PAK Man
Jr. Member
Posts: 752
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« Reply #1 on: August 07, 2015, 08:37:40 AM » |
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Time for me to take a fresh look at this:
Safe R:
- Alabama
- Arkansas
- Idaho
- Kansas
- Louisiana
- North Dakota
- Oklahoma
- South Carolina
- South Dakota
- Utah
Likely R:
- Alaska
- Arizona
- Georgia (Debated moving this to Safe R or not, but I'm waiting for the D field to develop/not develop before doing so)
- Indiana
- Iowa (I'm honestly not convinced that Grassley's going to end up running in the end; after the filing deadline passes I'll revisit this race, but for now it's still Likely R)
- Kentucky (The whole Rand Paul situation has this race in limbo for now)
- Missouri
Leans R:
- New Hampshire
- North Carolina (The possibility of Shuler entering this race has me keeping it here)
- Ohio
- Pennsylvania
Tossup:
- Florida
- Illinois (I'm waiting to move this to Leans D; I know people keep saying Kirk is toast, but as someone who grew up on the border of the 9th/10th Districts, I was able to see first hand his amazing ability to win unwinnable races)
- Nevada
Leans D:
- Colorado
- Wisconsin (Yes, I think Johnson is much more vulnerable than Kirk. Johnson hasn't bothered to moderate himself in a D-leaning state and Feingold, despite his flaws, is the best candidate to go against him)
Safe D:
- California
- Connecticut
- Hawaii
- Maryland
- New York
- Oregon
- Vermont
- Washington
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