EP elections 2014

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...and ICM also has the Tories with a two-point lead for the GE.

If Labour comes third in ten days' time, it might be time to start thinking about putting Burnham in as leader...oh yeah, right, this isn't Australia.

Let's be honest, if Ed goes, then Labour won't be attempting a "risky choice" again. They'll probably go for Tristram Hunt, or if the Labour party are really out of touch, Ed Balls.

ICM poll for UK: Con 27, UKIP 26, Lab 24, Green 10, Lib Dem 7

Ugh... (well apart from the Greens doing OK)

hmm, I'd take that at this point, Labour need a kick up the backside, and once the seats are doled out it'd be near enough a three way tie than anything else

I can't really think of any reason why Labour should have sunk recently. No notable gaffes that I can think of, and most of the negative press this week has been around Gove. Odd, probably an outlier.

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Let's be honest, if Ed goes, then Labour won't be attempting a "risky choice" again. They'll probably go for Tristram Hunt, or if the Labour party are really out of touch, Ed Balls.

Um... no.

Most probable if-Miliband-fell-under-a-bus leader is Burnham, fwiw.

Are you sure? That's not accusatory, I was just idly speculating. I'd have thought Burnham was too left-wing for the Parliamentary group...

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YouGov/The Scum

Labour 28, UKIP 24, Con 22, Green 12, LDem 10, Nat 3, BNP 1

There now seems to be another YouGov poll with Lab 27 UKIP 27 Con 23 LD 10 Green 8.  Also (get those pinches of salt ready):

Survation: UKIP 32 Lab 27 Con 23 LD 9 Green 4
Opinium: UKIP 31 Lab 29 Con 20 LD 5 (!) Green 5
TNS: UKIP 31 Lab 28 Con 21 LD 7

Is the low benchmark for the LibDems in a national election the 6% they got in 1989?

On an unrelated issue, why on earth was the Green vote so high back then?

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A bit of expectation management for the Lib Dems in the Guardian.

Zero seats would really be worse for them than most people are predicting.  They should at least hold on in the South East.

Not many sensible people are predicting a wipeout

People forget that there are still LibDem ''safe seats'' It is well and truly part of the establishment parties in that respect.

To be fair, this election is PR and therefore they can't rely on safe seats or local incumbency.

But, yeah people predicting zero seats are primarily overly-gleeful activists of other parties (the party activists I've met loath Lib Dems to a pathological (and pre-coalition) degree).

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zomg Golden Dawn have totally sold out!!!

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/may/23/golden-dawn-greece-european-election