the South Carolina primary

[Mr. Morden]

I haven't really been following the jockeying among states to determine the 2008 presidential primary pecking order.  As I understand it, the calendar is still in flux.  States are still moving around their primary dates.  But one thing I still see crop up in the media occasionally is the conventional wisdom that South Carolina is an important early primary state.  This was definitely true before 2004, when it always came third after Iowa and NH.  But, as I'm sure you all recall, by 2004 six other states moved up their primary to the same day as SC, and SC had no special status any greater than the other six states that voted that day.

As far as I know, SC doesn't have the same sort of exemption in the DNC or RNC rules that IA and NH get, so I would assume that there will be other states voting on the same day as SC (for both the GOP and the Dems).  Or is that not the case?

[Mr. Morden]

I believe my home state's primary is pivotal.  I believe that the mixture of old style Southern Dems as well as our traditional Democratic voters will result in SC's selection of a highly electable Democratic candidate, such as John Edwards last year.  SC is a good gauge for how Democratic candidates would do w/ Blue Dog Democrats and moderately liberal Democrats.

But how does that make it "pivotal"?  "Pivotal" suggests that it'll have an outsized influence on who wins the nomination, not that it'll vote for the most electable candidate.  And with all due respect to SC, aren't there any number of Southern and Western states that have a similar proportion of moderate Dems?  Couldn't you make the same case for, say, Oklahoma, which voted on the same day as SC in 2004?