The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread

[Mr. Morden]

Quinnipiac poll of New York, conducted Dec. 13-19:

https://poll.qu.edu/new-york-state/release-detail?ReleaseID=2413

Trump:
favorable 31%
unfavorable 59%

By region...
NYC: -46
suburbs: -23
upstate: -14

[Mr. Morden]

Quinnipiac poll of New York, conducted Dec. 13-19:

https://poll.qu.edu/new-york-state/release-detail?ReleaseID=2413

Trump:
favorable 31%
unfavorable 59%

By region...
NYC: -46
suburbs: -23
upstate: -14

Interesting that Trump is underwater for Upstate NY by 14%.  Election night he won Upstate NY (I guess I define it as NY minus NYC minus LI minus Westchester and Rockland counties) by around 3% overall.

I mean, the national exit poll had both Clinton and Trump underwater by double digits in favorability, yet the vast majority of voters voted for one or the other of them.  So it's not strange to see Trump underwater on favorability in places that he won.  The exit poll had him way down in favorability in Texas of all places, yet he still won the state handily.

[Mr. Morden]

Economist/YouGov poll, conducted Dec. 24-27:

http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/zp26cswnj7/econToplines.pdf

Biden 48/34% for +14%
Obama 53/42% for +11%
Pence 39/36% for +3%
The Democratic Party 40/47% for -7%
Trump 41/50% for -9%
The Republican Party 35/51% for -16%
H. Clinton 38/55% for -17%

7% of Clinton voters have a favorable opinion of Trump.  8% of Trump voters have an unfavorable opinion of Trump.

Meanwhile, 7% of Trump voters have a favorable opinion of Clinton.  20% of Clinton voters have an unfavorable opinion of Clinton(!).

[Mr. Morden]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/x4pjrm6s7x/econTabReport.pdf

fav/unfav %:
Biden 49/34% for +15%
Obama 54/40% for +14%
Pence 39/38% for +1%
The Democratic Party 42/45% for -3%
Trump 41/51% for -10%
The Republican Party 36/51% for -15%
Clinton 39/55% for -16%

Trump fav/unfav by gender:
men: 47/45% for +2%
women: 37/56% for -19%

Trump fav/unfav by household income:
under $50k: 39/52% for -13%
$50-100k: 49/48% for +1%
over $100k: 35/60% for -25%

7% of Clinton voters have a favorable opinion of Trump.  9% of Trump voters have an unfavorable opinion of Trump.

Meanwhile, 6% of Trump voters have a favorable opinion of Clinton.  21% of Clinton voters have an unfavorable opinion of Clinton.

[Mr. Morden]

Morning Consult national poll, conducted Jan. 5-7:
http://www.politico.com/f/?id=00000159-8543-d978-af79-e57b62f70000
http://www.politico.com/f/?id=00000159-853b-d15a-afdf-dfbb19780001

Trump 48% favorable 46% unfavorable

Trump favorability margin by region:
Midwest: -3
Northeast: -4
South: +9
West: 0

Trump favorability margin by race:
whites: +13
blacks: -55
Hispanics: -11

Trump favorability margin by income:
under $50k: -4
$50-100k: +13
over $100k: +11

[Mr. Morden]

They were a bit off as well, but I was talking about the NC poll (and state polls in general).

I don't know the answer to this, but I'm curious: Were the RV state polls in 2016 more accurate than the LV state polls?  Because all the favorability polls in this thread are obviously RV polls.

I'm just wondering if the 2016 state polls were off in part because pollsters were assuming that the likely voters would look like the likely voters did in 2012.

[Mr. Morden]

Economist/YouGov poll, conducted Jan. 7-10:

http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/octxvxy91s/econTabReport.pdf

Biden 50/33% for +17%
Obama 52/44% for +8%
Pence 39/36% for +3%
Trump 44/51% for -7%
The Democratic Party 39/48% for -9%
The Republican Party 36/51% for -15%

Trump fav/unfav by household income:
under $50k: 40/51% for -11%
$50-100k: 51/46% for +5%
over $100k: 43/54% for -11%

6% of Clinton voters have a favorable opinion of Trump.  7% of Trump voters have an unfavorable opinion of Trump.

[Mr. Morden]

The CNN/ORC Poll was conducted by telephone January 12-15 among a random national sample of 1,000 adults. Results for the full sample have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus three percentage points; it is higher for subgroups




http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2017/images/01/16/trump.2.pdf

Those images don’t show up for me, so I’ll just post the Trump favorability plus crosstabs:

Trump favorability/unfavorability:
44/53% for -9%

men: +10
women: -27
non-whites: -47
white college grads: -15
white non-college grads: +22
age 18-34: -32
age 35-49: +2
age 50-64: -5
age 65+: +1
Midwest: -2
Northeast: -25
South: -8
West: 0
urban: -28
suburban: -17
rural: +36

[Mr. Morden]

Poll questions & results: https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/polling/washington-postabc-news-poll-january-1215/2017/01/16/5c82bb38-dc27-11e6-8902-610fe486791c_page.html?tid=a_inl

Trump favorability/unfavorability:
40/54% for -14%

men: -3
women: -25
whites: +6
non-whites: -52
Midwest: -19
Northeast: -23
South: -3
West: -22
urban: -43
suburban: -3
rural: +15

[Mr. Morden]

New Monmouth Poll (1/12-1/15)

Trump favorability rating: 34% Favorable, 46% Unfavorable

Ouch

https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/MonmouthPoll_US_011717/

men: -6
women: -16
whites: +5
non-whites: -45
income less than $50k: -10
income $50-100k: -14
income over $100k: -21

[Mr. Morden]

NBC/WSJ national poll, conducted Jan. 12-15:

https://www.scribd.com/document/336831474/17016-NBCWSJ-January-Poll-Final-5-PM-Release

fav/unfav %:
Biden 56/22% for +34%
Pence 35/32% for +3%
Republican Party 35/43% for -8%
Democratic Party 35/44% for -9%
Trump 38/48% for -10%

[Mr. Morden]

Economist/YouGov poll, conducted Jan. 14-17:

http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/fgqecf80as/econTabReport.pdf

Biden 55/30% for +25%
Obama 55/40% for +15%
Pence 40/37% for +3%
The Democratic Party 43/47% for -4%
Trump 40/54% for -14%
The Republican Party 36/53% for -17%

Trump fav/unfav by household income:
under $50k: 36/58% for -22%
$50-100k: 48/48% for +/-0
over $100k: 39/60% for -21%

6% of Clinton voters have a favorable opinion of Trump.  7% of Trump voters have an unfavorable opinion of Trump.

[Mr. Morden]

CBS/NYT national poll, conducted Jan. 13-16:

http://www.cbsnews.com/news/more-americans-disapprove-than-approve-trumps-handling-of-transition/

Trump: 32% favorable, 42% unfavorable

[Mr. Morden]

Rasmussen national poll:

link

Trump: 52% favorable, 48% unfavorable

[Mr. Morden]

Fox came out with their poll today, can't find a link yet, but Trump'a approval is only at 37%z

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2017/01/19/fox-news-poll-divided-yet-optimistic-country-awaits-trump.html

His approval of transition rating is lower than his favorability.

Hillary's also back ahead of Trump in net favorability.

fav/unfav %:
Obama 60/39% for +21%
Pence 45/37% for +8%
The Democratic Party 47/48% for -1%
Clinton 43/55% for -12%
The Republican Party 41/53% for -12%
Trump 42/55% for -13%

Trump fav/unfav among…
men: +/-0
women: -25
under $50k income: -28
over $50k income: -7
non-white: -55
white college degree: -21
white no college degree: +22

8% of Trump voters have an unfavorable opinion of him.
14% of Clinton voters have an unfavorable opinion of her.

[Mr. Morden]

PPP, California: first statewide approval poll. It's only of the Presidential transition, but that went badly according to California respondents.

But that's not his job approval as president.  The poll was taken before he took office, so he didn't have a job approval as president at that point, since he wasn't president.

[Mr. Morden]

PPP, California: first statewide approval poll. It's only of the Presidential transition, but that went badly according to California respondents.

But that's not his job approval as president.  The poll was taken before he took office, so he didn't have a job approval as president at that point, since he wasn't president.

True. But it is what he starts with.

It's what he has on a question that's different from "presidential job approval".  Job approval as president is not job approval in managing the transition.

[Mr. Morden]

Reuters/Ipsos also has a tracking poll on Trump's job approval:

https://polling.reuters.com/#!poll/CP3_2/type/smallest/dates/20170101-20170131/collapsed/true/spotlight/1

[Mr. Morden]

YouGov/Economist:

https://twitter.com/williamjordann/status/826847086356332545

Approve 43 (+2)
Disapprove 44 (+9!)
Undecided 14 (-10)

Strong Approve 25
Strong Disapprove 33

Trump down in every poll we've gotten this week, compared to last week.

Trump continues to do poorly among the rich by the standards of what we’re used to from Republicans:

income under $50k: +/-0
income $50-100k: +7
income over $100k: -25

Now, the over $100k group is the smallest sample, so MoE is big, and I don’t believe the gap is that huge, but most other polls also have $50-100k as Trump’s strongest group, with him doing comparatively poorly among those over $100k.

[Mr. Morden]

YouGov/Economist:

https://twitter.com/williamjordann/status/826847086356332545

Approve 43 (+2)
Disapprove 44 (+9!)
Undecided 14 (-10)

Strong Approve 25
Strong Disapprove 33

Trump down in every poll we've gotten this week, compared to last week.

Trump continues to do poorly among the rich by the standards of what we’re used to from Republicans:

income under $50k: +/-0
income $50-100k: +7
income over $100k: -25

Now, the over $100k group is the smallest sample, so MoE is big, and I don’t believe the gap is that huge, but most other polls also have $50-100k as Trump’s strongest group, with him doing comparatively poorly among those over $100k.

Btw, here's the full poll:

http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/qg8b1mgh4b/econToplines.pdf

bring back waterboarding:
favor 32%
oppose 40%

build a wall on the Mexico border
favor 40%
oppose 44%

stop government grants to cities that provide services to illegal immigrants
favor 48%
oppose 34%

build the Dakota Access pipeline
favor 36%
oppose 37%

move the US embassy in Israel to Jerusalem
favor 25%
oppose 26%

reduce the number of refugees the US accepts to 50,000
favor 47%
oppose 29%

stop admitting Syrian refugees entirely
favor 38%
oppose 36%

stop admitting all refugees to the US for four months
favor 40%
oppose 37%

90 day ban on people entering the US from Iraq, Syria, Iran, Libya, Somalia, Sudan, and Yemen
favor 48%
oppose 31%

[Mr. Morden]

Interesting ...

All recent polls seem to suggest that Democrats are on the losing side of the issue of Trump's travel ban.

This thing is highly popular with Republicans and Indies actually.

The issue most are having is with legal residents getting stopped/deported. Trump is on the right side of public opinion partially, however, it gets more complicated when you include green card holders.

He seems to have surrendered on green card holders:

http://www.politico.com/story/2017/02/white-house-green-card-holders-no-longer-covered-by-trump-executive-order-234505

But there are plenty of temporary legal residents (like students) who are still affected.  Not sure what is the best way to cover those people in a poll question like this.

[Mr. Morden]

CBS News Poll:

Approve 40%
Disapprove 48%

Travel Ban:

Approve 45%
Disapprove 51%

Temporary Ban on Refugees:

Approve 45%
Disapprove 51%

Source

Here's the question wording:

"As you may know, Donald Trump has issued an executive order that temporarily bans people from entering the U.S. who are from the countries of Iraq, Iran, Libya, Somalia, Sudan, Syria, and Yemen. Do you approve or disapprove of this action?"

And the other question:

" As you may know, Donald Trump’s executive order also temporarily bans any refugees, those forced to leave their country due to violence or persecution, from entering the United States. Do you approve or disapprove of temporarily banning refugees from entering the U.S.?"

As you said, 45% approve and 51% disapprove of both.

Poll conducted Feb. 1-2.

[Mr. Morden]

CNN/ORC national poll, conducted Jan. 31 - Feb. 2:

http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2017/images/02/03/rel2a.-.trump.pdf

Trump job approval:
44% approve
53% disapprove

[Mr. Morden]

CNN/ORC national poll, conducted Jan. 31 - Feb. 2:

http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2017/images/02/03/rel2a.-.trump.pdf

Trump job approval:
44% approve
53% disapprove

“As you may know, Donald Trump signed an executive order which prohibits travel to the U.S. for the next three months by citizens of seven majority-Muslim countries, and suspends the U.S. refugee program for four months while reducing the total number of refugees the U.S. will accept this year. Overall, do you favor or oppose this executive order?”

favor 47%
oppose 53%

Also, 29% not only favor the order, but say they would like to see it expanded.

“Do you think the executive order…?”
makes the US safer from terrorism 41%
makes the US less safe from terrorism 46%

“Do you think the executive order does more to…?”
protect American values by keeping out people who don’t support them 43%
harm American values by preventing those seeking asylum from entering the US 49%

“Do you favor or oppose allowing refugees from Syria to seek asylum in the United States?”
favor 54%
oppose 45%

Should the US build a wall along the entire Mexican border?
yes 38%
no 60%

Trump job approval by region…
Midwest: -8
Northeast: -25
South: +8
West: -20

Support for travel ban by region…
Midwest: -6
Northeast: -19
South: +6
West: -14

Support for the travel ban by education level…
college grad: -24
non-college grad: +/-0

[Mr. Morden]

Support for building a wall on the Mexican border now at the lowest level it's been since CNN first polled it in 2015.  Back then it was at 52%, and now at 38%.