For academic purposes, IF that ended up being the chamber I think the ALP becomes favourite. Largely because the only natural ally of 'others' that the Libs have is Katter and that only gets you to 73. The challenge becomes who can get to 76 OR show the GG they have the ability to guarantee supply. NXT has said his key criteria is who can best deliver stable government - that includes the Senate. So far, you'd say that the ALP/GRN bloc is stronger in the Senate than the LNPs right now.
So
ALP - 72
GRN - 1
Wilkie - 1
NXT - 2
With McGowan as Speaker? - equals 76+speaker vs 73 (LNP+Katter).
The reality is, the LNP needs to be at 74-75 to be able to be sure they can get over the line, the ALP can be as low as 71.
Wouldn't it be highly unlikely for Katter to go with Labor over the Coalition? In which case, 74 for the Coalition for them should be enough, since adding Katter gets you 75, and then wouldn't one of the other Indies most likely join them as well, to avoid a 75-75 tie? I mean, are both NXT and McGowan really going to *not* support the Coalition+Katter if Coalition+Katter already have exactly 50% of the seats, and thus have blocked out any possibility for Labor to command a majority? Or are we really going to be stuck with an electoral tie, and a complete deadlock on who can form a government?
