In an
opinion piece for the Boston Globe, Bob Moser, author of "Blue Dixie", provides some commentary on how he views demographics in the South affecting the state of the Democratic party in this region. He holds the view that current Southern Democrats are actually at a disadvantage through their centrist views, arguing that demographic changes will cause full-throated liberalism to reasonate better with voters.
Looking specifically at Georgia, North Carolina, and Virginia, Moser utilizes three charts (shown below) to justify his opinion:
Now, after looking at this chart, I felt that there were some shaky assumptions being made by Moser.
For one, while North Carolina and Virginia are both whiter than Georgia, they are both more Democratic in elections than Georgia, despite the substantial increase in minority turnout associated with President Obama's victories in 2008 and 2012. How exactly is a state like Georgia going to flip in the near future if historically high turnout of Democrat-friendly groups could not deliver the state in a year like 2008? Will minority turnout keep increasing from current levels that are unusually high? Moser did say that he thought minority turnout still has room to grow in the Peach State, but I have my doubts that this is the case. Overall, Moser's piece was a interesting article, but I felt like some of the predictions in it were not entirely realistic.
