VA-GOV 2017: Utter Panic and Doom (General election: Nov 7th)

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Obama is coming to Richmond!

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Obama was at it for Bruce Failey, Anthony Brown [another harmless, moderate Lt. Gov who was supposed to walk-in], and lastly, Hillary Clinton....not a good record. Pretty obvious he can't transfer the juju.

To be fair, Northam appears to be a much better candidate than the aforementioned.

Obama's rally with Hassan arguably got her over the line.

That race was so close you could literally blame the outcome on anything you like.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Monmouth will release a new poll of this race tomorrow.

Com'on Monmouth, show a Gillespie lead!

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Monmouth will release a new poll of this race tomorrow.

Com'on Monmouth, show a Gillespie lead!

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=K5d5jxJ5vbM

Oh, please. I know you're disappointed that I don't support Northam, but if you seriously think a random YouTube video is going the change the way I think.....

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Every election ever in the history of forever.

Wulfric: I support the Democrat

Democrat: *somehing supportive of abortion*

Wulfric: I support the Republican.

Uh, how do you explain my endorsement of Doug Jones for Senate then? (Sure, I criticized him over what he said about Abortion, but I'm still endorsing him in that race.) Or how about the fact that I endorsed a total of 12 pro-choice democrats in the 2016 senate elections, and 6 pro-choice democrats in the 2016 gubernatorial races? Or how about the fact that I endorsed Gillespie early on in this race, before #MelloGate ever happened?

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

That's my Monmouth!

I get that it's only one poll though. The good thing about three polls being released today, though, is that it gets that stupid Washington Post Poll out of the 5 poll average. The 5-poll average is now Northam +4.2 . I still think this is Lean Northam, but I'll move it back to Toss-Up if the average goes below Northam +3.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

If Northam loses this, it'll be because Gillespie excited racists while Northam excited nobody.

What has Gillespie done to get racists excited?

The MS-13 stuff can be viewed as racist.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Dems losing this governorship would hopefully force them go through a lot of soul-searching to remake the party. So far they've mostly avoided this by blaming 2016 on Comey and Russia, which, regardless of its validity, is like the republicans blaming Sandy for 2012. MAYBE things would have worked out without those components, but what should be focused on is the elements that allowed the race to get to the point where small external factors decided the outcome.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

49 R - 37 D primary voting history split? JUNK POLL! The June primaries had a 60 D - 40 R split.

The general election turnout is not going to be D+20, sorry.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

49 R - 37 D primary voting history split? JUNK POLL! The June primaries had a 60 D - 40 R split.

The general election turnout is not going to be D+20, sorry.

That is far from the point I was making, but you're Wulfric, so I'm not gonna even bother spelling it out.

Well, when you simply list the turnout difference and then say Junk Poll, the only reasonable interpretation of your post is you expect a D+20 Turnout. I'm sorry, I can't read your mind.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Dems losing this governorship would hopefully force them go through a lot of soul-searching to remake the party. So far they've mostly avoided this by blaming 2016 on Comey and Russia, which, regardless of its validity, is like the republicans blaming Sandy for 2012. MAYBE things would have worked out without those components, but what should be focused on is the elements that allowed the race to get to the point where small external factors decided the outcome.

Your normalcy bias is why our politics are so screwed up. Go look at the ads Gillespie is running and your biggest takeaway is the Dems need to do soul-searching.

 

Outside of particularly egregious cases, I don't rescind endorsements based solely on problematic ad tactics. For every GOP ad that could be viewed as unethical, there is a DEM ad that could be viewed as unethical.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

At this point, all I can say for certain is this: the race won't be called until several hours after the polls close. Gillespie will likely take an early lead as the results start to pour in and hold on to that lead for hours, but as the percentage of precincts reporting approaches 100, Northam will chip away at Gillespie's lead until such time the race is officially called.

It's important to remember to totally tune out whatever the garbage statewide total is telling you for most of the night and just look at whatever's coming in from NoVA and Richmond/Henrico/Norfolk, until about 80% of the statewide total is in.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Dems worried about black disengagement, particularly those under 40.

Great News for Gillespie, though ideally blacks would come out and actually vote for Gillespie rather than abstaining.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Wait, Wulfric supports Gillespie? That's fucking gold.

Endorsed him months ago

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Over on the house of delegates side, Sabato has released a map of the competitive seats:





The Safe R seats are 47 in number, and the Safe D seats are 31 in number. Thus, 22 seats are competitive. The dems are clearly on a narrow path in terms of taking back the HoD, but it's not impossible.

http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/underneath-it-all-elections-for-the-virginia-house-of-delegates/

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

LOL at there being D-held seats in the Swampburbs that are "competitive."

Sabato is using competitive as a universal classification covering Likely, Lean, and Toss-Up. You'll notice that the three Dem seats Sabato has as competitive aren't marked Safe on DDHQs map either.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

LOL at there being D-held seats in the Swampburbs that are "competitive."

Sabato is using competitive as a universal classification covering Likely, Lean, and Toss-Up. You'll notice that the three Dem seats Sabato has as competitive aren't marked Safe on DDHQs map either.

Minus HD-34

I see that now. Mixed up that and 32, LOL.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

^ It's marked as competitive based on the close result last time.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

So, totaling up the seats that are universally agreed to be Safe for the incumbent party, we have 41 Safe R seats and 31 Safe D seats. 51 seats are needed for a majority.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Gillespie is now running ads on radio stations like 100.3 Big 100 a classic rock station out of MD that has reach in DC and NoVA all the way down to Fredericksburg and below. I heard it this morning driving to work and it went something like "Northam believes that $17,000 is rich and that's why he's never voted for any tax cut. I'm Ed Gillespie and I believe that tax cuts will grow Virginia's economy and will provide more money for education and give our teachers a needed pay raise."

He is pivoting to the center to hook NoVA voters. I don't think many will switch their votes based off of this alone, but it will stick in the minds of many undecideds, especially if they vote on economics. Gillespie is trying his best to make Ralph Northam look like a tax increase lover and friend of gangs. It's shameful but it might stick.

He botched this campaign, it seems, by focusing on Confederate statues and illegal immigration much more than necessary in a Virginia election.

Found the video ad of the radio one I heard this morning: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=10NdvbPVaE8

Typical consultant maneuver that all of his videos have comments disabled.

Disabling comments is pretty standard protocol for all campaign ads.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

A Trump rally wouldn't help Gllespie.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

If it works, it works. But I'm worried "child molesters" is too much of a shock for people to believe, and thus will actually hurt Gillespie.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

If it works, it works. But I'm worried "child molesters" is too much of a shock for people to believe, and thus will actually hurt Gillespie.

ALL ATLAS MEMBERS ARE DUTY AND HONOR BOUND TO START "WULFRIC SUPPORTS CHILD MOLESTERS" THREADS

Whatever. If Northam ran an ad calling Gllespie a rapist none of you would criticize it.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

^ There's a reason for that. It's not as if Trump went around hypnotizing people into blindly following whatever he says. Instead, he tapped into a constituency that had existed during the Obama years, but had been ignored by the republican establishment because they felt their path to victory was winning back the suburbs that voted for Bush in 2004, and had thus stayed home or even voted Democrat in disgust. Trump went after it because it perfectly reflects his views on key issues such as immigration and trade, and they don't reject him because of his gaffes and scandals because they don't agree that such things are gaffes/scandals. But it doesn't mean that Trump has some sort of Kim Jong Un-like worship where he can never be wrong - his base has shown itself to be ready and willing to show him when they believe he is wrong. They did it in Alabama by rejecting Luther Strange, and they may do it in Virginia by staying home or voting Hyra.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

There's several reasons I support Gillespie.

Northam is too liberal on Climate/Energy Issues

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His supposed support for rural Virginia is revealed for the sham it is when a fairly superficial read through his website makes it clear that he is anti-coal.

Northam is too liberal on Guns

He has indicated support for not only an assault weapons ban, but also limits on size of gun clips, and likely would support a limit on size of gun magazines as well.

Northam is too liberal on Abortion

I think his 100% rating with Planned Parenthood and NARAL speaks for itself here.

While Gillespie has dabbed in Trumpism, he is still an establishment republican and his win would still show that non-Trumpist Rs can win in key states

Going to be perfectly honest here, I just really want to see a Republican win Virginia one last time before it joins the solid D northeast

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Flawless, Beautiful Marco Rubio and Susana Martinez will be campaigning for Gillespie!!!

https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/virginia-politics/marco-rubio-susana-martinez-to-rally-for-ed-gillespie-in-northern-virginia/2017/10/24/1e86c4aa-b8d6-11e7-a908-a3470754bbb9_story.html