Democratic MI/MS election results thread (first results @8pm ET)

[Mr. Morden]

At 5pm, the networks will be given access to the early exit poll numbers.  So some time between about 5:10 and 5:30pm or so, we’ll start getting news reports from them about things like what percentage of the voters are Independents, what the top issues on voters’ minds are, etc.  But they’ll withhold the topline numbers (who is winning the exit poll) until all the polls have closed in a given state.

Overview of all results: http://www.politico.com/2016-election/results/map/president

Mississippi: polls close at 8pm ET
CNN: http://edition.cnn.com/election/primaries/states/ms/Dem
NYT: http://www.nytimes.com/elections/2016/primaries/mississippi

Michigan: polls close at 8pm ET in most of the state, but at 9pm ET in some of it
CNN: http://edition.cnn.com/election/primaries/states/mi/Dem
NYT: http://www.nytimes.com/elections/2016/primaries/michigan

[Mr. Morden]

From CNN TV:

MS
white 34%
black 61%

MI
white 69%
black 22%

[Mr. Morden]

[Mr. Morden]

[Mr. Morden]

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/live-democrats-exit-poll-analysis/story?id=37493541

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[Mr. Morden]

Do exit polls reflect early voting at all?

Negative, ghost rider.

Actually, they do in the general election, at least for certain states where the early vote is large:

http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/10/29/early-voting-and-exit-polls/?_r=0

They do a telephone poll just before the election, and ask people if they've early voted, to try to capture the early vote portion in the exit poll.  I would assume they do that in the primaries too, but I don't know.

[Mr. Morden]

[Mr. Morden]

It's annoying we're going to have to wait another full hour just because 4 HP counties in Michigan have their polls close at 9.

No results? Won't some trickle in?

Results will come in from precincts where the polls have already closed, but the TV networks won't release the topline exit poll # or call the state until all polls have closed.

[Mr. Morden]

Exit poll toplines for MS:

http://edition.cnn.com/election/primaries/states/ms/Dem

Clinton 78%
Sanders 21%

[Mr. Morden]

Exit poll topline:

http://edition.cnn.com/election/primaries/states/mi/Dem

Sanders 52%
Clinton 46%

[Mr. Morden]

Michigan exit poll:

http://edition.cnn.com/election/primaries/polls/mi/Dem

whites:
Sanders 59%
Clinton 39%

blacks:
Clinton 64%
Sanders 32%

[Mr. Morden]

Michigan exit poll:

http://edition.cnn.com/election/primaries/polls/mi/Dem

urban areas: Clinton +10
suburban areas: Sanders +8
rural areas: Sanders +14

Wayne: Clinton +12
Oakland/Macomb: Clinton +8
Southeast: Sanders +17
Southwest: Sanders +25
N. Central / U.P.: Sanders +20

[Mr. Morden]

Harry Enten from 538:

http://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/michigan-mississippi-idaho-hawaii-primaries-presidential-election-2016/?#livepress-update-14633319

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