MT-AL: Rob Quist (D) vs. Greg Gianforte (R) vs. Mark Wicks (L), May 25

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Was the meme that Gravis was the most accurate pollster of 2016 just that - a meme?

Yeah, that was a meme. The most accurate pollster in 2016 was Trafalgar, which has continued to be accurate in later surveys regarding the Louisiana Runoff and the SC-5 R primary runoff.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Gravis Crosstabs:
https://www.scribd.com/document/349161124/CROSSTABS-1

Hispanics approve of Trump 80%-18%, Asians 56%-44%, Others 63%-21%, but Whites only approve of him 47%-45%?!?

Gianforte is also leading among Hispanics 75%-19%, Asians 56%-44%, Others 59%-20%, but only 47%-38% among whites.

Also the gender gap is too big to be believed - Quist is ahead 47%-38% among Women, but Gianforte leads by 60% to 21% with men. Sorry, but a nearly fifty point gender gap is not realistic.


This poll ------> Trash

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Gravis polled five Hispanics and four of them were Republicans.

I'm aware this may not have been meant seriously, but the crosstabs indicate that 2% of Hispanics are undecided on Trump - disapproval is at 18% and approval is at 80%. To get those numbers they would have needed to survey 50 Hispanics or more.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Why the heck is this on a Thursday again?

Because that's what Bullock chose.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Until we see video indicating otherwise, I will assume it was not intentional. Still, an unfortunate event, especially so close to the election.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

With the details regarding Jacobs condition and Gianforte being arrested, I retract my previous statement and my endorsement of Gianforte. This is a despicable, sinful, and unignorable incident. I endorse Libertarian Candidate Mark Wicks for this election.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Guardian Article: https://amp.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/may/24/greg-gianforte-bodyslams-reporter-ben-jacobs-montana

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Any Montana voters on Atlas, please consider this incident very carefully when voting. If you vote for Gianforte, you are endorsing this incident and saying it is a good thing. Vote for Wicks, or heck, even Quist, instead.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Any Montana voters on Atlas, please consider this incident very carefully when voting. If you vote for Gianforte, you are endorsing this incident and saying it is a good thing. Vote for Wicks, or heck, even Quist, instead.

Even a Socialist^TM?

Given this, yeah. If this was an AV election, I would vote:

1. Wicks
2. Quist
3. Gianforte

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

The OP should change the topic subject to the subject listed at the top of this post.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Guys, please stay on topic. Arguing which side is more violent is pointless and frankly an argument no one wins anyway.

Maybe lock this until the morning so people can calm down for a while?

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

I will be referring to Gianforte as "Assaulterforte" while reporting results tomorrow, and I suggest the rest of you do the same.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Well, it's official now. Assaulterforte is a criminal, and anyone who votes for him is endorsing criminal activity.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

DCCC ad ready to go for tomorrow. Simple, but effective.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v1ZK1s7gNxI&feature=youtu.be

That was quick.

Well, they didn't have to do a lot of editing. Funny how much more straightforward it is than basically every other political ad in existence, because it doesn't have to fool the viewer with the usual tricks.

It is also seems smart to say "Go. Vote. Against. Him." - which implicitly allows for Republicans to vote for the Libertarian if they can't bring themselves to vote for a Democrat.

It does say "Vote for Rob Quist" right after that though.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Also, as someone else in IRC pointed out (forgive me; I forget who), this means that Gianforte will likely not run for Governor in 2020, meaning that Fox will probably do so rather than run against Tester. It's astonishing how one man's absolutely f-cking stupid actions will affect this entire state in the future.

Marc Raicicot could run against Tester then.

Can Montana actually afford to have a second special election? That was the big deal behind the mail in only ballot measure. If counties are in this serious of financial trouble,and Gianforte resigns(after winning the election) wouldn't Montana just let the seat remain vacant until '18?

Under state law, a special election has to be called for a date within 85-100 days of the vacancy beginning to exist. So if Assaulterforte were to resign on say, June 10th, a special election would have to happen between September 3 and September 18, inclusive.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Steve Daines throws GF under the bus....or more correctly, doesn't tries to save him after the suicide jump.



https://twitter.com/SteveDaines/status/867752083021340673

He's getting slammed in the replies for this weaksauce statement. If the senator is reading this, I remind him that anyone who continues to support Gianforte is saying that assault is a good and honorable thing.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

If Louie Gohmert, Trent Franks, or Paul Ryan would still vote for Gianforte, then they are saying that assault is a good and honorable thing. Any montanan who votes for Gianforte today is saying the same. Enough said.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

If Louie Gohmert, Trent Franks, or Paul Ryan would still vote for Gianforte, then they are saying that assault is a good and honorable thing. Any montanan who votes for Gianforte today is saying the same. Enough said.

What about those who voted for him before this happened?

Impossible to know unless they state they would still vote for him if they were voting today, or encourage others to vote for him, both of which would constitute saying assault is a good and honorable thing.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Constitutional issue was settled in McCormack v. Powell. I still think GG wins.

But I think they could seat him and then expel him afterwards if convicted, correct?

Yes:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2010/12/how-to-get-kicked-out-of-congress/67462/

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

when not destroying american's HC sys, mark sanford makes sense.

This is not a statement, it's a bunch of confusing gibberish.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

I'm not sure how Jeff Roe could possibly know this, but he says:

Jeff Roe‏ @jeffroe  18m18 minutes ago
#MTAL 65% of votes are in and it looks to be about 50%'ish @RobQuistforMT 40%'ish @GregForMontana and 10% indie or no vote history to tell.

Jeff Roe‏ @jeffroe  13m13 minutes ago
#MTAL means roughly @GregForMontana needs to get around 58% of Election Day vote to win. Assuming 400K total votes. 259K are already cast.

Jeff Roe‏ @jeffroe  12m12 minutes ago
#MTAL roughly 8,801 or 6.3% of Election Day voters have to flip (no pun) to Quist. Not vote indie or just not vote but vote Quist.

Jeff Roe‏ @jeffroe  3m3 minutes ago
#MTAL in other words 17,601 @GregForMontana voters need to NOT go vote in order to elect @RobQuistforMT

Wicks did not get 10% of the early vote, sorry.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Yeah, this is all about reducing Gianforte's margin on election day now for Quist. But it is worth pointing out that just because this pattern occurred in past elections, that doesn't mean things can't get odd this time around. For example, in 2016 Gianforte took a 2000-vote lead or so with 85%-90% of precincts reporting, and at that point I thought that he had a good chance of winning due to the usual reporting pattern being replicated. And what happened? The last 10-15% came in, and Bullock actually took the lead and won by 4 in the end. (This didn't happen in the 2006 and 2012 Senate race, btw). So while it is true that the early returns/the first big vote dump almost always favor Democrats (like I said, Bullock was up 13 points with 30% of the vote in in 2016), last year the last returns were very Democratic-friendly as well. Maybe this was just a one-time thing, who knows.

Just watch the county by county results and don't overreact to early returns. It's probably the best to wait until at least 70% of the vote is in (if not more than that) before making a projection, even if it "looks" like there is a winner early on.

I will not make a projection, regardless of who leads, until we have sufficient returns from Yellowstone, Flathead, Lewis and Clark, and Missoula to know with confidence the final margins in those key counties.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Wow and I thought I was a partisan hack for thinking Rauner can win reelection.

Uh, I wasn't being serious.

Anyway, when will the link to the NY Times results page be available?

At some point within the next 7 hours or so.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Quist was never going to win. MT went for Trump by 20 points. It's one of those states that still likes to pretend it's open minded but PF just destroyed to liberal New Jersey narrative by expressing his contempt for a liberal eastern professional. Expect him in the senate one day.

Montana is a swing state for non presidential elections. They've elected Tester, Bullock, Baucus, Schweitzer, etc. Trump's 20 point win is meaningless in terms of helpfulness to forecast this race.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

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Why 10:25 and not 10:00?

They could come in at 10:00, NYT is using an estimate based on when the vote actually started to come in in past elections.