Republican Wisconsin Primary results thread (polls close at 9pm ET)

[Mr. Morden]

Polls in Wisconsin will be open from 7am to 8pm local time, which is 8am to 9pm ET.

At 5pm, the networks will be given access to the early exit poll numbers.  So some time between about 5:10 and 5:30pm or so, we’ll start getting news reports from them about things like what percentage of the voters are Independents, what the top issues on voters’ minds are, etc.  But they’ll withhold the topline numbers (who is winning the exit poll) until all the polls have closed in the state.

CNN: http://edition.cnn.com/election/primaries/states/wi/Rep
NYT: http://www.nytimes.com/elections/2016/primaries/wisconsin

[Mr. Morden]

Forecast from weather.com...

Milwaukee:

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Madison:

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Eau Claire:

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Green Bay:

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[Mr. Morden]

Polls are now open in Wisconsin:

https://twitter.com/bgodar/status/717324181944287232

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[Mr. Morden]

More exits:

[Mr. Morden]

[Mr. Morden]

[Mr. Morden]

Seeing as Huffington Post isn't a customer of Edison Research where are they getting those numbers???

Presumably a leak from someone at one of the networks.  The people at the networks themselves never publicly release those #s, as they'd get in trouble.  Instead, they leak the info to people at, e.g., HuffPo.

[Mr. Morden]

On whether Republican voters would defect in the general election if their favored candidate isn't nominated:

[Mr. Morden]

Exit poll toplines (if my math is right):

http://edition.cnn.com/election/primaries/states/wi/Rep

Cruz 47.5%
Trump 36.5%
Kasich 14%

[Mr. Morden]

Exit poll:
college graduates: Cruz +18%
non-college graduates: Cruz +5%
under $50k income: Trump +3%
$50-100k income: Cruz +13%
over $50k income: Cruz +20%
Republicans: Cruz +19%
Independents: Trump +4%
conservative: Cruz +18%
moderate/liberal: Trump +12%
Evangelical: Cruz +17%
non-Evangelical: Cruz +5%
urban area: Cruz +13%
suburban area: Cruz +16%
rural area: Trump +1%

Who ran the most unfair campaign?
Trump 53%
Cruz 27%
Kasich 9%

[Mr. Morden]

Upshot's model projects that Cruz's margin of victory will narrow to 15 %age points in the end:

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/04/05/upshot/wisconsin-live-model-republican-primary-results.html

[Mr. Morden]

What is a website where you can view primary results by congressional district?

link

[Mr. Morden]

[Mr. Morden]

Upshot's model projects that Cruz's margin of victory will narrow to 15 %age points in the end:

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/04/05/upshot/wisconsin-live-model-republican-primary-results.html

There's like 600+ votes for Jeb Bush.  Who bothers going to the polls and grabbing a GOP ballot, just to mark Jeb Bush?

I always wonder about what fraction of the people who vote for dropout candidates legitimately don't know that their favored candidate has dropped out.

[Mr. Morden]

Gilmore has 140 votes so far.  #gilmentum

[Mr. Morden]

Cruz's strong showing in Wisconsin was enough to move him up from 27% to 28% in the national popular vote. 

http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/R

Trump 37%
Cruz 28%
Rubio 16%
Kasich 13%
Carson 3%
Bush 1%