Who will win in Colorado?

[Never]

Gardner will win. It appears that 2014 is going to have at least the same environment as 2010. Also, some generic congressional ballot polls are showing that the Democrats have a much closer lead this year compared to four years ago, and in 2010 the Democrats lost the House despite that larger lead, and they very well could have ended up with just 50/50 control of the Senate if it weren't for the shoddy Republican Senate candidates in CO, NV, and DE.

Gardner is a much stronger candidate than Ken Buck, yet Buck still lost by a very narrow margin. If the Republicans take control of the Senate, this seat will probably go to the GOP, and right now, I think the Republicans are slightly favored to win the Senate.

It also seems like early leaders in the polls tend to lose ground closer to the election, and considering how small Udall's advantage is, especially when compared to that of the Democratic senators up for reelection in the South, I think Udall is in big danger.