IA-Selzer: Walker leads

[Mr. Morden]

Here's the full release:

http://images.businessweek.com/cms/2015-01-31/sat-93763-.pdf

The numbers given are a bit different from what you say in your post.  Though maybe you're trying to reallocate support from Romney?  I don't see an explicit "not Romney" scenario being tested here.

Dems

Clinton 56%
Warren 16%
Biden 9%
Sanders 5%
Webb 3%
O'Malley 1%

GOP

Walker 15%
Paul 14%
Romney 13%
Huckabee 10%
Carson 9%
Bush 8%
Cruz 5%
Christie 4%
Santorum 4%
Rubio 3%
Jindal 2%
Fiorina 1%
Kasich 1%
Trump 1%
Pence 0%

[Mr. Morden]

fav/unfav among Dem. voters:

Obama 86/13% for +73%
Clinton 84/15% for +69%
Biden 78/20% for +58%
Warren 58/11% for +47%
Sanders 37/12% for +25%
Webb 21/11% for +10%
O'Malley 13/9% for +4%

fav/unfav among GOP voters:

Walker 60/12% for +48%
Paul 64/25% for +39%
Huckabee 66/28% for +38%
Perry 64/26% for +38%
Carson 50/12% for +38%
Cruz 58/21% for +37%
Rubio 57/20% for +37%
Santorum 57/30% for +27%
Jindal 39/20% for +19%
Romney 57/40% for +17%
Kasich 22/14% for +8%
Bush 46/43% for +3%
Pence 13/14% for -1%
Fiorina 15/19% for -4%
Christie 36/54% for -18%
Trump 26/68% for -42%

Biggest movers on the GOP side since their October poll: Walker gains 11 points to his favorable number and Bush gains 15 points to his unfavorable number.

[Mr. Morden]

I wonder if the Iowa winner will break 20%.

Almost certainly yes.  We're not going to have more than 10 candidates a year from now, and once caucus time approaches, there'll be more consolidation around candidates expected to actually perform well.  (Maybe calling it "tactical voting" would be too strong, but at the very least we'll have a few candidates consistently topping the polls, and those candidates will get more media attention and strip away some of the soft support from the also-rans.)

[Mr. Morden]

Yes, yes. It begins.

Walker wins Iowa, Christie or Paul wins New Hampshire and eliminates the other. Then comes the battle for SC.

What does Nevada have to do to get some respect? 

[Mr. Morden]

OK, here's the full list once you reallocate support from Romney:



Also of interest from the writeup about Walker:

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[Mr. Morden]

Not directly related to this poll, but PPP also finds Walker strong in North Carolina (in a poll that they haven't released yet):

https://twitter.com/ppppolls/status/562350407775973376

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