WV-SEN 2018: Haunted Manchin

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I'm not sure why people think Heitkamp is heavily favored but Manchin has no chance. I think he's much more entrenched and has more crossover appeal than Heitkamp, though Jenkins obviously won't be a pushover for him.

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I'm not sure why people think Heitkamp is heavily favored but Manchin has no chance. I think he's much more entrenched and has more crossover appeal than Heitkamp, though Jenkins obviously won't be a pushover for him.

I never said Manchin had no chance, but I believe his crossover appeal is seriously exaggerated. Whether people like it or not, he will be linked to the national Democratic Party and Chuck Schumer, and in a state like WV that won't help him. He has also cast some very questionable votes recently and Republican groups have a lot to attack him on. Tilt R for now, but of course Manchin could win. My point is that name recognition and crossover appeal didn't save Evan Bayh either.

See, everything you said is true of Heitkamp as well, but she isn't as entrenched as him. I don't get the Bayh comparison, either, since Bayh backed out of his Senate race in 2010, and then just jumped in at the last minute in 2016. Manchin is definitely vulnerable, and I'd rate this race a Toss-Up, but I think that he has the most crossover appeal of the red state Democrats, even if that doesn't end up being enough for him to win.

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I'm not sure why people think Heitkamp is heavily favored but Manchin has no chance. I think he's much more entrenched and has more crossover appeal than Heitkamp, though Jenkins obviously won't be a pushover for him.

I never said Manchin had no chance, but I believe his crossover appeal is seriously exaggerated. Whether people like it or not, he will be linked to the national Democratic Party and Chuck Schumer, and in a state like WV that won't help him. He has also cast some very questionable votes recently and Republican groups have a lot to attack him on. Tilt R for now, but of course Manchin could win. My point is that name recognition and crossover appeal didn't save Evan Bayh either.

See, everything you said is true of Heitkamp as well, but she isn't as entrenched as him. I don't get the Bayh comparison, either, since Bayh backed out of his Senate race in 2010, and then just jumped in at the last minute in 2016. Manchin is definitely vulnerable, and I'd rate this race a Toss-Up, but I think that he has the most crossover appeal of the red state Democrats, even if that doesn't end up being enough for him to win.

Bayh was supposedly unbeatable due to his moderate voting record and his previous elections which he won in a landslide. I mean, he was basically the de-facto incumbent in this race. You could be right about Heitkamp not being as entrenched as Manchin, but first we need to see a few polls before we know for sure whether that is the case or not - I guarantee you she's more popular than Manchin and will do better than McCaskill, Manchin and Donnelly election day. I'll eat crow if I'm wrong.

I didn't say that Manchin is unbeatable, just that he has the most potential for cross-over appeal, which is the only thing that gives him a fighting chance in WV. Also, keep in mind that most people thought Justice would lose last year because Democrats can't win statewide races in WV anymore. Well, you certainly don't shy away from bold predictions. You could end up being right, especially if Heitkamp gets a sub-par opponent, but if her opponent is competent, I definitely think that Manchin is more likely to win.

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I'm no fan of Manchin, especially since a lot of his votes are just a call for attention and a form of posturing to WV voters. I'll still take him and his shenanigans over a Republican who will stand with Trump no matter what, which is what we'll get if a Democrat other than Manchin runs in 2018.

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I still wouldn't be too surprised if Morrisey eked out a win, but yeah, Blankens*** is favored going in. And most Republicans (including McConnell) will support him, even if they do so begrudgingly. You see, he has this magical (R) next to his name which is kind of a big deal.

Moral of the story: Never assume people "wouldn't be THAT stupid", or they'll say "don't tell me how stupid I can be!"

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Either internals are very good or very bad. I'm gonna go with very good.

I'm gonna go with bad since it fits my narrative better.

Well, you gotta hand it to Bagel, at least he's honest about caring more about his "narrative" than actual evidence. That's more than most people will admit.

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I get that Manchin has to vote with Trump some of the time, but it's still pretty pathetic. He could've voted 'no' without changing the outcome, and still could have been able to point to many votes of his that could prove that he's not a die-hard liberal. The fact that he chose to cowardly play politics instead of showing dignity in a moment like this really doesn't speak well of him.

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An AtlasMatters internal just released finds that voters do not care what US Election Atlas voters say about Joe Manchin's chances in the West Virginia Senate race by a margin 92%. 93% reported not caring, 1% reported caring, and the remaining 6% were unsure or refused to answer. Polling questions were as follows:

1. Does it matter to you that two US Election Atlas posters believe that Joe Manchin will lose the West Virginia Senate race?

Yes - 1%
No - 93%
Unsure/Refused - 6%

2. Really? Renowned political scientist and US Election Atlas user Wulfric does care, and even made a thread about it. Does this change your opinion?

Yes - 0%
No - 95%
Unsure/Refused - 5%

3. Do you find US Election Atlas to be an important part of your daily life?

Yes - 4%
No - 89%
Unsure/Refused - 7%

4. Do posts on US Election Atlas influence your political views?
Yes - 1%
No - 94%
Unsure/Refused 5%

5. Do the views of smug elitist US Election Atlas user IceSpear make you more or less likely to vote Republican?
More Likely - 0%
Less Likely - 1%
Makes No Difference - 98%
Unsure/Refused - 1%

6. Does a US Election Atlas user referring to people from West Virginia as #populists make you feel proud or angry?
Proud - 1%
Angry - 1%
No Effect - 96%
Unsure/Refused - 2%