With about a month to go, my ratings are at this:
Democrats 48 (2 I/D)
Republicans 48
Toss-Ups 4
Here's where they started back in July 2015 (while I discussed/issued unofficial ratings for the races before this date, they were not officially rated as I did not have my google doc launched before July 2015):
Republicans 51
Democrats 47 (2 I/D)
Toss-Ups 2
A year and three months (or so) changes things. Republicans started this cycle with 51 seats leaning their way. But they squandered that early advantage and are now fighting tooth and nail to capture 3 of the 4 toss-ups and secure a real majority, 51-49.
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Here's the 5 races most worth your time among the non toss-ups, in no particular order:
1. Alaska - A recent poll shows Murkowski up only 8 points, with Libertarian Candidate Joe Miller in 2nd. While I still consider Murkowski the clear favorite, this could be a sleeper, especially if Hillary overperforms Generic D in the state. If Democratic Candidate Ray Metcalfe can be dragged up to 25% or so by Hillary coattails, there's a chance that Murkowski could be dragged down enough for Joe Miller to squeak by and become the first libertarian U.S. senator in our nation's history. That being said, Miller will caucus with the GOP, so the seat is Safe R either way.
2. Louisiana - While David Duke and Rob Maness are going nowhere, a D vs. D runoff remains a distinct possibility since many black voters remain undecided between Campbell and Fayard. If they split about even, watch out. The only way this race goes to the Dems if it's a D vs. R runoff is if one side or the other has a real majority (51-49 not counting the VP) already, and even then it would still be a pretty uphill fight.
3. Illinois - Tammy Duckworth appears to be ready to be the Mark Warner of the year. After not getting any non-internals for the race for many months, two polls come out, showing her at pathetic leads of 41%-36% and 41%-39%. If she's really as inevitable as people seem to think, she really shouldn't be polling in the low 40s. I see anything between a 1 point win and a 10 point win as perfectly realistic, and there is some room for Kirk to pull out a remarkable win.
4. Indiana - Evan Bayh seems to have something of an edge, but IN's no-robocalls law makes polling there hard to come by. Anything could happen on election night.
5. Missouri - Jason Kander is actually ahead of Roy Blunt if you believe a recent Emerson College Poll. While Kander is a B-lister, he's held up well despite a deluge of polished ads from the incumbent. With Koster potentially running away with the governors race, Kander could be pulled across the line with a row officer or two. Blunt's hopes lie in the fact that Trump remains well ahead in the state.
While Rubio isn't pulling away enough for Florida to be rated more than leaning toward him at this point in time, Dems are sending signals through funding that they are giving up on the race. The R's are going nowhere in Wisconsin and Colorado, and once-promising D candidates are collapsing in Ohio and Arizona.
