The UK General Election Prediction Thread

[andrew_c]

For Labour to be ahead on vote share but behind in seat count, it would need a lot of wasted vote from narrow losses in Scotland.

[andrew_c]

Vote Shares (GB only)

Conservatives - 34.5
Labour - 33.6
Liberal Democrats - 9.5
UKIP - 13.6
Greens - 3.8
Scottish/Welsh Nationalist - 4.9

Seats

Conservatives - 277
Labour - 269
Liberal Democrats - 30
UKIP - 5
Greens - 1
SNP- 47
Plaid- 2
Galloway- 1
Other- 18

Likely Government - LAB Minority

Scotland - Vote share and seats

Labour 25.9
SNP 48.6
Liberal Democrats 6.7
Conservative 11.3
Greens 3.5
UKIP 2.6
Others 1.4

Constituency winner (3 interesting seats per region and Nick Clegg's seat)

Gordon- SNP gain
Glasgow North- SNP gain
Stirling- SNP gain

Berwick Upon Tweed- CON gain
Stockton South - LAB gain
Redcar- LAB gain

Bury North- CON hold
Southport- LD hold
Heywood and Middleton- LAB hold

Rotherham- LAB hold
Colne Valley- LAB gain
Bradford West- Respect hold
Sheffield Hallam- LD hold

Boston and Skegness- UKIP gain
Broxtowe- LAB gain
Loughborough- LAB gain

Worcester- CON hold
Dudley South- CON hold
Warwickshire North- CON hold

Ynys Mon- LAB gain
Ceredigion- LD hold
Vale of Glamorgan- CON hold

Camborne and Redruth- CON hold
Bristol West- LAB gain
Wells- CON gain

Brighton Pavillion- GRN hold
Thanet South- UKIP gain
Rochester and Strood- UKIP hold

Kingston and Surbiton- LD hold
Battersea- CON hold
Enfield North- CON hold

Norwich South- LAB gain
Clacton- UKIP hold
Thurrock- UKIP gain