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CrabCake
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Posts: 19,335
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« on: September 01, 2015, 12:51:37 PM » |
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Fracking is a huge portion of it, both in terms of the oversupply of oil and the subsequent attempts by OPEC to destroy it; as well as the subsequent glut of displaced American coal coming into the overseas trade competing with the oversupply from other coal mines at the worst possible time (when Chinese demand for both thermal and coking coal was collapsing). The question is, is this a cyclic thing or is the coal market in a structural decline as demand falls?
Of the major players, the Chinese are cutting back on coal imports surprisingly quickly, the Indian coal market is an enormous state of instability at the moment, as are the South Africans, and the coal plants in Germany/Britain/Canada/America seem to be dying a slow death. Only SE Asia (the Phillipines/Indonesia/Thailand/Vietnam) and the Balkans offer a real chance for growth in the thermal sector. I think this coal glut is only going to get worse (RIP AUSTRALIA)
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