Welcome to the Runoff!: LA 2015 Liveblog

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Only to tonight will we have a clear idea of just how much Vitter has been damaged recently. If he easily makes the runoff, then he really hasn't taken that much damage, and has a good chance of winning. If he just barely makes it, then the damage is real, and Edwards would really be in good shape. If Vitter loses to Dardenne or Angelle, I think he's probably gone from the senate after 2016, likely due to a primary challenge. Dardenne or Angelle would be modest favorites against Edwards.

tl;dr
If Vitter easily makes the runoff -> Likely Vitter
If Vitter barely makes the runoff -> Lean Edwards
If Vitter fails to make the runoff -> Lean Dardenne/Angelle, and Vitter is toast in 2016

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Wow, these were exactly the results Edwards needed. Vitter narrowly survived this round, but clearly took damage from the recent scandal. NEVER thought I'd say this, but... Lean DEM gain.

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This is definitely good news for Edwards, but I'm still getting serious Kansas 2014 vibes from this race. Many moderate Republicans in Kansas supported Paul Davis, but it still wasn't enough.

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This is definitely good news for Edwards, but I'm still getting serious Kansas 2014 vibes from this race. Many moderate Republicans in Kansas supported Paul Davis, but it still wasn't enough.

Davis never had a 20 point lead though.

Right, but the polls were still significantly off. If Edwards is still ahead by double digits two weeks from now, I'll be less worried. If he's ahead something like 48-45, though...

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I guess we don't need to ask if there's an enthusiasm gap or not. Seriously, if Edwards can't win this, candidate quality is officially irrelevant to politics.

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Edwards won't govern as a liberal if he's elected, we can be pretty sure about that. I'm not sure he'll be the conservadem people claim that he is, though. I'm guessing he'll be more moderate than most Democratic governors, but still clearly a Democrat.

I'm predicting about a 4.5% victory for Edwards, but my concern is that the recent focus on national security will help Vitter, and might just be enough for him to sneak past Edwards. I'm still guessing Edwards will win, but I'm not extremely confident in that prediction.

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Well, only five hours until the polls close. I'm still predicting a small Edwards win, but I can't deny that I'm feeling pretty uneasy, and I don't have a lot of confidence in that prediction. I know.... "This isn't Kentucky." But there have been many polling failures in the past two years, and the fact that Louisiana has been such a hard place for a Democrat to win are still making an Edwards win seem like something from another reality.

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It's very early, but it is worth noting that Louisiana does not have a Democratic counting bias like Kentucky. The early results won't necessarily overestimate Edwards' eventually percentage.

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Wow, it's not even 10 PM ET, and Vitter's already toast! So much for that "Vittermentum", eh? I guess the polling industry won't go out of business, now. Congratulations, Governor-elect Edwards!

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I agree that Edwards was helped enormously by Vitter's mistakes, but I doubt he would've won without really going after Vitter and presenting himself as a solid alternative. Plenty of Democrats last year ran against unpopular Republicans, but ran poor campaigns and lost.

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I honestly wouldn't be surprised if Edwards won by 12 or more points.

Called it.

Well, I'll give credit where credit is due. Congrats, TNvolunteer! This doesn't mean I buy NH being Safe D, mind you.