British Local Elections, May 2024

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Assuming we don't have a may general, this will be our last electoral test for the sunak ministry. Most followers of this board will be aware of the events that have led the current conservative party to be discredited in the eyes of the electorate, so i will not overlabour that point, but this is going to probably be a very rough ride for the incumbent government (especially as this race was last fought in a post-covid glow, so they have a lot of seats to lose). There is also a small electoral reform, with all mayoral and PCC elections moving to FPTP.

The races include:

- mayoral election. Obviously a lot of attention will be on the capital but I don't expect that to be that interesting. Sadiq Khan is not beloved but he is not hated, and the Tories have largely thrown in the towel with a pretty lousy candidate, Susan Hall. In Birmingham, Andy Street is running for reelection but he is fairly popular and Labour don't have a massively high profile challenge to him - if he wins, expect him to be mentioned all the time as a future tory leader. Street may be popular, but the same does not apply to Ben Houchen in the Tees Valley, who has suffered under corruption allegations and is looking very vulnerable as the Red Wall heads away from the tory party. Incumbent Labour mayors in liverpool, south Yorkshire, west Yorkshire and Manchester all are up, and i don't think there's any drama there.

We also have some new mayoral elections: york and north Yorkshire, east midlands (ben Bradley vs former Labour MP Claire Ward) and the North East (which seems to be a battle between Labour's Kim McGuinness and the leftist ex-Labour incumbent mayor of the "North of Tyne", Jamie Driscoll. Somebody has to do something about these bizarre positions because this is too much bs.

- as usual all sorts of other councils are up: the ones that are fully up include Bristol, Dudley, Dorset and Wokingham. Closer to the time we can probably work out where Lib Dems have potential, where Labour could suffer post gaza backlash, where Tories are most boned etc.

- and of course the PCC's are all up, which will be a useful barometer of the mood of England and Wales (having never lived in a place with a PCC i refuse to believe they are beloved local figures).

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The movement to FPTP will also be interesting because the PCC's (especially at first) have often had decent independent numbers and there are several counties where it is not immediately obvious whether Lib Dems or Labour are the opposition, and with much less need to tactically vote because of a lack of public awareness about these positions.

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The fact that reform are only standing in 12% of wards, aren't standing in most metro mayors where they potentially have a base and are only standing in 2 PCC's aren't a great boost for theories that the party is anything more than an external pressure group on the Tories.

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Though they are clearly prioritising the coming GE over local elections, which clearly sets them apart from not just the LibDems and Greens but some of the bigger "minor" parties. Which doesn't mean such an approach *can't* be successful - the coming election may well be an interesting test of this.

I do understand why they may be going for that strategy (all of ukip's investment in locals just landed them with a small battalion of feuding local weirdos who almost all dropped out of the party), but it means they're heading into the general with very little idea where their target seats will be (if there are indeed any).

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West Midlands poll from Redfield.

Richard Parker (Lab) 42%
Andy Street (Cons) 28%
Elaine Williams (Ref) 13%
Siobhan Harper-Nunes (Green) 7%
Sunny Virk (Lib Dem) 7%
Other 2%

Street's approval ratings show him equally positive with Labour and Tory voters, although not particularly well-known. Parker is 10 points behind Lab GE intentions.

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Just found out the Andy Street is the long-term partner of Michael Fabricant MP.

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Voted: asked about turnout, worker said it was ok in our polling station but bad in nearby wards (Enfield).

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What happens when you have single issue candidates (e.g. all about Gaza) who get elected to a local council and discover they will spend the next three years dealing with parking and dog runs?

Well, ukip got loads of people elected and they spent most of their terms drifting into new formations, arguing or giving up and joining the tories.

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Some of these Con figures in Sun'lun are absolutely abysmal.

8.3 percent in washington north, 2.8 in sandhill, 8.9 in castle...

Shame about St Chads
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Street and Houchen will probably be the kings across the water for the conservative party in their rebuilding era right? (Maybe the latter would prefer to stay out of the national media glare, but...)

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Hatch Warren and Beggarwood (Basingstoke and Deane) council election result:

WEP: 61.6% (+61.6)
CON: 25.9% (-16.0)
LAB: 12.5% (-9.4)

First Women's equality Party victory

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Driscoll has conceded in a chat with journalists. Reportedly he immediately pivoted to talking about running again in four years time.

At that rate local gov changes in this country, the role might not even exist in four years time.

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Labour fail to take one of their "easier" PCC gains on paper - Humberside - but then win Norfolk and Northamptonshire. Please make it make sense

Norfolk does seem to be in an unusually strong anti-tory mood at the moment.

As for humberside ... Maybe it's the Lib Dem strength in Hull right now?

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When do the first results from the London mayoral race come in ?

Tomorrow, when they start counting.

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Are the media trying to bait rishi into calling an election with this BS lmao

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When do the first results from the London mayoral race come in ?

Tomorrow, when they start counting.

Wait then why is the rumour mill going on about Sadiq Khan loosing ?

I imagine its some unofficial attempts to do "exit polling" from party people, but god knows.

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Khan has just taken West Central (Westminster, Chelsea, Kensington, Hammersmith), the first time a labour candidate has taken it. I think we can call this...

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I think the West Midlands result also may be closer than we thought yesterday.

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Kudos to tories, London and West Midlands combined have got to be the worst election night messaging in political history. The epitome of wanting a quick sugar high from some positive buzz on twitter that immediately leaves you hungover.

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Khan is not massively popular, but he is not hated - most people think him as a genial guy. Therefore the really personal attacks from tory partisans (who do loathe him beyond normal partisanship) has limited effects on median voters.

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New assembly. Tories lose one seat, reform gain one. You'll note that conservatives didn't force the "simple" FPTP on this race like they did elsewhere. Although the flip in the chelsea seat was amusing (and in line with trends), the swing in the east constituency was largest.