The absentee/early vote thread

[The Other Castro]

More and more new voters that would tend to vote Democratic are registering as Unaffiliated it seems, throwing a big wrench into pure comparisons to 2012. This is probably why Clinton is leading in polls of early voters by more than we would expect based on strictly just the D v.s. R EV numbers.

[The Other Castro]

Jon Ralston ‏@RalstonReports  3m3 minutes ago
Dems added 2,800 to Clark lead on low turnout day Sunday (26,500), just under what they added on same day in '12. Firewall now nearly 47K.

Jon Ralston ‏@RalstonReports  21s21 seconds ago
So that was some Trump Bump the GOP got in early voting from his Vegas visit Sunday -- i.e. essentially none.


Tom Bonier ‏@tbonier  2m2 minutes ago
OH: Big Dem surge Sat/Sun. Franklin vote only 0.9% behind '12 (was 6.7% Oct 20) and Cuyahoga is 1.9% down on '12 (was '4.9%) #comeyeffect

[The Other Castro]

Yep, nothing to do with weekend turnout, just James Comey sending dems out, seems legit

Oh I thought he was just joking in light of people saying how Comey would depress turnout, when that seems to not be the case.

[The Other Castro]

Wow, everything IS bigger in Texas.

[The Other Castro]

Michael McDonald ‏@ElectProject  5m5 minutes ago
NC Dems continue to make up lost ground for the week of poll closures (now -3.4% from 2012), Reps continue to over-perform (+7.9%)

[The Other Castro]

Also based on NYT's NC early vote tracker/model, they think 3rd parties are going to beat Trump among black voters 4% to 3%.

[The Other Castro]

Michael McDonald ‏@ElectProject  23m23 minutes ago
North Carolina demographic characteristics of unaffiliated (no party reg) #earlyvote (as of 10/30)

[The Other Castro]

Jon Ralston ‏@RalstonReports  18m18 minutes ago
NV early voting blog updated:
Statewide Dem lead: 34K
Clark Dem lead: 47K
Washoe Dem lead: 2.5K
Rural GOP lead: 15K

[The Other Castro]

NC #souls2polls 41,974 in-person #earlyvote Sun, +6,010 in 2012, 31.9% Black, 48.7% Dem. 36.0% Black, 53.7% Dem in 2012 -> more Whites voted

It was a little confusing so he clarified:
Michael McDonald ‏@ElectProject  40s40 seconds ago
NC #souls2polls 2016 Sunday: 24,008 Whites voted or 57.2%, +4,134 vs 2012 when 55.3% voted. Rep 24.6% in 2016 vs Rep 24.0% in 2012

[The Other Castro]

NC #souls2polls 41,974 in-person #earlyvote Sun, +6,010 in 2012, 31.9% Black, 48.7% Dem. 36.0% Black, 53.7% Dem in 2012 -> more Whites voted

It was a little confusing so he clarified:
Michael McDonald ‏@ElectProject  40s40 seconds ago
NC #souls2polls 2016 Sunday: 24,008 Whites voted or 57.2%, +4,134 vs 2012 when 55.3% voted. Rep 24.6% in 2016 vs Rep 24.0% in 2012

Michael McDonald ‏@ElectProject  1m1 minute ago
NC #souls2polls 2016 Sunday: real action among unaffiliated. 11,067 voted or 26.4%, +3,147 vs 2012 when 22.0% voted

[The Other Castro]

According to electproject.org, Louisiana has broken past 100% of its 2012 early voting numbers, and Minnesota will as well as soon as it updates.

In total, we're about 48.7% of the total 2012 EV.

[The Other Castro]

If Nevada really is out, Trump needs to win Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, or Colorado. Not happening.

[The Other Castro]

Taniel ‏@Taniel  30s31 seconds ago
27% of all Colorado voters have now returned their ballots—& in this equally divided state, registered Dems have a 3.6% edge among voters.

Taniel ‏@Taniel  1m1 minute ago
Colorado's turnout rate so far (via @NickRiccardi's raw #s):
—among registered Dems: 33%
—among registered Reps: 30%
—among others: just 20%

[The Other Castro]

CO #earlyvote update: trick or treat for Reps:
Treat: Dem lead +3.6 points (was 3.9 on Fri)
Trick: 3,562 more Dems returned ballots

Wow, McDonald is a complete idiot. His post election tweet would be something like this. Trick or treat for republicans. Treat: Trump wins presidency. Trick: There were some votes cast for Clinton. I'm joking, but this tweet for so partisan.

it's a Halloween joke. Standard good news bad news update. Also McDonald is one of the leading sources of early vote information.

[The Other Castro]

Maine looks pretty good:

[The Other Castro]

Jon Ralston ‏@RalstonReports  18m18 minutes ago
20,500 had voted by 3 PM. Going to be relatively low turnout, but not as low as Sunday. Outside chance to get to 30,000.


Steve Schale ‏@steveschale  17m17 minutes ago Tallahassee, FL
Not biggest story in FL, but Dems cut GOP lead in #Duuuval from 1.6 to 1.5% today. Why's that important? Trump needs blow out numbers there.

[The Other Castro]

Barring huge events, there is a tendency for a natural PV lead range to develop over the course of an election. As seen in that 2012 Obama internal polling chart, this lead range probably won't deviate by more than 2 points in a given direction. My belief is that this race has the natural tendency of a 4-6 point lead for Clinton. In good news cycles, it's gone to 6-8 (with the expected polls sometimes in double digits). In bad news cycles, it's gone to 2-4 (with the expected polls sometimes tied).

[The Other Castro]

Jon Ralston ‏@RalstonReports  20m20 minutes ago
Jon Ralston Retweeted Bradley Tallent
Today likely to be another bad day for Dems relative to rest. They usually do very well Wed-Fri. of second week, and last day usually big.

Also, Ralston says he'll make a definitive prediction on Sunday about Nevada.

[The Other Castro]

Nate Cohn and Dave Wasserman are getting into a little bit of a spat over black voter share in NC:

Greg Sargent ‏@ThePlumLineGS
Here @Nate_Cohn and the @UpshotNYT project Clinton winning NC by 6, based on early voting and their polling:

Nate Cohn ‏@Nate_Cohn Nate Cohn Retweeted Greg Sargent
Key is that it's based on a poll that had Clinton up 7. If race tightened/or poll too D, these estimates will be too

Dave Wasserman ‏@Redistrict Dave Wasserman Retweeted Nate Cohn
If AA's drop 3-4% as share of NC electorate (we don't know yet), I have hard time believing HRC will make that up among college whites.

Nate Cohn ‏@Nate_Cohn Nate Cohn Retweeted Dave Wasserman
Sorry, but it's just not realistic to suggest that black voters could fall to 19% of the NC electorate.

Nate Cohn ‏@Nate_Cohn  8m8 minutes ago Washington, DC
Black, non-Hispanic share of actual and registered voters in North Carolina since 2004 cc: @Redistrict

[The Other Castro]

Mark Murray ‏@mmurraypolitics  2m2 minutes ago
Comparing 2012 vs. 2016 in early vote by party affiliation -- one week out before election, via NBC/TargetSmart

[The Other Castro]

Jon Ralston ‏@RalstonReports  3m3 minutes ago
Turnout going to be low today in Clark, but maybe better than Mon. 5,600 had voted by 11. Was 4,500 on Mon. I bet Dems are nervous.

[The Other Castro]

Over 27 Million people have now voted, according to electproject.org

[The Other Castro]

Oct. 30, 2012—13,519,140 votes had been cast 1 week till Election Day

Nov. 1, 2016—26,236,246 votes have been cast 1 week till Election Day




"One Week Before Election Day, Early Voting Is Nearly Twice as High as 2012"

http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/first-read/fbi-2016-election-confidence-deficit-n676171

Wait so over 32 million ballots were cast in the last week of 2012? That seems super high.

[The Other Castro]

TargetSmart ‏@_TargetSmart  5m5 minutes ago
In '12, Hispanic voters accounted for roughly 10% of the early vote one week ahead of the election. This year, 14%. http://www.nbcnews.com/card/hispanics-make-greater-share-florida-early-vote-2016-n676486?cid=eml_onsite …

Now that is great news for Clinton! I can't see her lose the state if Hispanics are up that much.

Hispanic voters aren't as partisan Democrat as black voters.

They're still getting pretty partisan this cycle, if Latino-specific polls are to be believed.

[The Other Castro]

Jon Ralston ‏@RalstonReports  32s32 seconds ago
29,000 had voted by 6 PM. Same as Monday. And that was a bad day for Dems. Just sayin'