The Other Castro
Castro2020
Atlas Icon
Posts: 11,230
|
 |
« on: August 23, 2016, 06:35:12 PM » |
|
|
« edited: August 23, 2016, 06:41:57 PM by Castro »
|
Between theories of Silent Majorities, Shy-Trump voters, under-representation of Hispanics/Latinos, and ground game strength, there is a possibility that the polling average does not line up with the end result. If the RCP polling average on Election Day showed, for example, Clinton +6, by how much do you think she or Trump would outperform the polling average?
Bonus Question: Mention any specific states where you think either candidate will beat polling expectations and by how much.
For reference, Obama outperformed the RCP average by 3.2 in 2012, fell behind by 0.3 in 2008, and Bush outperformed by 0.9 in 2004.
|
Poll
