Mr. Morden
Atlas Legend
Posts: 44,066
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« on: May 25, 2016, 08:01:45 AM » |
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Here’s the thing. So much of this depends on whether mainstream political pundits talk about Johnson at all. Third party candidates are capable of getting a few % of the vote if the media makes the voters aware of their existence. E.g., in 2000, the media talked about Nader enough for him to get ~3% of the vote. The fact that Nader was running had broken into the public consciousness enough that, for example, he was depicted on Saturday Night Live. People knew who he was and that he was running for president. In 2004, 2008, and 2012 though, there was 3rd party candidate who was known by the public. Hardly anyone knew who Johnson was in 2012.
The fact that a few polls have included Johnson as a 3rd choice suggest that *maybe* he has a shot at being talked about by the MSM to the extent that Nader was in 2000, but I’m still a bit skeptical. If a bunch of prominent #NeverTrump Republicans endorsed him, then that would be enough for the media to talk about him, but I don’t think they will. I guess we’ll have to wait and see how/if the media reacts to the Libertarian Convention, and Johnson (or whoever) getting nominated there. That could be the inflection point.
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