2018 elections if GOP wins White House

[Xing]

Assuming that Bush isn't terribly popular, Republicans will get massacred in governor's races. I'd expect FL, IL, ME, MD, MA, MI, NM, OH, and WI to be favored for Democrats, and IA, KS, NV, and possibly GA to be competitive. In the senate, Republicans could still gain a couple of seats, but probably not more than 2 or 3. If it were a Democratic wave, though, I'd expect them to either break even, or lose 1 to 2 seats.

[Xing]

You guys are way too certain about Donnelly losing. Sure, he'd be an underdog in a neutral to bad year for Democrats, but there's no way he'd be gone for sure in a good year.

-Indiana is not Utah. Democrats can win under the right circumstances. Why did Evan Bayh win re-election in 2004 (not such a good year for Dems)? Why did Pence come so close to losing in 2012, and why do people even entertain the thought that he could lose in 2016?

-Sure, Donnelly beat a joke candidate. So did Heitkamp. In fact, she did by much less, in a state that is even less hospitable to Democrats. Why does she magically have a decent chance of getting re-elected? Is she really more "moderate" than Donnelly? Does that really matter so much?

Those who say that Donnelly is doomed even though he's not up for re-election in 2018, and yet claim that Kirk has near even chances of getting re-elected next year have a bit of explaning to do.

[Xing]

Donnelly is a good campaigner. He represented one of the most conservative districts where the incumbent voted for Obamacare after 2010. I agree he will most likely lose than win if this is a neutral year/republican year. But he has political skills.

Travis Childers, Alison Grimes, Joe Dorman, Kay Hagan, Scott Brown, etc. Running a strong campaign often isn't enough these days.

Of course,
But this is annoying to read comments implying that Donnelly is doomed even with a republican president.

Sure, no one is saying that he is TOTALLY doomed. Anything can happen. Ron Johnson could win reelection next year, who knows.

No one is calling the WI Senate race anything more than Lean D, and some people still consider it a toss-up. Johnson already has a clear opponent (one who isn't a joke), and he's made no effort to moderate. Donnelly has no clear opponent, this race is more than three years out, and he has been much more moderate than the average Democratic senator, though he's no Manchin. By the same token, I don't think it makes sense to call this race anything other than Lean R, and I'd call it a Toss-up if Republicans win the WH in 2016.

Wulfric made some decent points, but Indiana is not as Republican-leaning as Tennessee (where I don't think any Democrat could win), and who's to say that Donnelly can't build a coalition in the same way that Bayh did? Berg wasn't as much of a joke as Mourdock, but if Heitkamp's win was a miracle, why would it happen again in 2018? There are some strongly Democratic leaning areas of Indiana, where a GOTV effort can prove crucial. A path to victory for a Democrat in North Dakota is much more narrow, even if there are fewer voters that need to be swayed.