Booker, Gillibrand, Castro, Cuomo - Who will be the Dem Jeb Bush in 2020?

[Mr. Morden]

Castro, Gillibrand, etc. aren’t going to get “decent early polling numbers” like Jeb Bush had, because few people even know who they are.  They’re starting from a low base of support because most people don’t know them.  Whereas Bush had decent early polling numbers by virtue of his last name.  That gave him a name recognition advantage over folks like Scott Walker, and that alone offered decent poll #s.  But that doesn’t work for someone like Gillibrand.  If she’s going to get decent polling numbers, she’ll have to do something on her own in order to get them, rather than inherent them from her family.

Similarly, Bush inherited a bunch of connections with political insiders and big $ donors because of his family name, not because of his own achievements.  I don’t think the same works for a Booker or a Gillibrand.  They’re not going to get widespread elite support unless they actually convince elites that they’re likely to win.  Which, again, is something they’d have to achieve on their own rather than inherit it from their family.

Cuomo’s in a slightly different category, in that he’s likely to be able to raise big $ for a campaign regardless of his poll numbers, and regardless of whether he convinces elites that he has much of a chance to win.  That’s simply because he’s the sitting governor of New York, and many rich people have extensive business interests in New York, and are looking for any way to gain favor with the governor.  That’s more because of his position as governor of NY than because of his last name, but of course you could say that he never would have been elected governor if not for his last name.