French Legislative Election 2017

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First results are in line with the Ipsos projection

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Valls reelected

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For Valls the result is just for his home-town, not the entire constituency. Still not declared.

(So keep hope alive)

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Collard reelected with 50.16%

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Apparently there are rumors (Le Monde) that Valls could be the next President of the Assembly... Ô_o

Absurd rumors obviously.

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What will happen to LR will be interesting. The party could split in two between a pro-Macron party and an opposition party.

(Also that means that the presidential majority is larger than just LREM/MoDem, with some in PS and LR)

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Ipsos projection update

LREM: 311
MoDem: 44

LR: 104
UDI-DVD: 24

PS: 33
PRG-DVG: 15

FI: 18
PCF: 10

FN: 8

Others: 10

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Vallaud-Belkacem is apparently defeated. (At least the LREM claims victory)

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New Ipsos projection

LREM/MoDem now at 361 seats.

Elabe is also at 355-365 seats for LREM (in their case, I believe that it's the first time that a media projection in France is that wrong).

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NKM is apparently defeated in Paris

(48 polling stations in, out of 54)
54% for LREM, 46% for LR

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Recounts in some polling stations in Valls' constituency

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Valls re-elected with 51.7%

I believe this is just for Evry, Valls' hometown, not the entire constituency.

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Valls claims victory

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Around 40 right-wing MPs (more than 20 LR, 18 UDI) will form their own group "les constructifs" in the National Assembly.

In the Senate some senators try to form an LREM group, but LR senators pro-Macron won't apparently secede from their group, but will form an "Les constructifs" movement inside the LR group. (Also half of the Senate will be renew next September).

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Maybe a 8th parliamentary group, some DVG want to create a progressive group on the left, in support of the presidential majority. For now they don't have the required 15 deputies.

The key for them is PS deputies. The national instance of PS has decided to be in the opposition, so no vote in favor of the government (PS deputies have a choice between no-confidence vote or abstain).
But some PS deputies could vote in favor of the government, and as you could expect the leftist part of the party will want them expelled of PS, if that's the case maybe they could join the DVG in their attempt to form a group.
It's said that a third of PS deputies could vote for in favor of the government (another third in abstention, a final third in a no-confidance vote).

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Maybe a 8th parliamentary group, some DVG want to create a progressive group on the left, in support of the presidential majority. For now they don't have the required 15 deputies.

Do we know who the MPs are? I assume Valls and who else?

Apparently Falorni (DVG) has said that they have around 20 deputies now: Valls, the PRG, others DVG and apparently some right-wing Radicaux.

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Special election in Guyana-2nd today

LREM: 43.1%
FI: 35.1%
DVG: 10,1%
DVG: 2,2%
LREM diss: 2 %
FN: 1,8%
UPR: 0,8%

LREM improves his score by 7pts, FI by 15pts (but the left is at 47.2% against 57.4 in 2017)
Turnout is also better than in 2017 (around 35% against 26% in 2017)

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Also they were various incidents at some polling stations in Mayotte yesterday (for example 2 ballot boxes stolen, ...) I think the gap in the first round between the 2nd and the 3rd is large enough to be sure of the result, but if this kind of incidents happen during the second round (which will probably be close) then the Constitutional council could cancel the election again.