Pretending that Virginia represents a victory for the Dems this year when they were running the most popular Virginia politician against a no-hoper lobbyist, and they won after a tense recount, is just ridiculous.
The Republicans nearly won Virginia with very little effort. If any politician besides Warner had been the candidate, they would have.
I can see both sides of this honestly. On one hand, what you said is correct. On the other hand, if Republicans were going to win in Virginia, wouldn't it have been in this extremely low turnout Republican wave when Dems were caught napping?
Not necessarily. It's not like Warner was a generic Democrat. He was a uniquely popular candidate who even managed to be elected governor in 2001 while Bush's national approval rating was hovering in the
eighties, and I think it can be fairly said that the problem the GOP ran into in Virginia was that Warner was just a well liked incumbent who wasn't even crippled by his laziness this year. FWIW, I think your question can best be answered by considering whether or not Tim Kaine would have pulled off a win in November.
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