26th February 2016: Iranian legislative election

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

should be, err, intriguing

Both the Islamic Consultative Assembly and the House of Experts are up. The latter is the body which picks the Supreme Leader and Khamenei is like, really old and close to death/retirement; so a Reformist majority could be very ... interesting.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

It's hard to tell in detail beyond the obvious. Rouhani has scored a coup of an ally though, recruiting Hassan Khomeini (grandson of the late Khomeini) as a moderate for the Experts. Though theoretically he could be rejected, the Guardian Council can't really deny someone with his heritage a place. Khamenei's successor (or even if a single Supreme Leader should be appointed - recently Rafsanjani mused about the position being replaced by a council) is also really muddying the waters as well.

The ultraconservatives and their allies in the security services/judiciary/military have also been flexing their muscles, targeting concerts, journos etc. which suggests they're rattled and want to antagonise the West (which is why Obana has been relatively muted on the Iranian militaries' recent actions.

"Registration" finishes on Christmas Day, which will clarify things a bit. (like how "democratic" the GC wants the election to be - they're normally smart enough not to just blatantly veto all moderates, but there is nothing stopping them doing so if they are really desperate)

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

A record 12,000 candidates have been approved, of which more than 1k are women.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Guardian Council have decided to whottle down the list:

http://news.yahoo.com/rouhani-enters-iran-election-row-over-barred-candidates-100337039.html

Out of 3,000 reformists who put their names forwards, they have greenlit ... 30. There is an appeal round, so let's hope the lreformists use their leverage from the successful deal and conservatives see sense (lol, what am I talking about? much like in the west, liberals always end up being useless and conservatives never see sense)

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Moderates doing very well.