InTrade Presidential odds

[Mr. Morden]

Top 10 in the two VP markets:

Dems:

Webb 24.9
Clinton 17.0
Bayh 10.0
Gephardt 10.0
Sebelius 9.1
McCaskill 8.5
Rendell 8.0
Hagel 7.5
Biden 6.3
Gore 6.0

GOP:

Romney 25.0
Pawlenty 16.0
Palin 15.0
Crist 11.4
Huckabee 11.3
Cantor 10.0
Thune 10.0
Portman 9.3
Jindal 8.0
Lieberman 5.5

[Mr. Morden]

Wow, the Dem VP market is a disaster. Of the candidates on that list, only Sebelius and Biden have any serious chance at being chosen. And the morons really piled on Gephardt after a Republican said Obama should pick him. At least the Republican list is more sensible.

Meh, I think Bayh and Webb have a reasonable chance of being chosen as well.  And on the GOP side, I think Romney, Palin, Crist, and Huckabee are way way less likely to be chosen than most people think.

[Mr. Morden]

Update on VP markets:

Webb 18.0
Clinton 17.0
Sebelius 9.1
McCaskill 8.7
Rendell 8.0
Gephardt 7.5
Bayh 7.0
Hagel 6.9
Biden 6.2

Romney 27.7
Pawlenty 14.0
Palin 12.4
Huckabee 11.0
Crist 8.1
Portman 8.0
Cantor 6.5
Lieberman 5.5
Fiorina 5.3
Graham 5.0

[Mr. Morden]

Crist's engagement has bumped him up into a tie for 3rd place in the GOP VP market:

Romney 27.7
Pawlenty 14.0
Crist 12.4
Palin 12.4

[Mr. Morden]

Big shakeup on the Dem VP odds, with Webb seemingly ruling himself out:

Clinton 15.5
Sebelius 9.3
Hagel 8.6
Rendell 8.0
Richardson 8.0
Biden 7.7
Bayh 7.5
McCaskill 6.5
Edwards 6.0
Kaine 5.4

[Mr. Morden]

Sanford finally breaks into the top tier on the GOP side:

Romney 27.0
Pawlenty 14.0
Crist 12.4
Palin 12.4
Huckabee 12.0
Sanford 10.0
Portman 8.0
Cantor 6.5
Lieberman 5.5
Fiorina 5.3

[Mr. Morden]

Bayh now up to 2nd place in the Dem. VP odds:

Clinton 15.3
Bayh 11.9
Sebelius 10.3
Hagel 10.0
Kaine 8.5
Biden 8.1
Richardson 6.1
Nunn 6.0
McCaskill 5.1

and Huckabee now tied for 2nd and Sanford drops out of the top 10 on the GOP side:

Romney 26.9
Huckabee 14.0
Pawlenty 14.0
Crist 10.0
Portman 8.0
Fiorina 7.0
Palin 7.0
Thune 6.0
Cantor 5.0
Jindal 4.0

[Mr. Morden]

Clinton / Sebelius surge:

Clinton 25.0
Sebelius 16.0
Bayh 10.0
Edwards 8.0
Kaine 8.0
Rendell 8.0
Reed 7.9
Hagel 7.6
Biden 7.2

Palin rebounds, and Perdue cracks the top 10 for the first time:

Romney 24.6
Pawlenty 14.0
Palin 13.9
Huckabee 13.0
Crist 8.5
Portman 8.0
Fiorina 7.0
Thune 7.0
Cantor 6.5
Perdue 5.0

[Mr. Morden]

Clinton drops some, and Kaine rises all the way up to 3rd place in Dem. VP odds:

Clinton 20.0
Sebelius 15.0
Kaine 12.0
Bayh 10.2
Reed 7.9
Hagel 7.5
Biden 7.2
Nunn 7.0
McCaskill 6.5
Richardson 6.5

Romney drops and Sanford rebounds back above 5:

Romney 20.0
Pawlenty 14.0
Palin 12.0
Huckabee 11.1
Crist 8.5
Fiorina 7.0
Portman 7.0
Cantor 6.0
Sanford 6.0
Thune 6.0

[Mr. Morden]

What is wrong with picking Kaine I wonder?

Only 3 years' experience holding major office.  Though I guess it's possible that Obama wants to double down on the inexperience thing.

[Mr. Morden]

Dem VP market: Sebelius now leads, while Kaine is close to overtaking Clinton for second place:

Sebelius 17.9
Clinton 15.1
Kaine 15.0

[Mr. Morden]

Clinton now down to 3rd place (narrowly) in Dem. VP market:

Sebelius 16.0
Bayh 15.0
Clinton 14.8
Kaine 13.0
Edwards 9.9
Biden 9.5
Reed 9.0
Hagel 7.9
Nunn 7.0

Port-mentum:

Romney 24.1
Pawlenty 16.2
Portman 13.5
Crist 12.5
Palin 12.0
Huckabee 11.0
Fiorina 10.0
Cantor 6.0
Sanford 6.0
Thune 6.0

[Mr. Morden]

And now Biden inches out Clinton as well, and she's down to (a very close) 4th place:

Sebelius 16.0
Bayh 15.0
Biden 15.0
Clinton 14.8
Kaine 13.0

[Mr. Morden]

Clinton back up to 2nd place, as nearly everyone but Sebelius and Clinton drops:

Sebelius 16.6
Clinton 14.7
Bayh 10.9
Biden 10.2
Kaine 10.0
Hagel 6.8
McCaskill 6.7
Reed 5.3
Clark 5.0
Gephardt 5.0

Portman, Crist, and Palin drop:

Romney 26.1
Pawlenty 12.5
Huckabee 11.0
Crist 7.9
Fiorina 7.0
Portman 6.8
Cantor 6.1
Palin 6.0
Thune 6.0
Jindal 5.0

[Mr. Morden]

Clinton and Sebelius slide, but are still in the top 2:

Sebelius 14.8
Clinton 12.4
Bayh 11.5
Kaine 11.0
Biden 10.1
Hagel 9.4
McCaskill 6.9
Clark 5.6
Reed 5.4
Gephardt 5.0

Pawlenty drops into a tie with Fiorina for 4th place: (Editorial comment: the idea that Fiorina and Pawlenty are equally likely to be McCain's running mate is insane.)

Romney 28.0
Crist 12.4
Huckabee 11.0
Fiorina 10.0
Pawlenty 10.0
Portman 6.8
Cantor 6.1
Palin 6.0
Thune 6.0
Jindal 5.5

[Mr. Morden]

Biden now up to 2nd place in Dem. VP odds:

Sebelius 15.5
Biden 13.0
Clinton 12.9
Kaine 10.1
Bayh 10.0
McCaskill 10.0
Hagel 6.8
Clark 6.6
Reed 5.5
Gephardt 5.1

Huckabee drops, and Palin now up to 2nd place.  Romney's lead grows:

Romney 33.0
Palin 13.0
Pawlenty 11.0
Crist 10.0
Fiorina 7.0
Huckabee 7.0
Portman 7.0
Thune 6.5
Cantor 6.1
Jindal 5.5

[Mr. Morden]

Dem. VP update only: Bayh takes the lead:

Bayh 18.2
Clinton 16.7
Sebelius 15.5
Biden 13.0
Reed 12.0

[Mr. Morden]

Bayh and Sebelius now tied for 1st, and Edwards surges back into the top 10

Bayh 15.1
Sebelius 15.1
Biden 15.0
Clinton 13.8
Kaine 12.4
Edwards 8.0
Nunn 8.0
Hagel 7.0
McCaskill 6.7
Clark 6.5

Enormous surge for Pawlenty:

Romney 37.6
Pawlenty 32.3
Palin 13.0
Crist 10.0
Jindal 9.0
Huckabee 7.2
Fiorina 7.0
Portman 7.0
Thune 7.0
Cantor 6.1

The Pawlenty surge was probably brought on by this:

http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/archive/2008/07/23/1216673.aspx

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[Mr. Morden]

Bayh again alone in first place, Clinton slowly sinking, Hagel drops out of the top 10, and I have no idea why Edwards is still doing so well:

Bayh 19.8
Sebelius 15.1
Biden 13.4
Kaine 12.6
Clinton 9.2
Nunn 9.0
Edwards 7.5
McCaskill 6.7
Clark 6.5
Reed 6.1

Pawlenty drops (but is still a solid 2nd); Portman and Thune gain:

Romney 38.7
Pawlenty 25.0
Palin 15.0
Portman 11.7
Crist 10.0
Thune 10.0
Huckabee 7.2

Here are the top traded items by total volume (between the two VP markets); I give the name, and then the number of shares traded to date:

Hagel 21,961
Clinton 4248
Jindal 2332
Edwards 1940
Romney 1743

It looks like the bulk of those Hagel shares were traded on just one day, July 20.  I have no idea why there was so much activity then.

[Mr. Morden]

Big surge for Bayh; Kaine moves up to 2nd place; Reed gains despite ruling himself out; Clinton sinks further:

Bayh 30.0
Kaine 18.0
Sebelius 15.1
Biden 14.1
Reed 10.0
Nunn 9.0
Edwards 7.5
McCaskill 6.0
Clinton 5.5

Pawlenty and Crist gain; huge gains for Ridge:

Romney 39.0
Pawlenty 30.0
Crist 13.0
Palin 13.0
Portman 11.7
Ridge 10.0
Thune 10.0
Huckabee 7.2

Ridge's gains are likely because of this news story, which claims that the short list consists of Pawlenty, Romney, and Ridge:

http://www.bizjournals.com/phoenix/stories/2008/07/21/daily49.html

No one news organizations have picked up on the story, so I doubt it's true.

[Mr. Morden]

Big surges for Kaine and Gephardt; Reed and Nunn drop below 5:

Bayh 34.9
Kaine 30.0
Sebelius 13.1
Biden 10.1
Gephardt 8.5
Edwards 7.3

Pawlenty and Romney drop, but remain in the top two; Thune drops to 5:

Romney 30.0
Pawlenty 25.0
Palin 15.0
Crist 13.0
Portman 10.0
Ridge 10.0
Huckabee 8.0
Cantor 6.0

[Mr. Morden]

Big time surge for Kaine in the Dem. VP market:

Kaine 45.0
Bayh 20.0
Sebelius 20.0
Biden 12.2
Gephardt 8.5
Edwards 7.3

[Mr. Morden]

The Kaine-Bayh gap narrows considerably; big shakeup in the 2nd tier:

Kaine 30.1
Bayh 26.0
Sebelius 18.0
Biden 10.7
Schweitzer 5.6
Edwards 5.0
Clinton 4.0
Nunn 4.0
Reed 4.0
Zinni 4.0

Pawlenty now barely edges out Romney in the top spot on the GOP side; Palin gains while Crist, Portman, and Ridge drop:

Pawlenty 30.0
Romney 29.6
Palin 20.0
Thune 6.0
Huckabee 5.1
Cantor 5.0
Crist 5.0
Giuliani 5.0
Portman 5.0
Ridge 5.0

[Mr. Morden]

Zinni?  Who the hell is that?

Retired general and former special envoy to the Middle East.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zinni

Yes, Zinni's name has been mentioned in the past as a possible Obama running mate....but not so much of late.

[Mr. Morden]

Bayh passes Kaine; Lee Hamilton now in 6th place in the Dem. VP odds?:

Bayh 33.0
Kaine 22.7
Sebelius 15.3
Biden 9.5
Clinton 5.9
Lee Hamilton 5.0
Nunn 4.0
Reed 4.0
Zinni 4.0
Rendell 3.5

Pawlenty drops way behind Romney; Cantor moves all the way up to 3rd place:

Romney 35.0
Pawlenty 15.2
Cantor 15.0
Palin 12.0
Crist 10.0
Ridge 5.0
Giuliani 4.6
Huckabee 4.4
Jindal 4.1
Portman 4.0