NH-ARG: Kasich leading Trump, Pence in GOP primary.

[Mr. Morden]

Even though ARG sucks, I hope this result is enticing enough that it prompts real pollsters to start conducting some 2020 polls of their own.

[Mr. Morden]

Even though ARG is terrible, I’ll post the Kasich vs. Trump crosstabs here for entertainment purposes:

Republicans: Kasich +9
Indies: Kasich +17
men: Trump +13
women: Kasich +36
age 18-49: Kasich +7
age 50+: Kasich +15
approve of Trump’s job performance: Trump +19
disapprove of Trump’s job performance: Kasich +36

That’s a heck of a gender gap.

In any case, if anyone does run in the 2020 primaries against Trump, I imagine the “drug-infested den” line will be making its way to New Hampshire campaign ads in about two years’ time.

[Mr. Morden]

Btw, I would be curious to see a hypothetical Kasich vs. Trump 1 on 1 poll from last year January or February, just before the primary.  I can't find one right now, though PPP did test Rubio vs. Trump in their January 2016 poll:

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_NH_10616.pdf

Rubio 52%
Trump 40%

They also had Cruz ahead of Trump in a 1-on-1 matchup.  But the overall poll with the whole field was:

Trump 29%
Rubio 15%
Christie 11%
Kasich 11%
Bush 10%
Cruz 10%

And Trump's favorability / unfavorability rating among GOP primary voters in the poll was 49% / 44%.

So even though Trump won the primary there, I'm not sure he's ever been super-popular among GOP primary voters in NH.  It's just that the other candidates split the non-Trump vote.

[Mr. Morden]

Trump destroyed everyone in the NH Primary.

He won a 35% plurality in a crowded field.  It's unclear how he would have done in a 1-on-1 match against Kasich, which is the scenario imagined in this poll.

That being said, that Pence result is pretty funny.

Pence doesn't have the benefit of being the incumbent president.  That's worth at least a few points of goodwill from the voters in your own party.  It's quite possible that if Trump resigned and Pence became prez, his standing in polls like this would improve markedly.

[Mr. Morden]

I mean can't the GOP come up with a candidate who didn't run in 2016 and got crushed by Trump in the process?

It's quite possible that such a candidate will run, but candidates who have already run before are going to have higher name recognition and thus will do better in ridiculously early polls like this.  ARG presumably picked Kasich for their poll because of name recognition, but that doesn't mean there aren't other candidates out there who might run.

[Mr. Morden]

The problem with finding a primary challenger who could beat Trump is that every high profile GOP politician who had a shot at the Presidency ran in 2016, and they all flamed out against Trump.

Is there anyone who could have ran in 2016 but didn't and could still run in 2020?

I don't think past performance really matters.  Trump's the incumbent GOP president, so he's not going to lose the nomination to anyone, barring some really politically apocalyptic scenario that involves conservative media like Limbaugh, Hannity, Fox News et al. turning against him.  And even in that case, a Trump that's wounded enough to get less than 50% of the GOP primary vote nationwide would presumably invite multiple challengers rather than one, and so Trump could still get a plurality victory like he did last time.