German Elections & Politics

[Zinneke]

It just shows that you can't "feed the tiger" of far-right politics by making concessions like Maassen. Concessions don't reduce their support. There is no way to reduce far-right support except ideological combat.

reduce immigration and crime maybe ?

They still hate seeing Muslim and brown citizens. Once you stop immigration, they demand Moslemraus like the AfD.

Well, if just one country would actually do anything substantial, we could test that hypothesis. If people actually start seeing criminal immigrants deported, rejected asylum seekers deported, a stop to non-western immigration, and withdrawn residence permits for long-term unemployed foreign nationals, I think most people would be fairly satisfied. But unfortunately, we haven't come remotely close to that anywhere.

But yes, if you talk the issue of immigration even further up the agenda, and then don't do anything to solve it (or token concessions), it will only help AfD. Then it is probably strategically better to stay off the topic, and instead talk up the issues where there is actually some trust in your party (if such exists...)

You list these measures as if its as easy as raising a tax here and lowering a pension age there. Its not that simple to deport them back to their countries, when their countries would either execute them or refuse to take them in. Its not that simple to deport them when they have burnt their passport and fingerprints and the only people you can identify are their home country's dictators. Its not that simple to deport long term unemployed when your own agricultural market employs them on the black market and your local politician knows this and works a few "contacts" to make sure they stay.

And then when you say a stop to non-Western immigration, why don't you just use the racial terms while we're at it. You want only white immigration, maybe Hispanic if they're the educated kind - because you see race as an important part of our society, that's fine. Or maybe its the religious aspect you feel is more important. We are apparently a Christian continent that cannot possibly allow other faiths in. That's also fine.
But then you understand why German politicians outside the AfD cannot possibly use such language. Its easy for Danes to say. No colonial empire since the Vikings (big innovators in slave trade though!), not really responsible for the sh*t show the MENA has become, big aid donor, relatively homogenous. But different for France, UK, Belgium and to a lesser extent Germany with their past.

So you see, its not that simple a debate. Its why even an immigration minister such as Theo Francken who is as hard conservative as they come and is likely an ex-skinhead, still has not managed to turn all the migrants you describe away. The only way to do this would be to rip up all the conventions on rule of law, individual rights, etc. This is a road European nations have gone down countless times in the name of solving a crisis and its not one they should go down.  Let's see what happens to Hungary.

[Zinneke]

It just shows that you can't "feed the tiger" of far-right politics by making concessions like Maassen. Concessions don't reduce their support. There is no way to reduce far-right support except ideological combat.

reduce immigration and crime maybe ?

They still hate seeing Muslim and brown citizens. Once you stop immigration, they demand Moslemraus like the AfD.

Well, if just one country would actually do anything substantial, we could test that hypothesis. If people actually start seeing criminal immigrants deported, rejected asylum seekers deported, a stop to non-western immigration, and withdrawn residence permits for long-term unemployed foreign nationals, I think most people would be fairly satisfied. But unfortunately, we haven't come remotely close to that anywhere.

But yes, if you talk the issue of immigration even further up the agenda, and then don't do anything to solve it (or token concessions), it will only help AfD. Then it is probably strategically better to stay off the topic, and instead talk up the issues where there is actually some trust in your party (if such exists...)

You list these measures as if its as easy as raising a tax here and lowering a pension age there. Its not that simple to deport them back to their countries, when their countries would either execute them or refuse to take them in. Its not that simple to deport them when they have burnt their passport and fingerprints and the only people you can identify are their home country's dictators. Its not that simple to deport long term unemployed when your own agricultural market employs them on the black market and your local politician knows this and works a few "contacts" to make sure they stay.

And then when you say a stop to non-Western immigration, why don't you just use the racial terms while we're at it. You want only white immigration, maybe Hispanic if they're the educated kind - because you see race as an important part of our society, that's fine. Or maybe its the religious aspect you feel is more important. We are apparently a Christian continent that cannot possibly allow other faiths in. That's also fine.
But then you understand why German politicians outside the AfD cannot possibly use such language. Its easy for Danes to say. No colonial empire since the Vikings (big innovators in slave trade though!), not really responsible for the sh*t show the MENA has become, big aid donor, relatively homogenous. But different for France, UK, Belgium and to a lesser extent Germany with their past.

So you see, its not that simple a debate. Its why even an immigration minister such as Theo Francken who is as hard conservative as they come and is likely an ex-skinhead, still has not managed to turn all the migrants you describe away. The only way to do this would be to rip up all the conventions on rule of law, individual rights, etc. This is a road European nations have gone down countless times in the name of solving a crisis and its not one they should go down.  Let's see what happens to Hungary.

One thing is the practicalities, another is the actual political will. If there was an actual political wish to deport criminal foreigners, it could probably be understood that there are some practical difficulties in carrying it out. But right now the political will is not to deport criminals because of the international conventions. You will often see court statements in Denmark finish with the horrible sentence "cannot be deported due to Denmark's international obligations". Once that hurdle is gone, one could start to focus on the practicalities.

You think there is no political will behind deporting illegal immigrants? Even though numerous polls point to the contrary, and centre-right and even some centre-left parties across the board are they themselves converting to this idea of doing away with international obligations to do so?

Also, international obligations are almost certainly enshrined into Danish law, especially European obligation (direct effect), correct me if I'm wrong. So it is the judge's role to take this into account. Not to base it on his or her view of the consequences of interpreting the law that way. I'm sure you are one of the first critics of judges acting like politicians.

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Agreed here in principle, but it again ignores the reality on the ground. If you escape your country because you are being hunted for being political opposition, do you really think you have the time to pop by the embassy in the capital and ask for asylum? You first think of getting out.

I don't object to European asylum centres on the Libyan coast though.

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So keep them in prison. And yes that comes with problems too : radicalisation, zero possibility of integration, etc. So its a wicked problem. But nobody on the left is arguing that these people should receive special treatment in front of the law just because they are from another country. But it shows the difficulties of public migration policy

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You are the one who is naive if you don't think saying you only want Western immigration doesn't have racial and religious undertones.

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So our culture in the West is uniform now? Where did I ever argue against integration of these people into our cultures anyway? Poor strawman.

Also, what is your view in accepting Afrikaners as refugees? I think they hold very different cultural views than ours, especially my own, but I would still accept them. But do you not think they should be rejected based on the cultural criteria?

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So if Europe ever becomes a war torn sh**thole like it was in WW2, you would have no problem with host countries, in say, Latin America, ensuring that only Spaniards and Portuguese are selected because of their cultural affinity. "Those Danes who basically are all racist, protestant, stingy white people who turned down poor africans to drown in the Med anyway, (since we are making sweeping generalisations), totally incompatible with our values". Hope you are among the first one to experience that policy when the waters start rising, Diouf!

I'd rather judge people as individuals, and if they commit even the lightest of crimes deport them. Unfortunately we don't have a machine like in Minority Report where we can predict which migrants will commit crime and which ones will not. So in the meantime we have to give them the benefit of presumption of innocence. Another Western value your likes don't seem to want to defend as much as cultural purity.  

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Umm yes, let's give a hard nationalist just recently associated with a group arming themselves for a "race war" full reign over immigration policy. Why not do away with seperation of powers while we are at it, and then we can truly become just like a MENA country.

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Wonderful way to undermine any multilateral deal we could make in the future, just walk away from those terrible "international obligations" you raged about earlier that also allow Denmark, Germany and so many other Nordic countries to export their goods. International obligations that benefited Danish freedom fighters during WW2 while the nihilistic "its not my problem so why should i care" kind of people helped Germans round up and execute jews, gays, etc.

I'll readily admit that the procedural mechanisms need revising, and there needs to be objective criteria as to what constitutes a safe country, but to scrap the entire international conventions on refugees for the sake of this crisis (1 refugee per 1000 European citizens) is a dangerous game considering the uncertainties the future can always hold.

[Zinneke]

You think there is no political will behind deporting illegal immigrants? Even though numerous polls point to the contrary, and centre-right and even some centre-left parties across the board are they themselves converting to this idea of doing away with international obligations to do so?

Also, international obligations are almost certainly enshrined into Danish law, especially European obligation (direct effect), correct me if I'm wrong. So it is the judge's role to take this into account. Not to base it on his or her view of the consequences of interpreting the law that way. I'm sure you are one of the first critics of judges acting like politicians.

I think there is some misunderstanding of the point here. I'm not criticizing the judges; I'm saying the current state of the law is wrong, when it leads to a situation where judges have to make these statements that foreign criminals cannot be deported due to international obligations. And the current state of the law is the responsibility of the politicians, so it clearly seems there is no political will to deport criminal foreigners. I have seen very few politicians advocate dropping the relevant provision of the European Convention on Human Rights, which is neccessary to avoid foreign criminals being protected from deportation.

Because that ECHR needs to be taken more seriously than just scrapping the parts a plurality of people don't like. It was made after Europe descended into the greatest war in human history, and that phenomenon was not just elite driven, and thus did not require just limitations elite power, it was also people driven. Its why we have all also abolished the death penalty despite polls showing it is popular amongst EU citizens. 

So yes, I think the politicians are right to not think that a refugee crisis (which by definition is temporary) justifies knee jerk reactions relating to our acquis

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Nice with some agreement When asylum seekers do not have documents, it is the job of the case worker to figure out whether they are telling the truth or not, often via questions about language, story, area knowledge etc. This is the best shot of solving these situations. Not refusal of all without documents, but certainly not just accepting all people without them.[/quote]

Yes and the case worker, judges people on a case by case basis. Not on their previous community, religion or race. That's how our legal system and bureaucracy works. That's the small-L liberalism (which I would rather call constitutional democracy - that is - democracy limited by constitutional rights) we have bought into and its universality is absolutely vital. That means treating foreigners the same way.

You want to judge people based on how well their countries perform in the HDI.

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Well, when dealing with criminal foreigners waiting for deportation, the goal is not integration. That is the goal for all those who actually want to participate to society, and not break it.[/quote]

The goal of prison is to ensure that, if released, the person will not re-offend. Integration would play a large part in that. Its hard though when they log on here to see the kind of rhetoric even moderates such as yourself tow against "non-Western" immigration, as if they are a 5th column.

Why cant you see the negative effect - indicated by the formation of parties like DENK - that parties like PVV/N-VA/AfD are having on integration via consistent media rhetoric over who is a Good Negro and who isn't. They themselves have created a cleavage that automatically pits the defenders of Western values against those who would not belong to it. 

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But how would that work in reality then, when you don't won't to "guess" beforehand whether these migrants will be beneficial or not? Just open the doors for everyone, and then try to pick out the rotten apples afterwards? You just described the difficulties that can be in deportation, so that would seem a quite difficult system. It would make a lot more sense to more informed guesses based on neutral indicators to sort this out beforehand. As I wrote country and skills background would be fairly simple indicators. And if you just open the doors completely, you will of course also get a way higher number of people than it is possible to handle in terms of effect on job market, housing, administration etc. [/quote]

I never mentioned opening the doors completely, but those who do enter should be jduged as individuals. For that, and for effectively deporting the ones who are "rotten", you need a strong state, effective bureaucracy that judges people on a case by case basis, and a proper management and spread of migration relating to urban areas (de-ghettoisation). 

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He's said numerous times he is not limited by the other parties (trust me, they are the ones who are limited). He's limited by the legal system, which he has criticised numerous times, calling it leftist, 5th column, etc. He want to effectively have arbitrary power over who is in his country and who is out. Of course, if you put the same scenario to him but with a pro-migration minister, you know what the answer would be : why aren't we respectign the rule of law by deporting xyz etc.

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International treaties can and should indeed be changed. The issue is countries thinking they can all the benefits of an international treaty and system, without any of the sacrifices. And the other issue with international treaties, as you well know with the EU, is that if you commence a revision of it, you risk jeopardising the entire system as each country looks towards formulating their own national interests - that may have significant effects. 

So if you taketh away from the right of war-torn countries citizens to seek refuge in peaceful ones and dump those refugees on countries that cannot manage them, expect countries at risk of war to not cooperate with you on other matters. The most effective way to solve these problems is via a multilateral route. 

THe current status quo just needs better bilateral agreements (you are right to talk about aid being a key factor to), better procedural mechanisms, and better definition of safe zones. Remember we used to have a system of creating safe zones within the conflict zones and Responsibility to Protect, but this is all but dead after Libya.

 Revising the entire refugee system because some migrants try to treat it is a dangerous game to play.

[Zinneke]

The CSU hits another record low, just like the SPD and surprisingly even the AfD (which already polled at 14-15%):



State election is in 1 week.

This Tender Take reminds me of the time Ron Paul came second in an Iowa Straw Poll and everybody was doing their best to avoid mentioning his name on Fox : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dWet2SbU07c