NH, VA, ME, IA and NV - how do you see those states trending in the future? (user search)
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  NH, VA, ME, IA and NV - how do you see those states trending in the future? (search mode)
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Poll
Question: NH, VA, ME, IA and NV - how will they trend?
#1
NH - Will trend D
 
#2
NH - Will trend R
 
#3
NH - Will not trend any way
 
#4
VA - Will trend D
 
#5
VA - Will trend R
 
#6
VA - Will not trend any way
 
#7
ME - Will trend D
 
#8
ME- Will trend R
 
#9
ME - Will not trend any way
 
#10
IA - Will trend D
 
#11
IA - Will trend R
 
#12
IA - Will not trend any way
 
#13
NV - Will trend D
 
#14
NV - Will trend R
 
#15
NV - Will not trend any way
 
Show Pie Chart
Partisan results

Total Voters: 38

Calculate results by number of options selected
Author Topic: NH, VA, ME, IA and NV - how do you see those states trending in the future?  (Read 2874 times)
Xing
xingkerui
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 30,326
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.52, S: -3.91

P P P
« on: September 24, 2016, 07:13:03 PM »

NH: Will remain Democratic-leaning, and Republicans will only be successful under favorable conditions.
VA: Will fall off of the battleground map, barring a re-alignment.
ME: ME-02 may become fertile ground for Republicans (while it still exists,) but unless they start winning it by double digits, they won't come close to winning ME overall, though moderate Republicans may continue to have success in downballot races.
IA: Is probably going to go the way of MO.
NV: Republicans will continue to be duped by close poll numbers, and shocked on election day when it goes Democratic by safe margins. After each election that isn't a Republican wave, when Democrats easily win, people will think "Hmmm, NV went for the Democrat by 5/7/10/16 points, maybe it's starting to trend Democratic..." Until a poll shows a tight race two years later, and then "OMG! NEVADA'S A TOSS-UP AND ANYONE WHO THINKS OTHERWISE IS DELUSIONAL! I DON'T CARE ABOUT PAST RESULTS, THIS IS A NEW YEAR AND NEVADA IS DEFINITELY GOING TO BE CLOSE THIS YEAR!"Will become more Republican than NE-03 because muh uneducated whites and Trump's Casinoresortmachine™.
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Xing
xingkerui
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 30,326
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.52, S: -3.91

P P P
« Reply #1 on: January 26, 2017, 10:02:32 PM »

Alright, I'll modify my answer a bit.

NH: Hard to tell. If Democrats double down on identity politics, I'll probably trend a bit R. If they go in a more populist direction, it'll stay where it is, or maybe trend a bit D.

VA: Probably heading to the left, but it's still at least somewhat of a battleground.

ME: It trended sharply Republican last year, but I'm not yet convinced that it wasn't somewhat of a fluke, kind of like the inverse of Montana in 2008. Unless Democrats don't change their tune at all, I'd be surprised not to see it swing back to the Democrats a bit in 2020. As for the long-term trend, I think it will continue to lean Democratic at the national level, while being more favorable for Republicans in down ballot races.

IA: Definitely trending R, and it's going to be hard (but not impossible) for Democrats to reverse that trend. I could see Democrats winning some races there under the right conditions, but it does seem to be going the same way as MO/AR.

NV: It's not trending Democratic as quickly as I thought, but I maintain that it's going to continue to be a tough state for Republicans. I don't think it's a viable state for Trump in 2020 unless he's popular. While he could do a bit better among Latinos there, I think his performance in the rural counties will weaken. If Republicans can hold on to one of the statewide races there in 2018, it's still a swing state. If they lose both the Senate and Gubernatorial race, it's probably close to being gone for them.
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