By the year 2100, Which Country Will be the World's Number 1 Superpower? (user search)
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  By the year 2100, Which Country Will be the World's Number 1 Superpower? (search mode)
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Poll
Question: Which country do you think will be (or remain) the world's number 1 superpower by the end of this century?
#1
United States
 
#2
China
 
#3
India
 
#4
European Union
 
#5
other (please elaborate)
 
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Partisan results

Total Voters: 68

Author Topic: By the year 2100, Which Country Will be the World's Number 1 Superpower?  (Read 2909 times)
Mr. Morden
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 44,066
United States


« on: January 19, 2016, 10:54:07 PM »

We're going to be the world's leading superpower for a lot longer than anyone thinks.  I don't think China any longer has a chance of catching up to the United States as a world superpower, since it appears to be turning into a giant version of 1990s-era Japan.  Once you slip into that trap, it is awfully difficult to get out of it, especially given adverse demographics compounded by China's self-inflicted one-child policy.

But unlike Japan, China has a substantially larger population and substantially smaller GDP per capita than the US.  China's so far behind the US in GDP per capita, that even in a pessimistic scenario, it still grows faster than the US, doesn't it?  So it keeps closing the gap on the US, it's just that it'll take a lot longer to reach parity than previously thought possible.
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