

Paul now tied with Romney for 10th place on the GOP nomination.

Democrats
Clinton 68.5
Biden 19.6
Sanders 13.8

Republicans
Bush 30.5
Rubio 27.3
Trump 13.8
Fiorina 8.4
Carson 6.8
Christie 4.8
Cruz 4.3
Kasich 4.0
Huckabee 3.4
Paul 1.3
Romney 1.3

Four years ago at about this time on Intrade (Romney surged past 50 after Christie confirmed that he wouldn't run):

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=93015.msg3042992#msg3042992

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Eight years ago at about this time on Intrade:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=50282.msg1308138#msg1308138

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[Mr. Morden]

Bush has just dropped to 30.0, so we're at:

Bush 30.0
Rubio 27.3

[Mr. Morden]

Democrats
Clinton 69.0
Biden 19.6
Sanders 12.5

Republicans
Bush 29.2
Rubio 28.0
Trump 13.1
Fiorina 8.1
Carson 7.5
Christie 5.3
Cruz 4.3
Kasich 3.8
Huckabee 3.3
Paul 1.5

Four years ago today on Intrade:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=93015.msg3045635#msg3045635

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Eight years ago at about this time on Intrade:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=50282.msg1310811#msg1310811

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[Mr. Morden]

The Bush-Rubio gap narrows ever so slightly…

Democrats
Clinton 68.0
Biden 20.0
Sanders 12.5

Republicans
Bush 29.2
Rubio 28.4
Trump 12.8
Carson 8.1
Fiorina 8.1
Christie 5.3
Cruz 4.3
Huckabee 3.3
Kasich 3.3
Romney 1.2

Four years ago at about this time on Intrade:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=93015.msg3046911#msg3046911

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Eight years ago at about this time on Intrade:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=50282.msg1312316#msg1312316

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[Mr. Morden]

Also, here’s a National Enquirer flashback from that thread from eight years ago:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=50282.msg1313631#msg1313631

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[Mr. Morden]

Who comes up with these numbers?

People betting $ on the eventual nominee.

[Mr. Morden]

Democrats
Clinton 68.9
Biden 20.4
Sanders 14.1

Republicans
Bush 28.8
Rubio 27.7
Trump 14.1
Carson 7.5
Fiorina 7.5
Christie 4.8
Cruz 4.5
Huckabee 3.3
Kasich 2.9
Romney 1.2

Four years ago today on Intrade:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=93015.msg3051208#msg3051208

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Eight years ago at about this time on Intrade:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=50282.msg1313474#msg1313474

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[Mr. Morden]

Just before the Democratic debate, we have Sanders rising and Biden dropping.  Will Sanders pass Biden after the debate, or will he drop like a rock?  And what about Chafee/O’Malley/Webb?  Their share prices are cheap.  If you want to buy up a bunch of shares before tomorrow night, now’s your chance.

Democrats
Clinton 69.4
Biden 18.0
Sanders 16.8
Warren 1.1
Gore 1.0
Webb 0.7
O’Malley 0.6
Chafee 0.3

Republicans
Bush 28.4
Rubio 27.3
Trump 14.1
Fiorina 7.5
Carson 7.2
Christie 5.3
Cruz 4.5
Kasich 4.3
Huckabee 3.3
Romney 1.2

Four years ago today on Intrade:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=93015.msg3054356#msg3054356

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Eight years ago at about this time on Intrade:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=50282.msg1314745#msg1314745

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[Mr. Morden]

This isn't "polling".  It's people placing bets on who the nominee will be.

IIRC, it's perfectly reasonable that Warren to win the Dem. nomination is priced higher than Chafee to win the Dem. nomination.  I mean, one could imagine a Clinton meltdown scenario that culminates in a successful "draft Warren" effort.  It's unlikely, but not completely impossible.

Chafee winning the nomination seems a lot more farfetched than that.