LA-Sen JMC Analyisis (Fleming Internal): Boustany and Campbell tied, Fleming 3rd

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

The bad news for Democrats is that Rob Maness and David Duke, who they could conceivably beat even if Senate Control depends on the runoff, are not getting any traction. The good news is they have a chance at locking out R's entirely. While I'm still carefully watching the state after last year's events, if this is a D vs. R runoff, it will likelier than not either decide Senate Control or decide whether the majority is real (51-49) or dependent on the support of the vice president, which means that R's should enjoy a very strong messaging advantage. The only way I see a D beating an R here is if one side or the other has already clinched 51 seats, and even then it might not be enough.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Ugh, looks like this race is a Tossup.

I hope Fleming just comes to his senses and drops out. It would be good for Republicans.

Tossuo? More like Likely R. Probably becomes near Safe R in a D vs R runoff, unless Duke or co. manages to pull through. I won't say completely safe because it's Louisiana.

There's a real chance of a D vs. D runoff happening here. Don't underestimate how incompetent the LA GOP is.

Well yeah, but Toss-Up means a 50% chance.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Ugh, looks like this race is a Tossup.

I hope Fleming just comes to his senses and drops out. It would be good for Republicans.

Tossuo? More like Likely R. Probably becomes near Safe R in a D vs R runoff, unless Duke or co. manages to pull through. I won't say completely safe because it's Louisiana.

There's a real chance of a D vs. D runoff happening here. Don't underestimate how incompetent the LA GOP is.

A real chance, sure, but I wouldn't call the race a tossup quite yet.

Both Democrats are very good campaigners, pretty moderate (like JBE), and overall good recruits. Duke would lose the runoff to either, Maness would be the underdog (unless it decides control, in which he'd be favored), and Fleming would keep it competitive. Kennedy or Boustany would make it Likely R.

Also keep in mind that the GOP sucks at winning open seats in red states. If Hoeven and Thune had retired this year, those states would be pure Tossups if not Lean D already.

I'm convinced that 2012 ND was the result of divine action.