New Tradesports rankings

[Mr. Morden]

Yes, Giuliani has rebounded, as has Romney.  McCain's odds are actually now slightly closer to Romney's than Giuliani's.  Which is stunning, when compared to just a couple of weeks ago.

[Mr. Morden]

Yeah, it doesn't make any sense to wish for your candidate to remain the underdog as long as possible before finally breaking out at the last minute.  The bizarre circumstances of 2004 notwithstanding, the later in the game you're able to maintain your status as frontrunner, that harder it gets for anyone else to knock you off.  Better to knock off the frontrunner early if it can be done.  Another thing is that if Obama catches Clinton in the polls soon, it will greatly help his fundraising.  He can't afford to wait too long to catch fire if he wants to raise lots of $.

[Mr. Morden]

Fred Thompson has just been added to Intrade.  I'm very curious to see where his share price ends up.  Right now the bid is 2.0 and the ask is 10.0.

[Mr. Morden]

Thompson's now up to 3.5, which puts him in fourth place.  Gingrich, Hagel, and especially Huckabee are all tanking.  Huckabee's at his lowest level in months.

[Mr. Morden]

Huckabee has really been hit hard by the emergence of Fred Thompson.

[Mr. Morden]

Thompson is surging.  He's up to 6.3 now.  How long before his odds at winning the GOP nomination surpass Edwards's odds for the Dem. nomination?  Expect some big movement on Thompson after his appearance tomorrow morning on Fox News Sunday.  (The movement could be positive or negative, depending on what he says about the chances that he'll run for president.)  Then expect big movement on Hagel on Monday when he announces his plans for the future.

[Mr. Morden]

How long before his odds at winning the GOP nomination surpass Edwards's odds for the Dem. nomination?

We're not quite there yet.  But at the rate things are going, the answer to my question might turn out to be "a few hours".

[Mr. Morden]

Lots of activity today.  Obama and especially Giuliani keep surging.  (It might not be long before Giuliani's odds at the GOP nomination exceed Clinton's odds at the Dem. nomination.)  Meanwhile, Gore, Romney, and Hagel are cratering.  Maybe Thompson's odds won't surpass Edwards's, as I anticipated, but they could soon pass Gore's.

I'm still wondering though, if Thompson sits at 7.1 when he hasn't even made a decision on whether to run, where will his price be if he announces?  If he announced tomorrow, I think he'd easily pass Romney.

[Mr. Morden]

McCain has now dropped to 20.0....lowest since 2005.  Also, Edwards is ahead of Gore again.

[Mr. Morden]

Since, obviously, a presidential nominee can't choose himself (or herself) to be VP, but has to pick someone else, you can get the Intrade "odds that a candidate will be *either* the presidential or vice presidential nominee" simply by adding the presidential and vice presidential odds for that candidate.  Probability that each of the following will be on their party's ticket, either in the #1 spot or the #2 spot, as derived from Intrade prices:

Obama 54.4
Clinton 49.9
Richardson 24.5
Edwards 16.4
Gore 13.9
Clark 12.9
Warner 10.3

Giuliani 47.5
McCain 30.5
Romney 30.5
Pawlenty 17.6
Rice 14.0
Gingrich 12.0
Bush 10.4
Huckabee 10.3

[Mr. Morden]

Maybe some people got confused and thought that Tommy Thompson was the flavor of the week.

Either that, or they're counting on Tommy getting some publicity from the inevitable "two Thompsons in the race" news stories.  Or else they're counting on voter confusion.

[Mr. Morden]

Brownback and Hagel are now at their lowest points since early January.  Compared to a couple weeks ago, Huckabee isn't doing too well either, but he's at least regained some of the ground he lost immediately after the Fred Thompson buzz started.

[Mr. Morden]

I was watching Tucker Carlson's show earlier today on MSNBC.  They had a journalist on who was talking about the effort to draft Jeb Bush.  Maybe some people saw that segment, and decided to buy Jeb shares.

So which of the following do you expect to happen first (if they happen at all)?

- F. Thompson odds to win GOP nomination surpasses Edwards odds to win Dem. nomination

- Gore odds to win Dem. nomination surpasses Romney odds to win GOP nomination

- Romney odds to win GOP nomination surpasses McCain odds to win GOP nomination

- Gore odds to win the general election surpasses McCain odds to win the general election

[Mr. Morden]

So which of the following do you expect to happen first (if they happen at all)?

- F. Thompson odds to win GOP nomination surpasses Edwards odds to win Dem. nomination

- Gore odds to win Dem. nomination surpasses Romney odds to win GOP nomination

- Romney odds to win GOP nomination surpasses McCain odds to win GOP nomination

- Gore odds to win the general election surpasses McCain odds to win the general election

The first, followed by the second. The third won't happen and the fourth would only happen if Gore actually announces he's running (he won't).

You were right on the first.  Thompson odds to win GOP nomination have now reached a new high of 8.9, while Edwards odds to win Dem. nomination is down to 8.8.  Now we'll have to see if you're right that the next to happen will be Gore surpassing Romney.  Romney has been rebounding in the last week, so it might be a while before it happens...if it happens at all.

If I can step back for a second on this....wow.  Edwards has been regarded as one of the "big three" contenders for the Democratic nomination for months now.  And now, not only do the Intrade betters rate Gore as having a better shot at the nomination, but they also think that Fred Thompson, who first expressed interest in a run about two weeks ago, has a better shot at the GOP nomination than Edwards has at the Dem. nomination?

[Mr. Morden]

Well, the WaPo says that Edwards is holding a news conference tomorrow to discuss his wife's health.  But no indication that he's going to drop out:

link

[Mr. Morden]

Edwards has now plummetted to 4.5.  He's behind Richardson now.

[Mr. Morden]

Edwards has now rebounded to 7.5.  24 hours ago, he was at 8.8, so he's still down a little from where he was, but anyone who was buying Edwards shares a few hours ago would have made a killing.

[Mr. Morden]

If Gore were to announce tomorrow that he's running, how high do you think his share price would be the following day?  That is, does the market actually think that he'll probably run?  Or do they think that there's about a one in five or one in six chance that he's running, but that if he does run, he'd be the overwhelming favorite?

[Mr. Morden]

When do the 1st Quarter fundraising #s come out?  About a week or so into April?  That would mean that that's coming up in just about two weeks.  I would imagine that we'll see a lot of movement on Intrade based on how those numbers come out.

National Journal's current predictions are:

Clinton $35 million
Obama $23 million
Edwards $15 million
Biden $9 million
Dodd $8 million
Richardson $8 million

Romney $25 million
McCain $20 million
Giuliani $15 million
Brownback $6 million
Hunter $6 million
T. Thompson $6 million
Gilmore $5 million
Huckabee $5 million

So even though the differences could be small, whoever comes in 4th on the Dem. side could get a bit of a bump (assuming no surprises among the top 3).

And whoever comes in 4th on the GOP side would also likely get a bump.  If Romney really does end up out-fundraising everyone else on the GOP side, he'll get a bump too....maybe even enough to put him ahead of McCain on Intrade for a short time.

[Mr. Morden]

Look for Thompson to fly over Romney soon.

Maybe.  But the thing holding Thompson back is that there's doubt about whether he's actually going to run.  As long as there's that uncertainty, he can only go so high.

[Mr. Morden]

Maybe.  But the thing holding Thompson back is that there's doubt about whether he's actually going to run.  As long as there's that uncertainty, he can only go so high.

Gore's denials haven't stopped him...

But he's still only at 10.8.  I don't know.  Where do you think Gore would be on Intrade if, tomorrow, he announced that he was running?  And where would Thompson be on Intrade if, tomorrow, *he* announced he was running?

[Mr. Morden]

Thompson has now shot all the way up to 13.3, while Huckabee has plummetted to 0.2(!!).  If anyone ever had any interest in buying Huckabee shares, now would probably be a good time.

They should add Thompson to the "winning individual" section.  I'd be curious to see what kind of odds he would get for the general election.  (Also curious about what kind of odds he'd get if they added him to the VP section.)

[Mr. Morden]

Edwards is almost back up to where he was before the E. Edwards cancer story came out.  Before that, he was at 8.8.  Now, he's back up to 8.5.

[Mr. Morden]

Thompson has now jumped all the way up to 16.0.  If he keeps this up, he'll pass Romney in no time.

[Mr. Morden]

Update: And Thompson has now in fact reached 17.0 and surpassed Romney.  At this rate, how long before he surpasses McCain?

They've also added Thompson to the list of VP choices.  Currently the Ask is 20 and the Bid is 5.