Washington state megathread

[Xing]

I think Sawant was able to successfully frame the 2019 election as a referendum on Amazon and big money (at least somewhat) and people who weren't big fans of her were willing to hold their nose and vote for her as a way of expressing discontent with the amount Amazon donated to the city council positions. I don't think this is going to work in her favor this time around, and the pro-Sawant crowd hasn't done themselves any favors with some of their more aggressive tactics. While calling it the "right-wing recall" may sway some people, I think people have had enough, and that she goes down by between 5 and 10%.

[Xing]

I think Sawant was able to successfully frame the 2019 election as a referendum on Amazon and big money (at least somewhat) and people who weren't big fans of her were willing to hold their nose and vote for her as a way of expressing discontent with the amount Amazon donated to the city council positions. I don't think this is going to work in her favor this time around, and the pro-Sawant crowd hasn't done themselves any favors with some of their more aggressive tactics. While calling it the "right-wing recall" may sway some people, I think people have had enough, and that she goes down by between 5 and 10%.

They were able to do so because it is the truth, the billionaires and other elite, but mainly the billionaires are the ones against her

https://mobile.twitter.com/Kshama_SC/status/1466069761805021189

This isn’t a matter of “tactics” dragging her down, indeed SAlt plays the game by an already biased rule set that I’ve explained here and in the third party thread beforehand, but of the core base of her support getting squeezed by the pandemic and it’s wider effects draining their livelihoods. A more exhausted and bankrupt group of supporters can’t chip in or do party work as well as what the elite class can pay with money and utilize already existing infrastructure—employer associations, lobbyists, the corporate media, even the government itself through setting the date separate from the rest of the election as a ploy to hope more transient and precarious people won’t show up to vote twice— to bring her down pound for pound.

I wasn't saying that it isn't true that Amazon poured tons of money into city council races in 2019, the point is that they did, and that Sawant was able to put the focus primarily on this, to get some voters who were lukewarm about her to support her. At this point, I don't believe that class is the driving factor in support for the recall. There are plenty of working class people here who are quite progressive, but want someone other than Sawant. I'm not saying that there isn't also big money behind recalling Sawant, but that doesn't mean that there aren't legitimate reasons to want a different progressive.

[Xing]

Looks like Sawant will survive, probably by about 2 points or so. I guess the argument that recalls are unnecessary really is quite effective.

[Xing]

Looks like Sawant will survive, probably by about 2 points or so. I guess the argument that recalls are unnecessary really is quite effective.

There's no way it's anywhere close to a 2% victory.  The margin is 250 votes now and that's only 0.6% in the recall's favor.  She would need to win 1,000 of the 1,200 remaining votes to get a 2% margin.

I suspect the "final" number we get tomorrow will be within about 40-50 votes either way.  She could get 58% and lose by 40.  She could get 62% and win by 40.  Even if she wins the remaining vote 2-1 she'll only have a 100 vote margin of victory (winning 50.1% to 49.9% in that very optimistic scenario for her).

The real story here is that there are 600 voters who have signature verification issues, so the next week is going to be a mad sprint by both campaigns to get as many friendly voters to verify their signatures as possible.  Then whoever loses will issue a fat stack of residency challenges to try and disqualify anyone from the opposing camp who didn't live in D3 (far more likely among Sawant voters, who were plucked off the street and handed print-out ballots) and we're going to have the losing campaign paying for a recount as well.

It's so close that we ultimately won't know who won for weeks.  The odds of one side pulling it out may become less and less likely depending on how the margin changes, but we can't be sure.  The only thing that's certain is that if Sawant wins by 40 votes she'll act like she won by 40% and PSOL will absolutely eat it up.

I thought that there were closer to 2,000 total ballots left to be counted, including the ones with signature challenges? Either way, I still expect the later ballots to be Sawant-friendly, though it's not impossible that they aren't.

[Xing]

Yeah, looks like this is over.

[Xing]

If Sawant is recalled, can she legally run for her position for the special election?

Yeah, looks like this is over.

It really isn’t.

I can’t imagine the remaining ballots not favoring Sawant or breaking roughly even.

[Xing]

Whatever, when she wins by a wider margin next time I’ll rub it in harder. When you prove that you are divorced from reality in your district I will rub it in harder. And, hopefully, when we see a sweep of Seattle positions by the Left, I will be high as a kite for days.

Given the only “community leaders” who oppose Sawant are middle managers for Amazon, petty businessmen, and landlords—when you have people that repulsive and vile on your side, of course you are going to lose again and again. Meanwhile, the lessons and actions implemented in this race will be worthwhile going forward for elected officeholders and those wanting to get elected of how to campaign and what to expect from their opponents. That’s not to underscore how effective a political operator Sawant is in taking down ALL of her political opponents

Since I want to maximize my fun, here’s some fun comments from the past that turned out dead wrong

I can see Sawant having a bumpy term and going down in flames, voters just wanted an incumbent out and they got something worse she will have a short political career. And this $15 minimum wage is just pandering by Murray he will balk at enacting it city-wide and just do it for public workers even if it makes the ballot it will fail.

Pulling a Joe Biden isn’t doable then, and it is going to be harder in not delivering now that there still is a major threat to their seats.

Fremont Brewing Owner Sara Nelson Joins Race for City Council: https://www.seattlemet.com/articles/2017/4/20/fremont-brewing-owner-sara-nelson-joins-race-for-city-council[/url

She’s listed concerns about the $15 minimum wage and paid family leave,

Pass.

Oh, so Xing was spouting complete lies then to delude himself in voting against a progressive.

Finally, while I cannot find the post, Deadflagblues made one in the line of him disliking the style of her politics over #populist Bernie Sanders. It should be noted that I can see SAlt continuing to exist and grow with Kshama Sawant once she leaves her seat on Seattle’s council, but Bernie shot himself in the foot too many times and his influence has dwindled since his presidential campaigns. The reason I can see clearly is that Sanders caved in too much into relying on the Democratic Party to elevate himself, that it would be easy to take over and that there would be plenty of allies to join to his side. SAlt’s entryism is dumb, but they are not that idealistic.

First of all, I couldn't vote in this election, since I don't live in D3. Second of all, I never denied that there are some issues in which I agree with her. It's her tactics that I can't fully get behind, as well as her constant desire to cause drama and grandstanding. What "lies" did I spout? When did I ever claim that Sawant is against a $15/hr minimum wage? Merely claiming that there are working class progressive voters who have other issues with her (that go beyond policy positions) isn't unsubstantiated. I've mostly discussed how members of my union feel, and I don't think another poster here is more qualified to report on that than I am. You can disagree with me without throwing out accusations like that.

[Xing]

It's primary day. Lots of interesting races. I'm watching the SoS race, WA-03 and WA-04, a bunch of King and SnoCo LD races, and several others. Predictions?

Best of luck in your race!

I’m sticking by my prediction that JHB and Peréz will make the top two in WA-03. I’m guessing Newhouse will get a spot in the top two in WA-04, though I’m not as sure whether Culp or White will get the other spot. The race in my legislative district could be interesting in November, since Gross and Valdez are all but guaranteed to make the top two today.

[Xing]

It’s possible but unlikely (I’d say) that Kent and Culp catch up. Unless the remaining dumps are significantly more friendly to them, they’re not going to gain enough to pull into second place.

RI, your performance is definitely admirable for a Republican in a strongly Democratic district. You could definitely make it a single-digit race. It’s yet to be seen if Republicans take note and see that your politics are more viable here than the likes of Culp, though.

[Xing]

Honestly, not too surprising. Governor Ferguson it is.

[Xing]

I’d say that Reichert will probably end up between 45 and 47% if he makes the top two. There’s still some goodwill left for him, but there’s also a clear limit to how many voters are really persuadable, and it takes a lot for Republicans to get close. If he tried to basically run as a moderate, he’d risk not making the top two due to not having enough of a base of support.

[Xing]

I actually now live in a jurisdiction in which I can vote in RI’s election. I moved too recently for my address change to be reflected in the primary, but it should apply to the November election.

[Xing]

I actually now live in a jurisdiction in which I can vote in RI’s election. I moved too recently for my address change to be reflected in the primary, but it should apply to the November election.

Are you gonna vote for him?

I’ll keep that to myself for now, at some point I’ll reveal how I vote.

[Xing]

It turns out that I didn’t update my address in time to be able to vote in RI’s election. I likely would have voted for him had I been able to change my address sooner (which I thought I had), and if it turns out that his race comes down to the wire, I’ll be kicking myself.