Who will win the GOP nomination in 2020?

[Mr. Morden]

Better question: Should Paul Ryan be considered the early favorite *if* he decided to run?  My guess is yes.  But I'm not sure that he's as likely to run as some of the others.  Cotton and Cruz, for example, have done more explicit signalling of interest in a '20 bid than Ryan has, for example.

[Mr. Morden]

Better question: Should Paul Ryan be considered the early favorite *if* he decided to run?  My guess is yes.  But I'm not sure that he's as likely to run as some of the others.  Cotton and Cruz, for example, have done more explicit signalling of interest in a '20 bid than Ryan has, for example.

He most likely would be. However, I believe he has already declined to run.

What do you mean "He has already declined to run"?  He didn't run in 2016, but he hasn't ruled out running in 2020 or beyond.

[Mr. Morden]

Better question: Should Paul Ryan be considered the early favorite *if* he decided to run?  My guess is yes.  But I'm not sure that he's as likely to run as some of the others.  Cotton and Cruz, for example, have done more explicit signalling of interest in a '20 bid than Ryan has, for example.

He most likely would be. However, I believe he has already declined to run.

What do you mean "He has already declined to run"?  He didn't run in 2016, but he hasn't ruled out running in 2020 or beyond.

http://www.wndu.com/content/news/Paul-Ryan-If-Trump-asks-Ill-step-down-as-co-chair-378671951.html

That's a non-denial denial.  Here's what Ryan said just last week:

http://www.businessinsider.co.id/paul-ryan-running-president-2020-2016-6/#.V23VUbRrWS0

You must be logged in to read this quote.

So he's explicitly asked if he's going to run for president one day, and he says "I don't know".  And then talks about not having run yet because of the "phase of life" he's in...a clear signal that we shouldn't take the fact that he hasn't run for prez before as a sign that he's not interested in doing so at some point in the future.

[Mr. Morden]

If the republican primaries were reasonable, I would say Ben Sasse. Whoever can be the most obnoxious will probably win, so I'll go with Rubio.

First time I may actually agree with a socialist on anything. But no Rubio finished he's never going to run for president again and if he does he has no chance of being the nominee. He probably wouldn't even be in the top 5 or 6 presidential candidates

To me, it seemed like, after his failed bid last year, Rubio immediately pivoted to running for president again.  If Clinton had won last year, then Rubio would be running in 2020.  But since he's unlikely to challenge an incumbent GOP president, he'll wait until 2024.

I think Rubio went into 2016 prepared for the possibility that he would lose the nomination, but live to fight another day, and would then run for president again in 2020 or 2024.  He's young enough that he'll probably run for president again at least one more time, if not two.