KY caucus *will* go forward, as long as Rand Paul shows them the $

[Mr. Morden]

The Kentucky GOP agreed earlier this year to ditch the state's state-funded primary, and instead determine the state's delegate allocation based on the results of a party-funded caucus.  However, they have yet to finalize the details of the caucus, including how to pay for it.

Well, it's now looking like it might all fall apart because the party doesn't want to pay for it (they were apparently counting on Paul to be more pro-active in raising the $ for it himself).  If this happens, then they'll just go back to using the primary, and Paul will have to decide by Jan. 26 of next year which race he's going to be on the primary ballot for:

http://www.politico.com/story/2015/08/rand-paul-faces-emerging-doubts-kentucky-121243.html?hp=t2_r

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Some are also worried that if Paul runs for both offices at once, he'll end up losing the Senate race:

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Aug. 22 UPDATE: It's happening, as long as Paul gives them the $:

http://frontloading.blogspot.com.au/2015/08/kentucky-republicans-shift-to-march-5.html

[Mr. Morden]

Paul sends a letter to the Republican Party of Kentucky, promising to fully pay for the caucus himself:

http://images.politico.com/global/2015/08/17/201508170948.pdf

[Mr. Morden]

Paul says he's already transferred the $, but the Kentucky GOP says they haven't received it:

http://www.kentucky.com/2015/08/18/3994360/despite-telling-republicans-otherwise.html

Decision time on whether to go ahead with the caucus is coming up this weekend.

[Mr. Morden]

Saturday’s meeting to decide on whether to go ahead with the caucuses will begin at 10am:

http://www.kentucky.com/2015/08/20/3997626_rand-paul-asks-supporters-to-rally.html?rh=1

Unclear what time they’ll announce the decision.  As the story notes, this is essentially a vote of confidence on Paul’s campaign.  Also:

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[Mr. Morden]

http://www.msnbc.com/rachel-maddow/watch/hard-choice-could-make-paul-first-dropout-510697027672

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I decided to merge this with the existing Kentucky caucus thread.  Let's at least wait a couple of hours for the Kentucky GOP to announce what they're going to do, before adding new threads about Paul dropping out.

Even if the Kentucky GOP decides against him, I don't think Paul is going to give up as early as this weekend.  That seems like it would be a big overreaction.  He's got until January to decide which race to run for, and I'm sure he's going to try floating some gimmick solutions as trial balloons before that, like leaving his name off of the Kentucky presidential primary ballot and running in the other 49 states.  That will probably seem like too much of a gimmick to people for that to fly, but that kind of thing will be floated.  Paul will talk about how the KY law is unconstitutional or something, in order to stretch out his decision, as he keeps his options open.

[Mr. Morden]

Should be noted that a majority won't be enough for Paul.

The caucuses won't happen unless at least 2/3rds of those in today's meeting vote to hold them.

[Mr. Morden]

They've decided to approve the caucuses (vote was 111-36), but it's contingent on Paul transferring $250,000 to the party by September 18.  If that doesn't happen, then the caucuses are cancelled and they'll go back to the primary:

http://frontloading.blogspot.com.au/2015/08/kentucky-republicans-shift-to-march-5.html

The caucuses will be on March 5, the Saturday after Super Tuesday.

[Mr. Morden]

*bump*

The deadline for Paul to put up the $250,000 for this is a week from today.  I haven't seen any reporting on whether he's already done so or not.  If he doesn't, then this all collapses, and Paul is forced to choose between the presidential and Senate race.

The deadline is actually two days after next week's debate.  Maybe Paul is actually waiting to see if he has a decent debate performance, and if he doesn't, then he pulls the plug on the presidential race?

I mean, the way things are going, if the subsequent debate invitations are based on polling, it's not clear that Paul will continue to qualify for future debates anyway.  Next week may be his last shot.