Updated CNN GOP debate average + why it may be the same 10 people+Fiorina

[The Other Castro]

Any chance CNN changes their rules to shorten the time-frame of poll inclusion (get rid of all pre-debate polls)? Only Christie and Kasich would probably care, and it would probably not look as bad as keeping an obviously higher than 11th place candidate out of the debate.

[The Other Castro]

Her only chance might be if Kentucky sticks with a primary and Paul drops out before the next debate, since he'd be dropping out before Iowa anyway. Unlikely, but not impossible.

[The Other Castro]

Maybe The Donald will sit out the CNN debate after they refuse to pay to the charities he likes, creating a spot for Fiorina.

[The Other Castro]

In case anyone is wondering about the specifics, the qualifying polls are: ABC/The Washington Post, Bloomberg, CBS/The New York Times, CNN, FOX, Gallup, Marist, McClatchy, Monmouth University, NBC/The Wall Street Journal, Pew, Quinnipiac, USA Today, and Time.

Since July 16th, we've had:
FOX - July 16th
ABC/WashPo
CNN
Quinnipiac
NBC/WSJ
CBS
Bloomberg
Monmouth
FOX
FOX
CNN - August 18th

[The Other Castro]

In the final two weeks before the Fox polling cutoff, there were 7 qualifying polls. That should give us a rough idea of what to expect. Gilmore needs at least 1% in two of those to be invited.

[The Other Castro]

Are they thinking of changing the rules?

http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2015/sep/1/cnn-unveil-changes-criteria-next-gop-debate/

[The Other Castro]

Barring some very abnormal polling over the next week, Fiorina is now as good as in.

[The Other Castro]

So, does that mean that Fiorina is in the debate now?

Almost definitely yes.