Australia General Discussion 2.0

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The citizenship chaos has ensnared more people: Fiona Nash, the Deputy Nationals leader; justice Minister Michael Keenan and Nick Xenophon, the SA crossbencher have all had their citizenships called into question.

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Have we talked about Abbott confessing that he missed the GFC vote because he got plastered?

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https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/oct/10/tony-abbott-says-climate-change-is-probably-doing-good

Abbott still a dumbarse.

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Apparatus the Best plan is to run in only 20 electorates at the moment, although that may change.

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chances of Turnbull making it through to next election?

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Abbott must be even dumber than I thought if he thinks he has a shot at returning to power. I guess he thinks the coalition will rhyme with the Rudd-Gillard-Rudd era, but Rudd was brought back because he was genuinely popular (or at least had the capability of being popular) with the electorate, which meant the ALP wanted him to save the furniture even if they hated his guts. With Abbott, he is disliked by both the public and the backbenchers; and really was never particularly great at politics to begin with (three world slogans aside).

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Great speech.

You're Jewish. You do realise what "Final Solution" is a reference to, no?

I don't think he meant it as a reference to Nazi Germany. And the actual content of his speech, i.e. an end to mass immigration and support for an immigration policy that takes into account cultural compatibility with Australia, was great and refreshing.

Too many people always look for a reason to be outraged with someone supporting ideas they oppose, find one thing (usually out of context or deliberately misunderstood), and use it to discard the entire argument and smear the person who said it.

Come off it, man. The phrase "Final Solution" is permanently associated with the Holocaust, and it strains credibility that somebody in the context of making an anti-immigration speech could use the term innocently. He used it purposefully (and he added the phrase personally to the speech) because he wanted to ensure his speech would be as notorious as possible.

The content of speech was racist, xenophobic and homophobic bile. I know those words are little more than buzzwords nowadays, but I struggle to identify much in there to  take lightly (especially given that the mainstream Australian establishment are hardly hippy dippy pro migration activists themselves).

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The Holocaust had absolutely nothing to do with anti-immigration policy. Nothing. If this speech was about getting rid of minorities with Australian passports already living in Australia, I would wholeheartedly agree with you. I also agree that this was poor wording exactly because of the connotation of this term. But I don't think this was intentional.

I'm not suggest that Anning wants to commit the Holocaust against Muslims in Australia; what I am saying is that he deliberately used the language he knew was the most edgy and inflammatory to ensure it would cause the maximum level of outrage so he could then play coy afterwards. In the English language, the phrase "final solution" does not crop up organically outside discussions of the Holocaust; it doesn't even make that much sense in the context he used the phrase if you ignore the Nazi usage of the term.

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Dutton is probably Turnbull's least competent rival outside of Tony2, so the Right coalescing around an alternate leadership contender could be quite bad for Mal.

I notice he has completely folded to the Right factions on the carbon emissions issue.

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I mean, I guess Dutton will save them a few marginals in Queensland maybe; but at the cost of being massacred in Victoria and NSW right?

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I'm guessing in SA the assumption is that Xenephon will underperform his previous score so they won't add seats like Grey and Sturt to their number?

So I'm guessing you're predicting the Libs will lose seats like La Trobe, Chisholm, Higgins (to the Greens?) Etc while keeping their seats in regional Queensland like capricornia (and their metro seats like Brisbane and Forse?)

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What are you predicting will be the 2PP? At the moment ALP is way ahead.

I know Centre Alliance underperformed in the last state election, but Sharks did win her seat back so I assume it's not completely dead. As for Higgins, it strikes me as a seat that would be very ... off on somebody like Dutton.

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Just caught up with this; is there any actual reason for the coup beyond worries about next years election?

Queensland. We're bleeding votes to One Nation in Queensland which don't come back on preferences. Also, Turnbull has lost everyone's confidence, as he has now given up on Tax Cuts. The conservatives want Turnbull's head on a stake, and they're going to get it.

But federal elections don't use OPV, so surely the LNP will get ONP preferences regardless (and iirc Labor just abolished OPV in Queensland state elections anyway)? Unless you think One Nation voters will put Labor above Libs?

To me, it's a dumb move from the right - Turnbull is not exactly toxic as Tony Abbott or Julia Gillard was. When Abbott was rolled, the LNP were lurching from disaster to disaster, gaffes, bad policy moves and losing unlosable elections. When Gillard was ditched, one could quite reasonably argue that the massive election losses she saw in Queensland and NSW would hit the ALP federally.

This is more akin to the rolling of Kevin Rudd - a factional battle that will alienate and piss people off. Especially as they're most angry at Turnbull for climate change policy, an issue where most people support more action by the government.

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Just caught up with this; is there any actual reason for the coup beyond worries about next years election?

Queensland. We're bleeding votes to One Nation in Queensland which don't come back on preferences. Also, Turnbull has lost everyone's confidence, as he has now given up on Tax Cuts. The conservatives want Turnbull's head on a stake, and they're going to get it.

But federal elections don't use OPV, so surely the LNP will get ONP preferences regardless (and iirc Labor just abolished OPV in Queensland state elections anyway)? Unless you think One Nation voters will put Labor above Libs?

To me, it's a dumb move from the right - Turnbull is not exactly toxic as Tony Abbott or Julia Gillard was. When Abbott was rolled, the LNP were lurching from disaster to disaster, gaffes, bad policy moves and losing unlosable elections. When Gillard was ditched, one could quite reasonably argue that the massive election losses she saw in Queensland and NSW would hit the ALP federally.

This is more akin to the rolling of Kevin Rudd - a factional battle that will alienate and piss people off. Especially as they're most angry at Turnbull for climate change policy, an issue where most people support more action by the government.

Nope, Antony Green showed that for every 10 votes the LNP loses to One Nation they only got 6 back.

Can you link? Not denying it, just curious.

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http://www.roymorgan.com/findings/7708-morgan-poll-turnbull-shorten-dutton-august-22-2018-201808220930?platform=hootsuite

This is why I think this is a bad move from the Libs. Turnbull's personal appeal is weaker than it once was, but it certainly outstrips Shorten's. I doubt Dutton will get much of a boost, especially in the sordid manner he is assuming power.

Just caught up with this; is there any actual reason for the coup beyond worries about next years election?

Queensland. We're bleeding votes to One Nation in Queensland which don't come back on preferences. Also, Turnbull has lost everyone's confidence, as he has now given up on Tax Cuts. The conservatives want Turnbull's head on a stake, and they're going to get it.

But federal elections don't use OPV, so surely the LNP will get ONP preferences regardless (and iirc Labor just abolished OPV in Queensland state elections anyway)? Unless you think One Nation voters will put Labor above Libs?

To me, it's a dumb move from the right - Turnbull is not exactly toxic as Tony Abbott or Julia Gillard was. When Abbott was rolled, the LNP were lurching from disaster to disaster, gaffes, bad policy moves and losing unlosable elections. When Gillard was ditched, one could quite reasonably argue that the massive election losses she saw in Queensland and NSW would hit the ALP federally.

This is more akin to the rolling of Kevin Rudd - a factional battle that will alienate and piss people off. Especially as they're most angry at Turnbull for climate change policy, an issue where most people support more action by the government.

Nope, Antony Green showed that for every 10 votes the LNP loses to One Nation they only got 6 back.

Can you link? Not denying it, just curious.

It was from the Queensland election night coverage.

That was the election where ONP put all incumbents last in their directed preferences, right?

Anyway, I'm not sure what is to be done in general. Iirc the key message from the commentaries on Queensland and WA elections was that any attempts to work with ONP backfired hard on the LNP?

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http://www.roymorgan.com/findings/7708-morgan-poll-turnbull-shorten-dutton-august-22-2018-201808220930?platform=hootsuite

This is why I think this is a bad move from the Libs. Turnbull's personal appeal is weaker than it once was, but it certainly outstrips Shorten's. I doubt Dutton will get much of a boost, especially in the sordid manner he is assuming power.

Personal favourability didn't work for Turnbull in 2016.

Yes, but it certainly didn't hurt that people actually liked the PM. If Abbott was leading the LNP, we would be talking about Tanya Plibersek's threatened spill against PRime Minister Shorten right now.

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http://www.roymorgan.com/findings/7708-morgan-poll-turnbull-shorten-dutton-august-22-2018-201808220930?platform=hootsuite

This is why I think this is a bad move from the Libs. Turnbull's personal appeal is weaker than it once was, but it certainly outstrips Shorten's. I doubt Dutton will get much of a boost, especially in the sordid manner he is assuming power.

Personal favourability didn't work for Turnbull in 2016.

Yes, but it certainly didn't hurt that people actually liked the PM. If Abbott was leading the LNP, we would be talking about Tanya Plibersek's threatened spill against PRime Minister Shorten right now.

You sure about that?

I'm a Labor Party member. Part of the Left faction, which Plibersek is from, and I have friends from the Right, which Shorten is from. He's generally pretty well-liked by both factions.

Sorry bad joke. I actually don't think Shorten will be kicked, mainly because Kevin changed the rules to stop drive by assassinations. The LNP should really consider something similar...

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I thought ScoMo would be less damaged because (unlike Gillard) he wasn't the one holding the knife; but I suppose the lay observer doesn't really care about that - all they've seen is another arrogant power move by factional intrigue.

I have a personal theory that Abbott wants the LNP to lose so he can regain the position he enjoyed the most: Leader of the Opposition.

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Julie Bishop has announced that she WILL contest the next election as the Liberal candidate for Curtin.

I can't help but think she still has her eye on the leadership position for the Liberals. After all, if she didn't why would she be running? Her biggest case for the top spot during the spill vote was that she was the only one the Liberals could keep parliament under due to her popularity with the Australian public. Polls showed that the public wanted her as PM, but the MPs had their own agenda. I feel that her plan is this: After their (the Liberals) inevitable loss to Labor in the polls next year, she will force a spill on the basis of "I told you so" to unseat Morrison and take the helm of leadership to combat PM Bill Shorten as the Leader of the Opposition. After all, polls did say Australians prefered her as PM over Shorten by a massive margin.

Anyways, that's my schpeel for the day.

https://thewest.com.au/politics/federal-politics/julie-bishop-to-contest-curtin-for-liberals-at-next-federal-election-ng-b88947221z

There goes our chance of a leadership calm after we lose the election. Abbott vs Bishop. At least Dutton's losing his seat so we don't have the populist rumblings.

Wouldn't Bishop easily beat Abbott in a spill though? It's pretty clear that the Liberal party would do better after losing parliament under someone as popular as her rather than someone as unpopular and controversial as Tony Abbott. Surely the Liberal MPs would be smart enough not to choose Abbott again?

One issue will be that a particularly bad wipeout of the LNP could kill a lot of their moderates, especially in Victoria (the traditional powerbase of the party).

I don't think Abbott will win against a normal opponent. He has a lot of liabilities with the public, and even his factional allies thought his behaviour last parliament was self-interested and toxic. Bishop has her own problems though, being barely any more liked than Turnbull amongst the party's increasingly strident membership and cadre. Theres also the issue that Abbott may be announced the true Right candidate for lack of any other potential leader, especially given the fact Dutton will probably lose his electorate.

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https://www.reuters.com/article/us-climate-change-australia-protests/australian-kids-walk-out-of-school-to-protest-climate-inaction-idUSKCN1NZ0FN

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Not good for PM Morrison’s re-election campaign when these kids actually turn up to vote.

Well voting's compulsory; you face a fine if you don't vote.

I think he meant when they reached the legal voting age.

The coalition really is in a weird stage. It's as if they've abdicated their traditional role as "natural party of government" and just become a party that relishes being in opposition.