VT-GOV: Phil Scott in

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

http://m.sevendaysvt.com/OffMessage/archives/2015/09/08/scott-pins-gubernatorial-campaign-on-fiscal-responsibility

ENDORSED

Ratings Change - VT-GOV - Likely D ---> Toss-Up

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

IMO this governorship has a higher chance of flipping than WV if Scott wins the Republican nomination. It's a Toss-up right now.

More than West Virginia? I mean, the Republican candidate there is pretty meh and there's a billionaire on the Democratic side, but The Governor there only won by like 3-4 to a joke Businessman candidate. Plus, people have expected West Virginia to be a lot more Democratic than it has actually turned out to be in the last couple of years. I think West Virginia is a Lean R, if not a Likely R even.

I know it sounds crazy, but there is no evidence that suggests that Republicans are favored to pick up WV, aside from the "muh Republican trend" drivel.

What do you mean its drivel? The numbers clearly show the trend! The Governor there is not very popular, the candidates in the Democratic Party aren't especially promising - one is a billionaire who can really easily be painted as out of touch and crooked, the other an entrenched politico who probably won't win the primary anyway. If you look at polling right now - Cole already leads Kessler, and though Justice leads Cole at the moment, you look at the record for West Virginia polls as of late, and one thing is for sure - they overestimate Democratic performance. Big time. Combine that with a year where the Democratic candidate is obviously going to be clobbered in the Presidential race, and it's kind of hard to imagine either Justice or Kessler pulling it out.

This is mostly true, but I doubt that the Republican candidate will have any coattails. Romney destroyed Obama in WV, yet Democrats won the Senate race, the Governor race and every other statewide race except Attorney General (that's much better than what VA Republicans have "accomplished" in the past years). Is 2016 going to be more difficult for WV Dems? Of course. But is the race unwinnable for them? No. It's a Toss-up/tilt R at this point, whereas VT would be "tilt/leans R" with Scott. But that's just my opinion, y'all can feel free to disagree.

The reason why Manchin won by so much was because the republicans ran Raese again, who couldn't come close in 2010 (!). I can't speak for the other statewide offices, but for governor the fact is that Bill Maloney was a much weaker candidate than Cole is, and Maloney came pretty close to winning.

Yeah, it's possible that WV becomes like KY - Solid R for the senate but purple to purple-blue for state offices. But using 2012 to argue for why the race doesn't lean republicans falls flat pretty quickly.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Rothenberg should earn some sort of "Most Idiotic Predictor Award" for still having this race at Safe D.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Rothenberg should earn some sort of "Most Idiotic Predictor Award" for still having this race at Safe D.

Not surprising considering they also have IA listed as a Lean D state and NV as Likely D in 2016.

Agreed on IA.

As for NV - if Trump/Cruz/Carson is going to be the GOP Nominee, Nevada probably doesn't go for them because of its large hispanic population. And yeah, I think it's more likely than not that one of them will receive the nomination. So I can see where the rationale comes from there. But as there is still plenty of time for all three to falter, I think it's best to continue predicting based on a Clinton vs. Generic R scenario, in which NV is Toss-Up/Tilt D.