MO-SEN 2018: The Megathread

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Well, when you're the 2nd most endangered Senator in the country for your election cycle, you try literally everything - including all the things that worked last time.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Well, when you're the 2nd most endangered Senator in the country for your election cycle, you try literally everything - including all the things that worked last time.

Tester more safe?

Yes. He's 4th most vulnerable. Donnelly is 1st and Heitkamp is 3rd.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Well, when you're the 2nd most endangered Senator in the country for your election cycle, you try literally everything - including all the things that worked last time.

Tester more safe?

Yes. He's 4th most vulnerable. Donnelly is 1st and Heitkamp is 3rd.

Tester is safe. He has a stronger incumbency bonus (since he won twice).

Both of his wins were in Democratic wave years. Unless there is an unpopular republican as President, he's got quite a battle on his hands. It's Montana, not Virginia or Wisconsin.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

I think she's the most endangered. Hard to see her hanging on again unless it's a good Democratic year, or Republicans nominate a weak candidate.

What makes Donnelly less endangered? I'm aware he survived 2010, but his opponent was Walorski - not exactly the strongest specimen.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

I think she's the most endangered. Hard to see her hanging on again unless it's a good Democratic year, or Republicans nominate a weak candidate.

What makes Donnelly less endangered? I'm aware he survived 2010, but his opponent was Walorski - not exactly the strongest specimen.

May I inquire what's wrong with her? She's not a gaffe machine like the guy who Donnelly beat.

These posts from the thread on this year's Senate race explain things:

Walorski looks like Sarah Palin's feminist sister who is close actually has views on abortion that challenge Mourdock. It will be interesting if it's different coming from a woman. Could be slightly harder to attack but still far from safe.

Well, she is basically the Indiana version of Jan Brewer. It's not that she's THAT toxic, but the race would be quite competitive which it shouldn't be because Indiana. 

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Midterms usually go against the incumbent party; this has been true for a long time with the only recent exceptions being 1998 and 2002.

Yup, it took a terrorist attack and a President with huge popularity for the incumbent white house party to have their landslide in 2002. I mean, wow, gaining eight seats!! w00t! That was a huge landslide.

1998 was a democratic year under a democratic president without a terrorist attack. 1990 was a neutral year.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

http://redalertpolitics.com/2017/02/28/austin-petersen-optimistic-trump-may-run-senate-republican/#LmuKM7kpdLGVjWIV.99

Yes, that Austin Petersen. If he actually is the R nominee against McCaskill, I imagine she wins comfortably.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

He won't get the R nomination, but even if he does, McCaskill won't win "comfortably", lmao. Atlas believing that McCaskill is some titan who is heavily favored for reelection is truly one of the most ridiculous things I've seen on this forum.

You know I don't believe she's favored to win against generic R, I just think Petersen would be a poor opponent.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

I have a hard time seeing a dumbass, immature prick like Peterson winning against the graceful but also surprisingly cunning McCaskill. He should run for the House and be a douchebag there. That way the GOP can field a serious challenger and some of Peterson's decent views can still actually be heard.

He lives in Kansas City (i.e. Emanuel Cleaver's district). Running for the house isn't an option.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

If Kander runs, I will endorse him, as he is clearly the more electable candidate, and the current romney-state democrat senate seats must be kept D at all costs.

(In hindsight, I really shouldn't have endorsed Blunt for re-election.)

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Wagner vs. McCaskill would be a SAFE R race.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

"McCaskill fan club" is a phrase that makes me want to vomit, lol.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

"McCaskill fan club" is a phrase that makes me want to vomit, lol.

You endorsed McCaskill and she is moderate

You are aware of the recultance behind that, and if Kander changes his mind and jumps in, my endorsement flips to him on day one.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

McCaskill is moderate.

She was not like Sherrod Brown who immediately said no to Gorsuch. She gave it thought.  I did disagree with her final decision on that issue ftr.

And she is not trying to pander at all. I think Missouri voters will respond well to that. Voters do not like pandering.

Sherrod Brown did not come out against Gorsuch immediately, at least not completely. He was one of the "undecideds" on filibustering him for quite a while.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Wagner being nominated would have made the race Safe R, but it's still Likely R without her. If Hawley were to refuse also, then I would consider a change to Lean R, but all signs point to Hawley running.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

https://www.lgbtqnation.com/2017/07/missouri-republican-compares-transgender-people-isis/

Hartzler has shown off her transphobia.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Tombstone #22346: Senator Claire McCaskill

Born: January 3, 2007
Died: January 3, 2019

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

It's the fact that MO/AR/La which had Landrieu, Blanch Lincoln and McCaskill, are all gonna go red with 6 GOP senators. The states are polarized.  But, the polarization didn't happen in 2016 like it should have in OH, PA, and WI.

But, we will likely continue to see that trend continue, polarization of the states well into 2020 (CO and NC) and 2022, when Dems will likely see better gains.

Funny thing is, had 2016 gone slightly better for the Dems, Missouri and Indiana could've been represented by only Democrats in the Senate.

Bayh lost by 10%. 2016 would have needed to go A LOT better, not just a little, for him to win.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Hawley will announce his exploratory committee on Friday.

Great news! This is one of the most important races in the country, a Republican win here would be big.

AKA, drains her war chest by destroying Hawley's favorability numbers, drops out citing her breast cancer, and the party chooses Kander, who is still pretty well liked in the state, to run in her stead.

This isn't going to happen. First of all, McCaskill is going to face an avalanche of attack ads herself. Second, there is no indication that she is planning on stepping down AT ALL, in fact she seems fairly confident that she will win.

Even if Kander were to win the nomination, he'd have a harder time beating Hawley than Roy Blunt.

Cuz Trump being president doesn't matter right?

Uh, you realize this is Missouri we're talking about, right? Of course it doesn't.

News flash: he's definitely underwater in MO rn

Polls have shown Trump breaking even in Ohio, which he won by 10. In Missouri, he won by 19, so he's probably still above water.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Petersons getting a disproportionate amount of attention. He's a fourth placer at best.

He has a large socialist following and has raised a fair bit of money, he won't win if Hawley gets in but he's good for about 25% of the vote

Only people who are familiar with the libertarian party have a good idea of who he is.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

https://www.lgbtqnation.com/2017/07/missouri-republican-compares-transgender-people-isis/

Hartzler has shown off her transphobia.

Aren't you the one who constantly talked about how transgender people "may be" mentally ill?

Quote where I said that.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

In an unlikely race between McCaskill and Petersen, who would win?

This is the one scenario where McCaskill could realistically eek it out 49-47 or so. She'll lose to Hawley 44-51 or so, and would have been blanched against Wagner.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Would McCaskill lose even if 2018 is a very bad year for the GOP? I always thought Missouri was a red state, but not extremely red downballot like Oklahoma and Wyoming.

Most likely she'd still lose. Missouri voted a staggering 22 points to the nation's right in last year's presidential race, a huge R trend from '12, when it was 14 points to the right, and especially '08, when it was seven points to the right.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Would McCaskill lose even if 2018 is a very bad year for the GOP? I always thought Missouri was a red state, but not extremely red downballot like Oklahoma and Wyoming.

Most likely she'd still lose. Missouri voted a staggering 22 points to the nation's right in last year's presidential race, a huge R trend from '12, when it was 14 points to the right, and especially '08, when it was seven points to the right.

The presidential doesn't mean anything for this race. Missouri still has competitive races for statewide offices so long as the Democrat is competent. McCaskill definitely isn't incompetent.

Sure, if your definition of competitive is a republican winning by 7 or 8 points.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Was just about to post it but McCaskill probably gets between 35 and 39% of the vote.

This is unnecessarily pessismistic. She has the votes to break 40%, maybe even 45%. It's just that she doesn't have the votes to win unless Hawley has an Akin moment.