Xing
xingkerui
Atlas Superstar
Posts: 30,319
Political Matrix
E: -6.52, S: -3.91
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« on: January 13, 2015, 10:17:11 PM » |
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Hagan probably would've won by about 6 points, considering how much she overperformed Obama in 2008.
Colorado is harder to tell, since Udall might've run on more than just abortion if he had run in 2012, and might've touted Obama's record. Either way, I'd say that he would've won, probably by at least 3 or 4.
I actually think Begich would've narrowly won. True, Obama wouldn't have helped him much, but consider the fact that Tester and Heitkamp also won in states Obama lost by double digits. I'd say Begich by 1 or 2.
Pryor would still have gone down, though by more like 7 or 8 points.
Landrieu would've gotten more like 46 or 47 percent in the general election, but probably still would've lost the runoff by 6 or so.
I know this is about defeated incumbent senators, but I think the senate race in Iowa would've gone down MUCH differently...
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