latest Betfair odds

[Mr. Morden]

And a few hours later, the Bush crash has gotten so bad that he’s now only tied for third with Carson:

Up: Christie
Down: Bush

Rubio 38.5
Trump 18.3
Bush 11.4
Carson 11.4
Cruz 7.8
Christie 5.3
Fiorina 4.0
Huckabee 3.1
Kasich 2.9
Romney 1.3

[Mr. Morden]

Bush and Carson both drop.  Bush again alone in 3rd place, but it’s close.

Democrats
Clinton 87.7
Sanders 13.4

Republicans
Rubio 38.0
Trump 18.0
Bush 10.0
Carson 9.5
Cruz 7.8
Christie 5.3
Fiorina 3.6
Huckabee 2.9
Kasich 2.6
Romney 1.3

Four years ago at about this time on Intrade:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=93015.msg3072308#msg3072308

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Eight years ago at about this time on Intrade:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=50282.msg1327463#msg1327463

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[Mr. Morden]

Rubio hits 40.  Carson moves back up into a tie with Bush for 3rd place.

Up: Rubio, Cruz
Down: Trump, Christie

Democrats
Clinton 87.7
Sanders 13.4

Republicans
Rubio 40.0
Trump 16.8
Bush 10.0
Carson 10.0
Cruz 9.1
Christie 4.3
Huckabee 3.6
Fiorina 3.1
Kasich 2.3
Graham 1.1

Winning Individual
Clinton 56.8
Rubio 18.0
Sanders 8.4
Trump 6.8
Bush 5.0

[Mr. Morden]

Bush has a slight rebound, and Cruz passes Carson for 4th place.

Up: Bush, Christie
Down: Rubio

Democrats
Clinton 88.5
Sanders 12.5

Republicans
Rubio 38.0
Trump 17.4
Bush 11.1
Cruz 9.5
Carson 9.1
Christie 5.3
Huckabee 3.6
Fiorina 2.9
Kasich 2.4
Graham 1.1

Four years ago at about this time on Intrade:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=93015.msg3074207#msg3074207

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Eight years ago at about this time on Intrade:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=50282.msg1328829#msg1328829

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[Mr. Morden]

Hillary + Sanders is 101, is there a reason why you can't just sell both of them and be guaranteed a 1% profit?

I think there's both an issue of liquidity and an issue of the time horizon on which you'd see that profit.  Even if you can guarantee a 1% profit, the bets don't pay out until the Democratic National Convention makes the nomination official, and that's next July.  In the meantime, you could get 1% on your money just from putting it in a savings account, so why bother doing it this way?

I think this is related to why the longshot candidates are often overvalued.  Suppose you have a longshot candidate valued at 2% chance of winning the nomination.  Some people might disagree, and think he should really only be at 1%.  But are they really going to bother shorting him, just so they can make a 1% profit months down the line?  On the other hand, you could have someone who thinks 2% is too low, and he should really be at 3%.  That person has a strong incentive to buy up a bunch of shares, since even a small increase in the price can yield a big return.  So there's clearly an asymmetry there for events valued as being very far away from 50/50.

[Mr. Morden]

Carson surges into third place…

Up: Trump, Carson
Down: Huckabee

Rubio 37.7
Trump 19.0
Carson 10.9
Bush 10.5
Cruz 10.0
Christie 5.3
Fiorina 2.9
Huckabee 2.1
Kasich 2.1
Paul 0.9

Four years ago today on Intrade:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=93015.msg3075222#msg3075222

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[Mr. Morden]

Question : is Betfair a gold standard or something ? Are other markets telling a different story ? I just found this market aggregator, which seems to be telling a somewhat close story, just not identical. Do y'all know about it and is it a good indicator or should we stick with just Betfair ?

I just post Betfair prices because, as far as I can tell, it uses a similar mechanism to the old Intrade (in that prices are set by peer-to-peer transactions rather than bookies), and there isn't a $ limit on it like there is on Predict It.  But if anyone wants to post #s from other betting sites in this thread, feel free to do so.

[Mr. Morden]

Bush drops to fifth place.

Democrats
Clinton 89.3
Sanders 11.9

Republicans
Rubio 37.7
Trump 17.4
Carson 10.5
Cruz 10.0
Bush 9.5
Christie 5.5
Huckabee 2.8
Fiorina 2.1
Kasich 2.1
Paul 0.9
Jindal 0.8

Four years ago today on Intrade:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=93015.msg3077469#msg3077469

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Eight years ago at about this time on Intrade:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=50282.msg1332071#msg1332071

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[Mr. Morden]

Cruz in third place now as Carson tumbles to 5th.  Bush rebounds to double digits.  Christie and Huckabee debate woes hit their share prices.

Up: Bush
Down: Carson, Christie, Huckabee

Democrats
Clinton 89.3
Sanders 11.6

Republicans
Rubio 38.5
Trump 17.4
Cruz 10.7
Bush 10.5
Carson 8.8
Christie 4.2
Fiorina 1.9
Huckabee 1.8
Kasich 1.8
Paul 0.9
Jindal 0.8
Romney 0.7
Graham 0.5
Ryan 0.4

Four years ago at about this time on Intrade:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=93015.msg3077922#msg3077922

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[Mr. Morden]

Carson getting hit hard, and Cruz is the main beneficiary.  Rubio creeping up on 40.

Up: Cruz
Down: Carson

Rubio 39.4
Trump 18.0
Cruz 12.8
Bush 10.5
Carson 7.0
Christie 4.2
Kasich 2.4
Fiorina 1.9
Huckabee 1.8
Paul 0.9
Romney 0.7

[Mr. Morden]

Clinton hits 90…

Up: Trump
Down: Cruz

Democrats
Clinton 90.1
Sanders 11.4

Republicans
Rubio 38.8
Trump 19.3
Cruz 11.6
Bush 10.0
Carson 6.4
Christie 3.7
Kasich 2.6
Fiorina 1.9
Huckabee 1.5
Jindal 1.2
Paul 0.9
Romney 0.7
Graham 0.5
Santorum 0.4

Four years ago today on Intrade:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=93015.msg3081873#msg3081873

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Eight years ago at about this time on Intrade:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=50282.msg1334415#msg1334415

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[Mr. Morden]

Final pre-debate update: For Rubio, this is 40.  His share price is almost the same as his age.

Democrats
Clinton 90.1
Sanders 10.7

Republicans
Rubio 41.0
Trump 19.6
Cruz 11.1
Bush 10.7
Carson 7.0
Christie 3.7
Kasich 2.8
Fiorina 1.9
Huckabee 1.5
Jindal 1.2

Four years ago today on Intrade:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=93015.msg3083667#msg3083667

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Eight years ago at about this time on Intrade:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=50282.msg1336470#msg1336470

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[Mr. Morden]

Clinton hits 90…

D:

She's only 82 on PredictIt, and that's despite the fact that the numbers add to well over 100%. Bernie has 20.

PredictIt has strict limits on how much you can invest though, doesn't it?  That's part of why the #s can be a bit wonky, adding up to so much more than 100.  There isn't that much money at stake.

All of the bookies that allow unlimited betting (like Betfair) have Clinton somewhere between 88% and 93%.

[Mr. Morden]

Post-debate update:

Up: Cruz, Christie
Down: Sanders, Trump

Democrats
Clinton 90.1
Sanders 9.1

Republicans
Rubio 41.3
Trump 17.7
Cruz 12.5
Bush 10.5
Carson 7.5
Christie 4.8
Kasich 3.3
Fiorina 1.9
Huckabee 1.2
Jindal 1.2

Four years ago today on Intrade:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=93015.msg3086845#msg3086845

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Eight years ago at about this point on Intrade:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=50282.msg1337606#msg1337606

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[Mr. Morden]

Final pre-Dem. debate update: Nothing much happening on the Dem. side.  On the Republican side, Romney’s on the upswing, despite not running.  He’s now in 8th place to win the GOP nomination.  And Fiorina’s taken a serious beating, now down to 1.0.

Democrats
Clinton 90.1
Sanders 9.5
O’Malley 1.5

Republicans
Rubio 42.6
Trump 17.7
Cruz 12.8
Bush 11.1
Carson 7.2
Christie 4.0
Kasich 2.6
Romney 2.1
Huckabee 1.1
Fiorina 1.0
Paul 1.0

Four years ago at about this time on Intrade:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=93015.msg3089337#msg3089337

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Eight years ago today on Intrade:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=50282.msg1339126#msg1339126

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[Mr. Morden]

Kasich is crashing.  Now behind Romney, who’s managed to work his way up to 7th place.

Up: Rubio, Cruz
Down: Kasich

Democrats
Clinton 90.1
Sanders 9.5
O’Malley 1.2

Republicans
Rubio 44.1
Trump 18.3
Cruz 13.8
Bush 10.5
Carson 6.4
Christie 3.7
Romney 1.8
Kasich 1.3
Huckabee 1.1
Paul 1.0

Winning Individual
Clinton 54.9
Rubio 18.6
Trump 8.4
Sanders 6.0
Cruz 4.5
Bush 3.8
Carson 2.6

[Mr. Morden]

Democrats
Clinton 90.1
Sanders 9.5

Republicans
Rubio 43.3
Trump 18.6
Cruz 13.1
Bush 10.5
Carson 7.0
Christie 3.7
Kasich 1.9
Romney 1.6
Huckabee 1.1
Paul 1.0

Four years ago at about this time on Intrade:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=93015.msg3093231#msg3093231

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Eight years ago today on Intrade:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=50282.msg1341066#msg1341066

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[Mr. Morden]

Trump now above 20 to win the nomination.  The Romney bubble has deflated, as Mitt’s back below 1.0.  Meanwhile, Cruz is now narrowly ahead of Sanders in 4th place on winning individual.

Up: Trump
Down: Rubio

Democrats
Clinton 90.1
Sanders 9.1

Republicans
Rubio 41.8
Trump 20.4
Cruz 13.8
Bush 10.7
Carson 6.5
Christie 4.2
Kasich 1.5
Paul 1.0
Romney 0.9
Santorum 0.9

Winning Individual
Clinton 54.9
Rubio 18.6
Trump 8.8
Cruz 5.4
Sanders 5.3
Bush 4.2
Carson 2.5

[Mr. Morden]

Note that Santorum is at 0.9.  Whereas four years ago at this time, he was only at 0.8 (and went on to win several primaries). 

Up: Rubio, Trump
Down: Bush

Democrats
Clinton 90.9
Sanders 8.8

Republicans
Rubio 44.4
Trump 22.6
Cruz 13.1
Bush 9.5
Carson 6.2
Christie 3.4
Huckabee 1.1
Kasich 1.0
Santorum 0.9
Romney 0.8

Four years ago at about this time on Intrade:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=93015.msg3094010#msg3094010

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Eight years ago at about this time on Intrade:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=50282.msg1343077#msg1343077

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[Mr. Morden]

Carson’s really crashed big time.  He was above 10 as recently as Nov. 5.  Now below 5.  Will Christie end up passing him?

Kasich’s also been bid all the way down to 0.4.  OK, I get that he was overvalued before and is now a serious longshot, but 0.4?  I don’t think that’ll last.

Up: Cruz
Down: Sanders, Carson

Democrats
Clinton 90.9
Sanders 7.2
O’Malley 1.0
Gore 0.8

Republicans
Rubio 44.1
Trump 22.6
Cruz 14.1
Bush 9.5
Carson 4.8
Christie 3.8
Huckabee 1.1
Romney 0.8
Paul 0.5
Fiorina 0.4
Kasich 0.4

Four years ago today on Intrade:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=93015.msg3097110#msg3097110

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Eight years ago at about this time on Intrade:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=50282.msg1345830#msg1345830

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[Mr. Morden]

How was Gore so high at this point in 08?  The democratic party had a very strong slate, there was no need for a savior.

To be honest, I think much of it was that there'd been so much trading on him in 2005 and 2006 that there was just an enormous # of shares for and against him that people were holding on to by late 2007, and so people were dumping them by that point, so they could get their money back without having to wait until August 2008, when all the shares would cash out.  Pretty sure that's also why Condoleeza Rice was still being traded at that point.

[Mr. Morden]

How was Gore so high at this point in 08?  The democratic party had a very strong slate, there was no need for a savior.

To be honest, I think much of it was that there'd been so much trading on him in 2005 and 2006 that there was just an enormous # of shares for and against him that people were holding on to by late 2007, and so people were dumping them by that point, so they could get their money back without having to wait until August 2008, when all the shares would cash out.  Pretty sure that's also why Condoleeza Rice was still being traded at that point.

Yeah but that doesn't explain why he was at 4.6, does it?

Well, look at it this way.  In 2006, when Gore running is still a decent possibility, Trader A buys a share of Gore to win the Dem. nomination at a price of 15.0 (that was his price in August 2006: https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=40420.msg966748#msg966748 ).  Because Intrade works peer-to-peer, that means that Trader B is “shorting” Gore at the same price—equivalent to “buying” “Gore to NOT win the nomination” at 85.0.

These two folks hold onto their shares for a year, by which point it’s clear that Gore is not running, and Trader B will be the one to cash in on being right.  However, Trader B doesn’t want to wait around another year to get his money, so he offers to “sell back” his share to Trader A at 5.0 / 95.0.  Thus, Trader A, while having been wrong, still gets a third of his $ back, and Trader B gets to make ~10%+ profit.  He could have waited another year, and gotten the additional ~5% profit, but he didn’t want to wait that long.  He could be using that $ for other things in the meantime.

Since there were so many shares on Gore traded in 2005/2006, it took forever for this kind of thing to unwind.  If the market was more efficient, it wouldn’t have taken that long, but it isn’t, so it did.

[Mr. Morden]

Carson continues to plummet.  Christie passes him for 5th place.

Democrats
Clinton 90.1
Sanders 8.1

Republicans
Rubio 44.1
Trump 21.7
Cruz 14.5
Bush 10.0
Christie 4.3
Carson 3.7
Huckabee 1.1
Romney 0.9
Kasich 0.7
Fiorina 0.4

Four years ago today on Intrade:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=93015.msg3098644#msg3098644

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[Mr. Morden]

Cruz has big gains, taking it largely out of Rubio.

Up: Cruz
Down: Rubio

Democrats
Clinton 90.1
Sanders 7.5
Biden 1.2
O’Malley 1.0

Republicans
Rubio 41.8
Trump 21.7
Cruz 17.4
Bush 10.5
Christie 4.2
Carson 3.6
Huckabee 1.1
Romney 1.0
Fiorina 0.7
Kasich 0.6

Four years ago at about this time on Intrade:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=93015.msg3101482#msg3101482

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Eight years ago today on Intrade:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=50282.msg1347291#msg1347291

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[Mr. Morden]

The early Cruz-mania that followed that Quinnipiac poll eases a bit…

Up: Bush
Down: Cruz

Democrats
Clinton 90.1
Sanders 7.2
Biden 1.2
O’Malley 1.1

Republicans
Rubio 41.0
Trump 22.6
Cruz 15.4
Bush 12.8
Christie 4.3
Carson 4.0
Romney 1.4
Fiorina 1.1
Huckabee 1.1
Kasich 0.9

Four years ago today on Intrade:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=93015.msg3103488#msg3103488

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Eight years ago today on Intrade:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=50282.msg1349546#msg1349546

You must be logged in to read this quote.