Eternal Sunshine of the Democratic Mind

[The Other Castro]

Eternal Sunshine of the Democratic Mind

Kirsten

November 9th, 2016

The Junior Senator from New York stared up at the television screen. Like many Democrats that night, she was in shock. Agony. Confusion. However, unlike many Democrats that night, she also sensed something quite different: Opportunity. Trump’s victory looked right back at her mockingly, but she had already moved on in her mind to the future.

She knew just as well as anyone that the 2020 Presidential race had already begun. Any minute not spent planning her run was now a minute wasted, and falling behind her potential competitors. Kirsten Gillibrand intently picked up her phone and dialed one of her closest allies. After two rings, Howard Dean answered the call.

[The Other Castro]

Thanks, this will be similar to a previous TL I wrote in that most of the updates will be in the form of POV chapters from players (though not necessarily candidates) in the 2020 election. I'm open to suggestions of characters or events throughout this as I take it through the midterms and eventually the 2020 presidential race.

[The Other Castro]

This PoV form is very intriguing. Could you link your previous TL?

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=217403.0

I didn't take it very far, but I plan to continue this one for some time.

[The Other Castro]

Bernie

November 10th, 2016

“I’ll be almost 80, are you serious Jeff?”

“Trump will be only a few years younger than you, and you’re in great shape. We both know you could have easily beaten him this year if the DNC hadn’t been in the bag for Clinton. At least give it some thought, you have some time to think about this after all.”

Bernie Sanders, along with his Democratic colleagues, had gone through the stages of grief and was now dealing with the ramifications of a Trump presidency. With the question of how to get rid of him, everyone’s minds immediately turned to the question of which Democrat would have the best chance of winning. The tides were turning in the Democratic Party, and with Trump’s victory came the possibility of change. In Bernie’s mind, from the ashes they would be reborn, and the party would finally start listening to him and follow his lead.

“I’ll think about it, but for now let’s try to keep this under wraps. This party needs new leadership if it has any hopes of succeeding in the future.” After a few moments, he added, “I want to speak to Elizabeth.”

[The Other Castro]

Martin

November 11th, 2016

Martin’s staffer pressed the post button as Martin looked over his shoulder, wondering if this was the right move. He knew that he came across as bland, boring even, but he also knew in his heart of hearts that he could have defeated Trump. DNC Chair was a long shot with big names already lining up behind Keith Ellison, but he had to keep his name in the mix any way he could now that he was out of office.

What do I do next? Martin O’Malley thought to himself. His aides were blunt with him after his loss in the Iowa Caucus. Lack of charisma, they said. Too much power already behind Hillary and Bernie, they said. Well, 2020 would be a wide open race, and he had just as good of a shot as anyone, right? Little did Martin know that the power bases were already being built at that very moment, but behind whom would be a story for the not too distant future.

[The Other Castro]

Chris

December 2nd, 2016

“You don’t think this last one is too provocative?”

“That’s what we need to go for, Senator. If you really want to explore a run, you need to show Democrats that you’re someone that can go punch for punch against Trump. I guarantee you someone from his team will respond.”

President-elect Trump had made his latest headline news in speaking with the President of Taiwan, a move that Senator Chris Murphy wanted to capitalize on to get his name out there.

Chris Murphy was well aware of his name recognition problems. It was a challenge he had faced in his 2012 Senate run against Linda McMahon. Connecticut wasn’t a big state, a swing state, or honestly that interesting of a state to most Americans, but that wasn’t going to stop his ambitions.

As luck would have it, Trump campaign manager Kellyanne Conway saw his tweet, and responded in kind on CNN:

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This wouldn’t be the first time that things went Chris Murphy’s way in furthering his 2020 goals, but only time would tell if the country, and the Democratic Party, was ready to choose another Northeastern liberal with a tinge of elitism.

[The Other Castro]

Joe

January 7th, 2017

It had been a month since Joe started talking about running again in 2020, and he was grateful for the reaction to it. People cheered him on, encouraging him to go for it, saying how good a president he would be. Joe Biden knew that he was the right man for the job, and that he would have easily beaten Donald Trump in the general election. He had regretted every second since that fateful day in the Rose Garden when he announced that he would sit the race out.

“Hillary Clinton? God, I should have known better,” he thought to himself.

But still, he remembered why he had declined in the first place. Beau had just died, and he knew in his heart that he didn’t have it in him to run a full campaign at the time. Then again, 2020 was still 4 years away, and 4 years is a lifetime in politics.

The day before, Joe Biden as President of the Senate had read aloud the confirmed votes of the Electoral College, and as expected Donald Trump had won while a record number of faithless votes were cast.

Donald Trump - 302
Hillary Clinton - 223
John Kasich – 13

So that was that. Donald Trump had officially been elected President, and nothing would prevent his inauguration. Maybe that thought, and the great urge among Democrats to already be rid of Trump, was what had caused the 2020 talk to already begin in the media. The biggest thing working against Joe was his age, but even that wasn’t too much worse than the incoming President.

Even if he didn’t end up running, Joe knew that he had keep his name relevant in order to maintain some power in the Democratic Party. Even the slightest missteps could throw their message off track and ensure 8 years of Trump. The Vice President could not let that happen.

[The Other Castro]

Elizabeth

June 21st, 2017

Elizabeth opened an email from one her staffers with the subject line “New Poll #s”. It was Public Policy Polling’s second poll of the hypothetical 2020 Democratic primary field, and once again Elizabeth Warren found herself stuck in third place. However, she was not discouraged by this early indicator. Bernie had heavily hinted to her over the last few months that he would not seek the nomination again, and she had it on good authority that Joe Biden would reach a similar decision. Additionally, she was settling in well in her new position on the Armed Services committee, a spot she had eagerly fought for. Elizabeth was aware of her reputation as a liberal lion on domestic policy, but she needed foreign policy credentials if she wanted to present a full alternative package against Trump. That is, if she actually decided to run.

If she was going to run for President, it wasn’t because she wanted the job for the sake of power. Back in 2011, there were policies that she needed to see through, but could not from just a position on the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau. So she ran for Senate, and now she found herself in a similar position in the aftermath of Trump’s inauguration.

One by one his cabinet picks were confirmed, and she couldn’t help but feel powerless as her fellow Senators put up little resistance. She could handle Chao and Mattis, and could stomach DeVos and Zinke, but the people like Puzder, Ross, and Mnuchin made her blood boil. Senator Elizabeth Warren could only do so much, but President Elizabeth Warren on the other hand…

She hid the thought away as she closed the email. A meeting of the Democratic Caucus on Trump’s Supreme Court shortlist was coming up later in the day, and she needed to do some last minute research on Judges Neil Gorsuch and William Pryor.

[The Other Castro]

Didn't Kasich ask electors not to vote for him? If it weren't for that, he might have been able to get another 33 electoral votes.

The faithless electors were almost entirely Democrats, and they knew that they wouldn't actually get someone else elected, so it didn't really matter what Kasich wanted.

[The Other Castro]

Andrew

October 4th, 2017

The previous night had been a good one for the Governor of New York. The framework for Andrew Cuomo’s candidacy in 2020 had been in place for years, but now the number of his potential competitors had dwindled by one. Mayor Bill de Blasio, no friend to the Governor, had met his untimely political end after an electoral duel with an ambitious comptroller. 2020 only had room for so many New Yorkers, and Andrew was determined to be one of them.

NYC Democratic Mayoral Primary Runoff
Scott Stringer – 52%
Bill de Blasio – 48%

Though Bill de Blasio had survived politically after an indictment against him was never produced, Democrats were weary of supporting another politician with the scent of scandal around him. The primary runoff finished him off for good. At the same time, Governor Cuomo failed to see the difficulties that such an outcome would pose to him later on in his career path. Corruption was such an old song that Cuomo and countless others could sing along in harmony, and nowhere was it stronger than in Albany. (Sorry for the Hamilton reference)

Andrew hummed a jolly tune that he had long forgotten the name of, as the usual stream of emails came in. Another key staffer was hired, another foreign trip planned, and another step taken to ensure his success in the Democratic primaries to come. He would not make the same mistakes that Hillary had made. The right people had been paid to make sure that did not happen. There would be no last minute FBI announcement to hand Trump another victory from the jaws of defeat.

At a deeper level in the pre-campaign of Andrew Cuomo, opposition research operations were already taking place against his future opponents. The information on Senator Gillibrand he would hold until the time was right, but a particular Senator from New Jersey needed a warning shot before he got too big. Many months later, it would end up being a mistake Cory Booker never let Andrew Cuomo forget.

[The Other Castro]

This is sooooo well written, I'm really digging it!

Thank you!

[The Other Castro]

Cory

November 7th, 2017

Cory was working the crowd at the Phil Murphy victory party when the call from CNN came in. For the first time since Donald Trump’s election to the presidency, Democrats had reason to celebrate. They had grown increasingly frustrated by the developments in Congress, as every Cabinet appointment was confirmed with minimal debate. Even Secretary of State Tillerson’s hearings were met with an unexpected lack of drama as Senators Rubio, Graham, and McCain all voted for confirmation.

Democrats itched for a fight, but at the same time needed to show support for Minority Leader Schumer in his talks with President Trump on infrastructure. However, once the conversation turned to Obamacare repeal and immigration restrictions, the gloves would finally be able to come off. For now, they rejoiced in whatever victories they could score.

Along with the gain in the New Jersey Governorship, Democrats had maintained control in Virginia with the election of Ralph Northam. They had also made small but important gains in the legislatures of both states, as well as in the newly redrawn districts of North Carolina.

New Jersey Gubernatorial Election
Phil Murphy – 54%
Jack Ciattarelli – 43%

Virginia Gubernatorial Election
Ralph Northam – 49%
Ed Gillespie – 45%

Most important for Cory Booker, however, was his gain of an important executive ally in the Democratic wars to come. But, which battles would he fight in? Cory faced a predicament similar to candidates that had run in previous years, in that he would be up for reelection in the Senate at the same time as a possible Presidential run. The filing deadline wasn’t until March 30th of 2020, well after several primaries would take place. For now, he would commit to running for reelection, and get over the filing bridge when the time came.

As Governor-Elect Murphy approached the stage, Senator Booker glanced for a moment back at Wolf Blitzer’s furry face filling the television screen. Names scrolled along the bottom, revealing the winners and losers of the year. Most of them gave Cory hope for the future, like Mayor-elect Stringer and Congresswoman-elect Sally Harrell of Georgia’s 6th congressional district. It had been a decent election for Democrats, but the true test of their strength as an opposition party would come in 2018.
 

Later that night…

Cory continued to stare at the compromising picture of himself attached in the email. The only people that had seen it were him and his chief of staff, and neither knew the true identity of the sender. Whoever the slimy bastard was, Cory Booker would not be deterred. The photograph had been taken from the back, but Cory, and more importantly the person with him, could still easily be recognized. He angrily closed the email as the image of the short blonde hair left his sight.

[The Other Castro]

Very well written! Keep it up!

Thank you!

[The Other Castro]

Amy

January 23rd, 2018

Amy hoped for the best as she watched the replay of her speech on MSNBC. 20 minutes earlier, she had given the Democratic response to President Trump’s first State of the Union address. She caught bits and pieces of her speech as she multitasked by finishing some emails.

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Amy Klobuchar thought she had done pretty well, though her voice did sound a little too folksy in the response. But, maybe that was what the Democratic Party needed right now. The DNC under Keith Ellison had been making good inroads in places some Democrats were ready to give up. It was nice to have her Minnesota colleague running the operations of the party, and very soon it might come in handy. The Midwest was a region Democrats would be desperate to win back in 2020, and a candidate from Minnesota could have a leg up on the party’s New Yorkers and Californians.

Though Amy thought of herself as good on paper, she also knew there was plenty of work to do to establish herself as a presidential contender in time for the primaries. Her selection for the Democratic response to the State of the Union was a great gift, and would help get her name out there. For this year’s midterms, she planned to travel around the country and help her colleagues win reelection.

The Senate map was daunting, but most of her fellow Senators were holding their own. Republicans were getting formidable recruits in Missouri and West Virginia with Ann Wagner and Patrick Morrisey, but Democrats were determined to turn 2018 into a wave election against Trump. They had achieved encouraging recruits as well in Arizona and Texas with Kyrsten Sinema and Beto O'Rourke.

President Trump’s job approval rating of 43% would work well enough for Democrats come election time, though they were determined to drag that number lower still if they truly wanted to regain the Senate. As long as nothing too unexpected happened, they would be in good shape come November.

[The Other Castro]

The people demand more

The people shall have it.

[The Other Castro]

Tulsi

July 15th, 2018

The young Congresswoman from Hawaii was quite pleased with herself that morning. She felt little regret for what she had done. Even when she heard the sadness in Senator Hirono’s voice, she maintained her resolve. Politics is a game for the strong, and Mazie just couldn’t handle it.

An hour earlier, Tulsi Gabbard had completed the last in a series of phone conversations with the Senior Senator from Hawaii. Like a homicidal masseuse, Tulsi liked to apply enough pressure until the kill was secured. She had made it clear to Senator Hirono her intention to run in the coming senate primary, and gave two choices: Drop out, or face humiliation. It was an ultimatum that Senate Democrats were not used to receiving.

Tulsi Gabbard had been running an operation on the sidelines over the past few months, and had gathered data to demonstrate to the Senator that she was outraising her and outpolling her in hypothetical primary polling. At the risk of being defeated in a primary, Mazie Hirono had at last decided to drop out. Her decision would be announced in a few days, after which Tulsi would heroically swoop in. Privately, this was one more step in her path to the Presidency. As ambitious as she was, even she thought 2020 would probably be too soon to run as an announcement would be required just months after taking office in the Senate.

Apparently Tulsi had been too deep in thought, as her phone had been buzzing long enough for one of her interns to inform her of it. She checked her phone and realized there were 6 new texts. She read a few words of the first message and immediately turned on CNN.

“…and I am told that the total death toll has now risen to 15 people, with another 32 suffering serious injuries. It is unknown at this time how many, if any, of these victims were members of the teams themselves. For those just joining in, we have breaking news out of Moscow today where there has been some kind of dual explosion at the final match of the FIFA World Cup. According to witness accounts and footage of the event, two large blasts occurred at around the same time with one in the stands and another closer to the field. We are told that this happened almost directly after Argentina’s victory over Germany, and that multiple athletes may have been wounded or killed as well – OK – We can now confirm that two of the members of the German team have died, and one player for Argentina has also died. As of this moment, we are still working on the identities of these individuals and other members of the crowd that have lost their lives in this horrific event.”

Tulsi’s head swam with ideas. A terrorist attack would be a great opportunity for her to engage in foreign policy debates. She would wait for Trump’s daily scheduled tweet, and then respond in a supportive manner. She had been cultivating an above-politics/team player persona during the Trump Administration, and voters loved bipartisan moves like that. Perhaps attacks like these would even allow her to move up her presidential timetable. That would be a decision for another day.

[The Other Castro]

Did you just kill Messi?

Don't worry, he only suffered a few superficial scratches.

[The Other Castro]

By the way, I doubt Hawaii would actually let her primary Hirono. Hawaii loves its incumbents

I guess Hirono didn't want to take the chance. Whether Gabbard would have actually won a primary had it happened is another story.

[The Other Castro]

Sherrod

October 6th, 2018

His aides told him not to worry about the recent polling. A slight Trump bump was to be expected after the recent terrorist attacks in Moscow, Prague, and now Amsterdam, and Josh Mandel was just reaping some temporary benefits from that. But still, Sherrod Brown was a little worried. His consistent leads had shrunk somewhat, and though the political environment seemed like it was going to favor Democrats, Sherrod had a clear memory of the 2010 and 2014 massacres. Trump's low 40s approval rating meant nothing if Democrats wouldn't show up to vote. 

Senator Brown was not the only Democrat concerned with reelection chances. His colleagues in North Dakota, Missouri, Indiana, West Virginia, and Montana were all running in very tight races at a time when Democrats needed every Senate seat they could get. At the same time, Democratic challengers in Arizona and Nevada were doing well enough to render those races tied as well, especially thanks to Senator Flake’s primary defeat to State Rep. Kelli Ward, and the recruitment of Stephen Cloobeck to face off against Senator Heller. The last midterms during a Republican administration were 12 years ago, and political operatives were not making any assumptions after the gut punch of 2016. The party in the White House was supposed to lose seats, but recent midterms had also made Democrats weary of the dangers in low turnout races.

Fortunately for Sherrod Brown, Ohio had become a key region in the rebirth of the Democratic Party, and many of his fellow Democrats had been happy to stop by and campaign with him. With their own races apparently locked up, Brown had been visited by everyone from Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren to New York Governor Andrew Cuomo. Though grateful for the help, Sherrod was also aware of their ulterior motivations in coming to Ohio. It would be a delegate-rich state relatively early on in the 2020 primaries, and its importance was even more stressed by the new focus of Democrats on reconnecting with white working-class voters.

For those reasons, many of the potential candidates had been gauging his interest in running for the nomination. However, Sherrod Brown had absolutely no interest in running for anything other than reelection. The presidency was not something he desired, and he had privately been urging other progressive candidates to run. His heart broke on the night Donald Trump won his state by eight points, and he believed there were plenty of other Democrats with the appeal necessary to bring it back into the Democratic column. Sherrod thought about his future over the next two years and all the work that would be necessary to put the country back on track. But first, he had to win reelection next month.

[The Other Castro]

RIP Sherrod. I do like that you're using people who aren't running for President, though!

Thanks, yeah I figured I might as well check in with potential candidates leaning against runs both to get their reasons and because they won't be as prevalent later on.

[The Other Castro]

Al (Part 1/2)

November 6th, 2018

Al Franken watched as Amy Klobuchar took the stage to proclaim victory in her fight for reelection. She had confided in him in the past, and he knew what her next moves would be. Television screens surrounding the stage showed election results coming in, as his colleague began her speech by talking about the repudiation offered that night to President Trump.

At first Al wondered why he only had access to the Senate results and not the results for Governor and House races as well. Then he remembered that he was a plot device character being used for midterm election exposition, and that the author did not want to waste all his work on just one point of view chapter. Comedians are very self-aware people like that. After that brief existential moment, Al Franken returned his gaze to the races. His internal monologue provided additional details about the notable races.

Arizona:
Still scorned by his lack of support in 2016, President Trump privately supported Senator Jeff Flake’s ousting by former State Rep. Kelli Ward in the primary, and with Treasurer Jeff DeWitt’s public support Ward became the nominee. Whether Flake could have defeated Democratic Congresswoman Kyrsten Sinema was unknown, but that question for Kelli Ward was swiftly answered as Democrats gained a key Senate seat.

Kyrsten Sinema – 49% (D+1)
Kelli Ward – 46%

California:
After Senator Diane Feinstein announced her retirement, the Democratic field was dominated by billionaire hedge fund manager Tom Steyer and former Congresswoman Linda Sanchez, who was running again after her 2016 loss. Once again, two Democrats advanced to the runoff, with Steyer defeating Sanchez in a similar fashion.

Tom Steyer – 58%
Linda Sanchez – 42%

Connecticut:
Chris Murphy – 62%
Augie Wolf – 36%

Delaware:
Senator Tom Carper decided to retire, and the entrance of Congresswoman Lisa Blunt Rochester cleared the field and allowed her to easily coast to victory.

Lisa Blunt Rochester – 59%
Ken Simpler – 37%

Florida:
Term limited Governor Rick Scott entered the race against Senator Bill Nelson, and quickly secured the nomination. After spending millions of dollars of his own money, Scott made the race closer than expected but still came up short, giving Nelson a fourth term.

Bill Nelson – 51%
Rick Scott – 46%

Hawaii:
With the threat of a competitive primary looming over her, Senator Mazie Hirono decided to retire. Congresswoman Tulsi Gabbard joined the now open race and easily defeated perennial candidate John Roco.

Tulsi Gabbard – 71%
John Roco – 25%

Indiana:
Senator Joe Donnelly had been considered one of the most vulnerable Senate Democrats up for reelection, and his odds were not helped by the entrance of Congresswoman Susan Brooks. In one of the bright spots for Republicans that midterm, Brooks successfully defeated Donnelly for the first party flip of the night.

Susan Brooks – 49% (R+1)
Joe Donnelly – 45%

Maine:
Outgoing Governor Paul LePage had implied for months that he would challenge Senator Angus King, but at the last moment decided to retire from politics instead. Though the state had recently switched to a ranked voting system, a second round proved unnecessary after Democrats opted not to field a candidate and allowed King to easily defeat State Senator Eric Brakey in the first round.

Angus King – 61%
Eric Brakey – 33%

Maryland:
Ben Cardin – 60%
Chris Chaffee – 37%

Massachusetts:
With no other Republican daring to enter the race, Curt Schilling was left as the only Republican to challenge Senator Elizabeth Warren. As expected, Warren made a bloody sock out of the former pitcher.

Elizabeth Warren – 62%
Curt Schilling – 38%

[The Other Castro]

Al (Part 2/2)

November 6th, 2018

Michigan:
While initially thought of as a potentially competitive race, Senator Debbie Stabenow handily defeated her 2006 opponent Mike Bouchard as part of the overall backlash against Republicans in Michigan.

Debbie Stabenow – 57%
Mike Bouchard – 41%

Minnesota:
Amy Klobuchar – 55%
Erik Paulsen – 41%

Mississippi:
Roger Wicker – 62%
Bill Marcy – 35%

Missouri:
Senator Claire McCaskill had seen success in the midterms of 2006 and the Great Akin-ing of 2012, and Democrats hoped that she could replicate her previous victories. However, in the other major Republican gain of the night, McCaskill’s lucky streak finally ran out at the hands of Congresswoman Ann Wagner.

Ann Wagner – 49% (R+1)
Claire McCaskill – 47%

Montana:
With Congressman Ryan Zinke foregoing a run to lead the Interior Department, Senator Jon Tester faced a less formidable opponent in former Navy SEAL Rob O’Neill. Confirming Republican fears of a missed opportunity, Tester comfortably defeated O’Neill.

Jon Tester – 50%
Rob O’Neill – 43%

Nebraska:
In a long shot attempt to win a seat in deep Republican territory against Senator Deb Fischer, state Democrats had their own candidate back down in favor of now independent candidate Brad Ashford. Their plan failed after Ashford announced he would caucus with Democrats if elected, negating the appeal of his independence and leading to his defeat.

Deb Fischer – 58%
Brad Ashford – 40%

Nevada:
Senator Dean Heller had long been considered a vulnerable incumbent Republican that year, but the problem was that there were almost no Democrats to challenge him. After Congresswomen Dina Titus decided not to run, Nevada Democrats rejoiced when businessman Stephen Cloobeck entered the race at the last moment. With the Reid machine still functioning, Cloobeck won the other major Democratic gain of the night.

Stephen Cloobeck – 48% (D+1)
Dean Heller – 46%

New Jersey:
Though he had initially announced his plans to run again, Senator Bob Menendez decided to retire. Congressman Frank Pallone finally got his promotion after big name Republicans stayed out of the race, leaving only former State Assemblywoman Alison Littell McHose.

Frank Pallone – 57%
Alison Littell McHose – 41%

New Mexico:
Martin Heinrich – 54%
Richard Berry – 43%

New York:
Kirsten Gillibrand – 69%
Adele Malpass – 29%

North Dakota:
In another example of President Trump acting out of step with the best interests of Senate Republicans, Trump consistently retweeted Senator Heitkamp approvingly throughout the year as she tweeted about her own approval for some of his policy agendas. Even as Republicans celebrated their recruitment of Congressman Kevin Cramer, Trump’s implicit support of Heitkamp in a state he won by a landslide in 2016 allowed Democrats to avoid a crucial loss in the state.

Heidi Heitkamp – 51%
Kevin Cramer – 48%

Ohio:
With this rematch of 2012, Senator Sherrod Brown once again battled Treasurer Josh Mandel for the key Senate seat. A close race throughout the year though with a slight advantage for Brown, this election was a nailbiter until the end and set the record for most expensive election in Ohio history. Despite the heavy Republican trend in the 2016 election, Brown ended up defeating Mandel by nearly the exact same margin as six years before.

Sherrod Brown – 51%
John Mandel – 45%

Pennsylvania:
Bob Casey Jr. – 55%
Pat Meehan – 44%

Rhode Island:
Sheldon Whitehouse – 67%
Raymond McKay – 33%

Tennessee:
Bob Corker – 61%
Terry Adams – 34%

Texas:
Heading into the midterms, Democrats knew that a longshot bid at Cruz’s seat was necessary in any possible path toward a majority. At first, there was major potential at an upset with the entrances of Independent candidate Matthew Dowd and Democratic Congressman Beto O’Rourke. Though Dowd only ever polled in the single digits, it was enough to make the race competitive by November. In the end, however, Dowd’s impact was mostly negligible and Cruz defeated O’Rourke by a smaller but still sizable margin.

Ted Cruz – 50%
Beto O’Rourke – 42%
Matthew Dowd – 5%

Utah:
Though he had previously announced his retirement, Senator Orrin Hatch changed his mind and decided to run for one last term. Hatch was ripe for a takedown, but Republican Jon Huntsman and Democrats Jim Matheson and Ben McAdams all declined to run. A 2006 rematch with Democrat Pete Ashdown appeared likely until former Presidential candidate Evan McMullin announced an Independent run for the seat. Vowing to caucus with Republicans if elected, McMullin campaigned tirelessly on a daily basis in his efforts to knock out the longest serving Republican Senator in U.S. history. In a major upset, McMullin defeated Hatch and Ashdown by a slim plurality, and became the first Independent Republican elected to the Senate since James Buckley in 1970.

Evan McMullin – 38% (I+1)
Orrin Hatch – 33%
Pete Ashdown – 29%

Vermont:
Bernie Sanders – 70%
Bruce Lisman – 26%

Virginia:
Tim Kaine – 54%
Pete Snyder – 45%

Washington:
Maria Cantwell – 61%
Chris Vance – 39%

West Virginia:
Like with Tester and Heitkamp, Senator Joe Manchin was lent a hand by President Trump in the heart of coal country. Throughout 2017 and 2018, Manchin had resisted the persuasions of the Trump Administration to switch parties, but had still played along on key measures. He supported several cabinet appointments, voted for tax reform bills, and even cooperated with Senate Republicans on new solutions for replacing Obamacare. In turn, he was able to use this goodwill with the President to show his constituents that he had their interests at heart, and wasn’t just a partisan politician. Even against a strong opponent in Attorney General Patrick Morrisey, he managed to win by a larger margin than expected.

Joe Manchin – 51%
Patrick Morrisey – 45%

Wisconsin:
Tammy Baldwin – 53%
Sean Duffy – 44%

Wyoming:
John Barrasso – 72%
Rex Wilde – 23%

While they had not accomplished a net gain of seats, let alone a takeover of the Senate chamber, Democrats considered themselves winners that night. Al could see how this would be spun: Republicans would say that they succeeded in keeping the Senate 52-48 even in a midterm year with an unpopular president, while Democrat would say that they mostly held their own in deeply unfriendly territory while picking off two swing state Republicans.

In maintaining their at-risk seats, a winning Democratic nominee in 2020 could possibly come into office with the Senate and House on his or her side. Who that candidate would be, Al Franken had no idea. He did not completely understand the supposed hype around his own potential candidacy. Sure, an SNL-alum might make a great foil to the comic-book villain president, but at the same time he thought Democrats should be the ones to promote serious discussion in contrast to the absurdity of Trump. If he were to run, which he had already ruled out internally for 2020 in deference to his fellow Minnesotan, he wanted it to be on his merits as a United States Senator and not on his chops as a sketch comedian. Maybe next time.

As he watched Senator Klobuchar finish her victory speech, Al received a call from the celebrating Governor-elect Chris Coleman, who conveniently informed him of the results of the other elections taking place that night.

[The Other Castro]

Hilarious, and well-written!

Brilliant! 😝

Thank you!

[The Other Castro]

Kamala (Part 1/3)

November 7th, 2018

“…well I certainly hope so. Yes. Sounds great. Congratulations again Gavin, I’m sure you’ll make an excellent Governor. I look forward to speaking again soon.”

There was nothing quite like the wonderful morning that followed an incredible evening. It was nearly the exact opposite of how Democrats felt on election night in 2016. Though at the time she had just won a Senate seat, Kamala Harris found it difficult to get out of bed the morning after. This morning however, she practically sprang from her sheets with the energy of a cheetah on a sugar high. It felt good to win again.

Kamala saw the 2018 Senate results in a glass half full manner. She had been pretty pessimistic about Democrats’ chances after 2016, so she was pleasantly surprised when they had no net losses with such a horrible map to work with. That was not why she was giddy though. That honor would go to the results of the gubernatorial elections. She pulled up a Politico recap of those races on her laptop and relived the excitement of the previous night. She wasn’t even bothered by the fact that only some of the races went further into detail than others, and as a reader she felt that enough work had already been put into the article for publication.

Alabama:
Young Boozer – 59%
Sue Bell Cobb – 41%

Alaska:
Continuing their strange partnership, Independent Governor Bill Walker and Democratic Lt. Governor Byron Mallot ran for a second term. Despite much speculation, former Senator Mark Begich did not run as a Democrat for the governorship. Facing the reality of their beneficial alliance and not wanting to throw the race to a Republican, state Democrats once again backed Walker instead of running a candidate of their own. With relatively high job approval numbers, Walker comfortably defeated Republican State Senator Charlie Huggins.

Bill Walker – 51%
Charlie Huggins – 43%

Arizona:
After Arizona’s surprisingly close results in 2016, Democrats thought they had a serious chance to take down Governor Doug Ducey. However, their preferred candidate Phoenix Mayor Greg Stanton chose to sit out the race, leaving State Senator Steve Farley as the nominee. A well run campaign that avoided being thrown off message allowed Ducey to win a second term even as the Senate seat fell to Democratic hands.

Doug Ducey – 52%
Steve Farley – 43%

Arkansas:
Asa Hutchinson – 54%
Conner Eldridge – 43%

California:
With Governor Jerry Brown being term limited out of office, the race focused on Democrats Gavin Newsom and Antonio Villarigosa, and Republican Kevin Faulconer. At one point venture capitalist Peter Thiel considered entering the ring as a Republican, but ultimately decided against it. Lt. Governor Newsom finished first in the blanket primary as expected, but second place was awarded to San Diego Mayor Faulconer after he finished just ahead of former Los Angelas Mayor Villaraigosa. Though he ran a hard fought campaign, Faulconer was simply no match for the Democratic power in the Golden State and was crushed by Newsom in the general election.

Gavin Newsom – 62%
Kevin Faulconer – 38%

Colorado:
Ed Perlmutter – 51%
George Brauchler – 44%

Connecticut:
As one of the most unpopular governors in the country, Dan Malloy answered the prayers of many Connecticut Democrats when he announced that he would not run for a third term. Such a declaration was expected for some time, and his own fellow party member Middletown Mayor Dan Drew had already entered the race months earlier. The announcement was immediately followed by Democratic entrances of Comptroller Kevin Lembo, Environmental Lawyer Dan Esty, Senate President Pro Tem. Kevin Looney, and Consumer Protection Commissioner Jonathan Harris. The Republican side was even more crowded with State Rep. Prasad Srinivasan, Trumbull First Selectman Tim Herbst, attorney Peter Lumaj, Shelton Mayor Mark Lauretti, Danbury Mayor Mark Boughton, State Sen. Tony Hwang, and State Sen. Rob Kane all running. After being whittled down by the conventions and the primaries, the number of candidates shrank to two as Kevin Lembo was pitted against Tim Herbst. The race was relatively close, as it had been in previous elections, but once again Connecticut’s Democratic lean kept the statehouse away from Republicans.

Kevin Lembo – 52%
Tim Herbst – 47%

Florida:
Florida Democrats initially celebrated when former Congresswoman Gwen Graham agreed to run for Governor, but they were shocked when she was defeated by attorney John Morgan in the primary. In a manner representative of the Florida Democratic Party, they felt scorned by the primary defeat of their preferred candidate and failed to fully back up Morgan in his race with Agriculture Commissioner Adam Putnam. Despite their inactivity, or perhaps because of it, Morgan managed to win anyway in the closest race of the night.

John Morgan – 49% (D+1)
Adam Putnam – 48%

Georgia:
Along with Arizona, Georgia was another Republican state that Democrats were inspired to fight for after its relative closeness in 2016. The entrances of Republican Lt. Governor Casey Cagle and Democratic House Minority Leader Stacey Abrams cleared the fields for both parties, and allowed for a long general election campaign to begin even before the primaries. While Democrats failed to take down Ducey in Arizona, the open seat in Georgia along with the state’s Democratic trend combined with Trump’s unpopularity to send a Democrat to the Governor’s mansion for the first time in 20 years.

Stacey Abrams – 50% (D+1)
Casey Cagle – 47%

Hawaii:
David Ige – 98%
Write-ins – 2%

Idaho:
Russ Fulcher – 54%
A.J. Balukoff – 41%

Illinois:
Incumbent Governor Bruce Rauner had pledged to personally spend several million dollars in his campaign, so Democrats decided that the best course of action would be to nominate a billionaire of their own. Having flirted for months with a run, venture capitalist J.B. Pritzker entered the race with a promise to self-fund his campaign. After a long and negative battle, and one of the most expensive governor races in American history, Rauner’s stint in the deeply Democratic state was cut short.

J.B. Pritzker – 51% (D+1)
Bruce Rauner – 45%

Iowa:
Kim Reynolds – 53%
Andy McGuire – 44%

Kansas
Kansas was potentially ripe for the picking after eight years of a deeply unpopular Brownback Administration, but Democrats struggled in finding good candidates to run. While they could not persuade 2014 nominee Paul Davis to run again, they did at least get what they considered a somewhat decent recruit in former U.S. Attorney Barry Grissom. On the Republican side, a tough battle between Lt. Governor Jeff Colyer and Secretary of State Kris Kobach eventually ended in victory for the controversial Kobach. Kansas Democrats fought tirelessly to prevent Kobach, a man they hated with a passion, from becoming Governor, but that is exactly what happened in November. In the end, Kris Kobach successfully distanced himself from Governor Brownback’s unpopularity while taking advantage of the Republican lean in the state.

Kris Kobach – 52%
Barry Grissom – 44%

[The Other Castro]

Kamala (Part 2/3)

November 7th, 2018

Maine:
The open Governor race in 2018 was more than just a pickup opportunity for Democrats, but also an experiment in new electoral systems in the United States. With a new ranked voting system in place, Mainers did not have to fear spoiled ballots in voting for Independent candidates. Testing out the new mechanism were former Democratic Senate President Justin Alfond, Republican Party Chairman Rick Bennett, and Independent businessman Shawn Moody. Perhaps because of the ranked voting, Moody outperformed his polling average on election night enough to force a second round. After the first round votes were counted, Moody was eliminated due to his last place finish, and his votes were redistributed as per the rankings. Reaching the same conclusion as the first round, Alfond was elected Governor of Maine.

Round 1
Justin Alfond – 46%
Rick Bennett – 42%
Shawn Moody – 12%

Round 2
Justin Alfond – 53% (D+1)
Rick Bennett – 47%

Maryland:
Throughout the year, Maryland had appeared as a longshot for Democrats despite the state’s heavy lean towards them. Republican Governor Larry Hogan was very popular, and regularly averaged leads in the mid-teens over his Democratic opponent Baltimore County Executive Kevin Kamenetz. Though the race did somewhat tighten up near the end, it was largely ignored by the Democratic Governors Association in favor of more competitive races elsewhere, and the unlikely Governor Hogan was reelected.

Larry Hogan – 52%
Kevin Kamenetz – 44%

Massachusetts:
In a situation somewhat similar to the one in Maryland, Democrats saw unexpected difficulty in taking down a Republican in such a Democratic state. Governor Charlie Baker was also popular, and although he led Democrats in every poll, he rarely polled over 50% given the large number of undecided voters. Sensing an opportunity and determined to make the race competitive, Democrats rallied around Newton Mayor Setti Warren as soon as he jumped in. The race narrowed considerably in the final months as Warren even took the lead in some polls, but the close race was ultimately won by Governor Baker.

Charlie Baker – 50%
Setti Warren – 46%

Michigan:
Term-limited Governor Rick Snyder was leaving office with a poor job approval rating that was dropping lower by the day, and Democrats saw Michigan as a key battleground in their quest to regain power in the Midwest. Republicans were well equipped with Attorney General Bill Schuette as their nominee, but Democrats had a winning candidate themselves in former Senate Minority Leader Gretchen Whitmer. With disapproval of Snyder running rampant, and the Flint water crisis still fresh in the minds of voters, Whitmer defeated Schuette by a larger margin than expected.

Gretchen Whitmer – 51% (D+1)
Bill Schuette – 46%

Minnesota:
Chris Coleman – 49%
Matt Dean – 45%

Nebraska:
Pete Ricketts – 99%
Write-ins - 1%

Nevada:
The race for Governor in Nevada had been expected to not only be one of the most competitive elections that year, but to also have the most competitive primaries. As it turned out, both party’s primaries became dull affairs as Republicans Mark Amodei and Mark Hutchinson, and Democrat Stephen Cloobeck declined to run, leaving just Republican Attorney General Adam Laxalt to face off against Democratic Clark County Commissioner Steve Sisolak. As Nevada political expert Jon Ralston provided commentary throughout the duration of the race, Sisolak earned healthy early voting numbers and was effectively tied with Laxalt heading into Election Day. Matching Cloobeck’s performance in the Senate race, Steve Sisolak became the first Democrat elected Governor of Nevada since 1994.

Steve Sisolak – 48% (D+1)
Adam Laxalt – 45%

New Hampshire:
Incumbent Republican Governor Chris Sununu had been in office for less than two years, but was also running for reelection due to New Hampshire’s two year terms. In an attempt to elevate another Shaheen to higher office, Portsmouth City Councilor Stefany Shaheen ran for and won the Democratic nomination. Sununu’s term had been unremarkable and he ran away from defending President Trump in an attempt to shield himself from Trump’s negative approvals. Like with former Senator Kelly Ayotte, this move doomed Sununu in The Granite State and granted Shaheen a slim plurality. The only thing that went wrong for Shaheen was when a wild, deranged man with the lettering of “Tennessee Volunteer” on his shirt attempted to attack Shaheen during her victory speech. The police tazed the man repeatedly as he confusingly yelled at her to stop climbing, kicked him repeatedly for good measure, and then removed him from the building.

Stefany Shaheen – 48% (D+1)
Chris Sununu – 46%

New Mexico:
New Mexico had been Republican since 2010 even as Obama and Clinton carried the state comfortably, but Democrats hoped that a midterm during a Republican administration would change that. Fortunately for them, Congresswoman Michelle Lujan Grisham entered the race and quickly locked up the nomination to face Republican Lt. Governor John Sanchez. With the Democratic lean of the state finally catching up the Governorship, New Mexico flipped in one of the more confident pickups of the night.

Michelle Lujan Grisham – 53% (D+1)
John Sanchez – 47%

New York:
Andrew Cuomo – 58%
Marcus Malinaro – 39%

Ohio:
Ohio had its fair share of intraparty fighting, as seen in the Kasich/Trump proxy Chairman battle early in 2017, and later in the 2018 Republican primary for Governor. In this instance, Trump’s preferences won out as Secretary of State Jon Husted emerged victorious from the crowded primary to face Democratic Senate Minority Leader Joe Schiavoni. Similar to previous elections, the Democratic candidate ran a surprisingly lackluster campaign in this potentially winnable state, and Ohio’s Republican status was locked for the next four years.

Jon Husted - 51%
Joe Schiavoni - 45%